Baseball Musings: Probabilistic Model of Range, Centerfielders, 2008

November 08, 2008

Probabilistic Model of Range, Centerfielders, 2008

The third position presented in this year's Probabilistic Model of Range study belongs to centerfielders. First, the overall team numbers:

Team Centerfielders PMR, 2008, Visit Smooth Distance Model, 2008 data only
Team	In Play	Actual Outs	Predicted Outs	DER	Predicted DER	Ratio
Mets	4335	435	422.51	0.100	0.097	102.96
Rays	4264	451	438.07	0.106	0.103	102.95
Phillies	4396	389	378.54	0.088	0.086	102.76
Twins	4607	488	475.27	0.106	0.103	102.68
Athletics	4285	444	433.07	0.104	0.101	102.52
Reds	4299	413	404.02	0.096	0.094	102.22
Angels	4374	429	421.94	0.098	0.096	101.67
Brewers	4354	406	400.20	0.093	0.092	101.45
Astros	4292	427	420.91	0.099	0.098	101.45
Mariners	4512	435	429.86	0.096	0.095	101.19
Rockies	4535	405	400.30	0.089	0.088	101.17
Yankees	4349	407	402.92	0.094	0.093	101.01
Diamondbacks	4224	402	398.46	0.095	0.094	100.89
Dodgers	4265	377	374.62	0.088	0.088	100.64
Red Sox	4232	406	404.43	0.096	0.096	100.39
Marlins	4338	438	436.46	0.101	0.101	100.35
Braves	4383	360	361.20	0.082	0.082	99.67
Pirates	4683	433	434.85	0.092	0.093	99.58
Indians	4513	412	414.22	0.091	0.092	99.46
Orioles	4540	440	442.64	0.097	0.097	99.40
Padres	4419	453	456.46	0.103	0.103	99.24
Rangers	4667	451	456.50	0.097	0.098	98.79
Cubs	4156	391	396.42	0.094	0.095	98.63
Giants	4232	454	460.66	0.107	0.109	98.55
White Sox	4409	362	369.04	0.082	0.084	98.09
Blue Jays	4215	381	389.50	0.090	0.092	97.82
Tigers	4536	450	460.98	0.099	0.102	97.62
Nationals	4417	426	439.80	0.096	0.100	96.86
Royals	4413	417	436.29	0.094	0.099	95.58
Cardinals	4597	388	409.47	0.084	0.089	94.76

It was a good year for the Mets and the Rays. I find it interesting that the Rangers rank so low, as a number of people noted Josh Hamilton's defense this season. The next table will show where he ranks as an individual:

Individual Centerfielders PMR, 2008, Visit Smooth Distance Model, 2008 data only (1000 balls in play)
Player	In Play	Actual Outs	Predicted Outs	DER	Predicted DER	Ratio
Rajai Davis	1483	153	142.55	0.103	0.096	107.33
Ichiro Suzuki	1887	195	186.20	0.103	0.099	104.72
B.J. Upton	3642	378	362.20	0.104	0.099	104.36
Carlos Gonzalez	1585	176	169.00	0.111	0.107	104.14
Carlos Gomez	3988	437	422.56	0.110	0.106	103.42
Carlos Beltran	4171	418	407.47	0.100	0.098	102.58
Marlon Byrd	1372	149	145.28	0.109	0.106	102.56
Gregor Blanco	1495	128	124.87	0.086	0.084	102.51
Brian Anderson	1295	102	99.83	0.079	0.077	102.17
Willy Taveras	3124	282	276.52	0.090	0.089	101.98
Jacoby Ellsbury	1660	171	168.01	0.103	0.101	101.78
Torii Hunter	3587	350	344.29	0.098	0.096	101.66
Chris Young	4091	393	387.93	0.096	0.095	101.31
Andruw Jones	1481	133	131.63	0.090	0.089	101.04
Shane Victorino	3619	314	310.92	0.087	0.086	100.99
Michael Bourn	3051	291	289.00	0.095	0.095	100.69
Melky Cabrera	2919	272	270.56	0.093	0.093	100.53
Corey Patterson	2388	242	241.55	0.101	0.101	100.19
Alfredo Amezaga	1451	146	145.75	0.101	0.100	100.17
Grady Sizemore	4199	382	382.73	0.091	0.091	99.81
Adam Jones	3487	337	337.64	0.097	0.097	99.81
Matt Kemp	2425	209	209.73	0.086	0.086	99.65
Coco Crisp	2534	234	235.17	0.092	0.093	99.50
Jeremy Reed	1439	132	132.92	0.092	0.092	99.31
Cody Ross	2561	254	255.96	0.099	0.100	99.24
Aaron Rowand	3750	411	414.28	0.110	0.110	99.21
Mike Cameron	3174	293	295.47	0.092	0.093	99.16
Jim Edmonds	2420	242	244.43	0.100	0.101	99.00
Alex Rios	1531	156	158.34	0.102	0.103	98.52
Jody Gerut	1816	189	191.84	0.104	0.106	98.52
Mark Kotsay	2145	173	176.54	0.081	0.082	98.00
Reed Johnson	1618	144	147.07	0.089	0.091	97.91
Nate McLouth	4228	380	388.88	0.090	0.092	97.72
Scott Hairston	1152	114	116.69	0.099	0.101	97.69
Josh Hamilton	2977	268	274.44	0.090	0.092	97.65
Vernon Wells	2582	217	222.72	0.084	0.086	97.43
Joey Gathright	2242	197	202.50	0.088	0.090	97.28
Curtis Granderson	3740	366	379.16	0.098	0.101	96.53
Nick Swisher	1650	138	144.00	0.084	0.087	95.84
Lastings Milledge	3632	348	365.21	0.096	0.101	95.29
Rick Ankiel	2433	213	224.60	0.088	0.092	94.83
Skip Schumaker	1760	136	143.45	0.077	0.082	94.81
Ryan Sweeney	1053	95	102.85	0.090	0.098	92.37
David DeJesus	1524	151	163.83	0.099	0.108	92.17

It was a very good year to be a centerfielder named Carlos. B.J. Upton, however, gets the nod as the best everyday DF. Looking at individuals, it becomes apparent why the Cardinals rated so poorly at the position. Skip Shumaker and Rick Ankiel were equally below average.

As for Josh Hamilton, he ranks 35th out of 44 fielders in the study. He's going to be worth exploring in more detail, since I suspect people who watch him give him better marks.

Posted by David Pinto at 06:35 PM | Probabilistic Model of Range | TrackBack (0)

Comments

What is also interesting is that Carlos Gomez was in the Mets system and traded for Santana. He rated right there with Beltran. Michael Bourn was on the Phillies and traded for Brad Lidge. He is right next to Victorino. Two guys with limited experience in the show traded for pitching because each team had major leaguers, who ended up having similar defensive performance, in similar positions. And, of course, they had pitching needs and more money to spend. Interesting item to discuss. Prospect CF for established pitching? Arbitration years for free agent money?

But, I digress. I am an admitted Phillies "phan," but I was glad to see Beltran win a Gold Glove. I live in NYC and watch him play throughout the season. There is no better CF in the National League. But, I was glad to see Victorino grab one as well. :)

Posted by: Mike at November 8, 2008 08:07 PM

I was surprised that Granderson came out so low - his numbers in 2006/2007 are average to good. It looks like the big difference is that his distribution was shifted more towards line drives, on which he doesn't do as well. (Presumably his speed lets him track down balls without having to be well-positioned or something.)

Another example of how defense and pitching are intertwined, I guess.

Posted by: Subrata Sircar at November 8, 2008 09:51 PM

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Posted by: LB at November 8, 2008 11:28 PM

There have been some surprising clearly below average guys so far, Granderson here, and A. Hill, J. McDonald, Tulo previously.

Posted by: Sean at November 9, 2008 07:49 AM

David, do you have PMR results for Darin Erstad? I was curious why the Astros' overall PMR result in CF is better than Bourn's.

Posted by: CJ in Austin TX at November 9, 2008 02:26 PM

Erstad came in at 105.93.

Posted by: David Pinto at November 9, 2008 03:07 PM

Question on Sizemore - he has been around average in PMR the past few years but is always near the top in UZR. Any ideas as to where this disconnect stems from?

Posted by: birdo at November 10, 2008 11:36 AM

No, I don't, Birdo. It could be the way I handle park effects. We do use different data sets, also.

Posted by: David Pinto at November 10, 2008 11:58 AM

Interesting that Coco Crisp came out middle-of-the-road. He was dead last among CF qualifiers in zone rating and second-last in range factor.

Just shows how fielding stats can disagree.

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