Baseball Musings
Baseball Musings
November 21, 2005
Beckett To Red Sox?

It looks like Boston moved into the lead for Beckett.

Update: Sorry, I had to post that quickly. The deal with the Rangers appears dead:

"In the end, a deal wasn't there," Rangers general manager Jon Daniels told The Dallas Morning News.

Before Texas was told they were eliminated from the running, Florida asked the Rangers to expand their deal even further, to include hot shortstop prospect Joaquin Arias, along with Blalock and a pitcher. In return, the Rangers would want a second pitcher back -- possibly setup man Guillermo Mota.

The Red Sox will be getting Beckett and Lowell, while the Marlins will receive three players in return:

Hanley Ramirez, right-handed prospect Anibal Sanchez and a minor leaguer pitcher.

So Boston has a new ace. I also take it that Bill Mueller is out of the picture. At this point I'd much rather have Mueller than Lowell. Mike's career took a big plunge in 2005, and I don't believe it's a fluke. Lowell came into 2005 a .277 career hitter. Given his 500 at bats, the 95% confidence interval for Mike's expected hits was 119 to 158. Mike banged out just 118 hits in 2005. Rather than just being bad luck, it looks like Lowell decline was real. The other indicator here is that his line drive percentage was down.

Correction: When I pulled 2002-2004 data from my database, I used the wrong key for batted ball type (I used a translation field instead of the actual type). Lowell's line drive percentage is down the last two years vs. the previous two years, but not by much.

Mike Lowell Line Drive Percentage

Year

Line Drive Percentage

2002

23.0

2003

23.8

2004

19.2

2005

20.6

Line drives fall for hits, and if Lowell can't line them anymore, he's not going to hit much again.

I'm somewhat surprised the Red Sox gave up Ramirez. Obviously, with Renteria at shortstop, Hanley is being blocked. The other thing that strikes me is that Ramirez was not able to repeat his awesome numbers in the low minors in AA. At age 21, he should be getting to the point where he's ready for the majors, not taking a step back in the minors. Could it be Boston lost faith in his future?

Anibal Sanchez may be the real steal here. He's so young, the Baseball Cube doesn't have his age yet. But one has to love a starter who strikes out better than 10 a games while walking less than three.

Long term, this is a good deal for the Marlins. Beckett helps the Red Sox for the next few years (barring injury), but I'm afraid Lowell is going to prove to be useless. The Red Sox seem to be taking the path of winning now rather than rebuilding from within. Maybe that was the heart of the difference between Theo and Lucchino.

Update: Athletics Nation sees the win now attitude in Boston as well:

Beckett and Lowell join the Red Sox while Lucchino and company begin dismantling the farm system Theo built.


Posted by David Pinto at 07:56 PM | Trades | TrackBack (0)
Comments

i think hanley is overvalued. i don't think he's put up the numbers to justify all the hype. losing sanchez hurts, but realistically, the sox would be ecstatic if he ended up as good as beckett. at first glance, i like this deal for both teams, but ultimately it depends on who the ptbnl is, and how much cash the fish are kicking in for lowell's contract.

Posted by: amos at November 21, 2005 08:49 PM

good trade for the sox, although not without its risk. Beckett is a great pitcher, but he's hurt a lot and he's still due for his tommy john surgery, which all young fireballers seem to need. The Lowell contract is dead weight, although they could move him to 1st and keep Billy Mueller if they wanted. I'm not sold on Hanley, I can't remember a Red Sox position prospect (or any prospect for that matter) to pan out since Nomar and Adam Everett.

Posted by: gator39 at November 21, 2005 08:55 PM

I'm with amos on this one. It would have been nice to see Ramirez play in Boston, but with Renteria, it would have been unlikely anyway. Of all the Sox' prospects, he was the one to trade.

Sanchez was the real prize here, but I'd rather give him up than give up Lester. Also, Beckett is only 25, so the Sox will have him under their control for another couple years.

I also find it hard to imagine that Lowell is washed up at 31, although he might be taking the path of other late bloomers (decent peak, fast tail off), and your point about line drive pct is a good one. Then again, if he bounces back, he might be a decent value. I've also seen speculation that the Sox might spin Lowell to the Twins, who were asking Florida about him before.

Posted by: David Dean at November 21, 2005 08:57 PM

I'm not sure if I'd say that Adam Everett "panned out," unless that just means becoming a regular major leaguer. It's a sad commentary on the Sox farm system during the Duquette years that Everett is the only position prospect other than Nomar to land a starting job. Of course, the arms from the system have done better (though with clubs other than Boston): Pavano, Armas, Duscherer, and Reitsma, to name a few.

I would like to see the Sox pass on Mueller and give the job to Youkilis next year. Lowell would either be expendable, or could become part of a rotating 3B/1B/DH plan.

Posted by: David Dean at November 21, 2005 09:03 PM

I agree with the above about Hanley -- he probably won't develop.

For Lowell, I would love to see the Sox keep Petagine and use a Petagine/Lowell platoon, with Youk crossing the diamond to complement them. Lowell is sttill a useful hitter against LHP, where Petagine struggles. In this model, they can also use Lowell as a late inning defensive replacement, which Francona just loves.

All the same, I expect to see the Sox eat some of Lowell's salary and move him on to someone who is desparate for 3B. Could SD collect all the bad hitting 3B who are good defenders?

Another possibility is using Lowell as insurance for Pedroia. Youk was working on learning 2B this year. If Pedroia struggles, they could play Youk at 2B and Lowell at 3B. If Pedroia and Youk both look good in spring training, they dump Lowell then.

Posted by: Craig A. Damon at November 21, 2005 09:04 PM

I think unless we are talking about a can't miss ARod/Mark Prior type prospect i would always trade young talent for a young pitcher. The odds of sanchez ever becoming even remotely the pitcher beckett already is are slim to none. In a semi related, nostalgia moment, i remember when the sox (circa) 95 wouldnt trade Aron Sele and Frankie Rodriguez for Randy Johnson. Woops.

Posted by: gator3921 at November 21, 2005 09:15 PM

I think the Johnson trade rumors were more like 92-93, when Johnson was still not much better than league average, but had promise. For everyone of those that would have been great trades, you can come up with a Kazmir-Zambrano trade the other way.

Beckett is far better than either Johnson was at that point or Zambrano was (or probably ever will be). Note that Sanchez has much better numbers than any of Rodriguez, Sele or Kazmir had at the time of their (proposed) trades.

Posted by: Craig A. Damon at November 21, 2005 09:29 PM

The way Hanely has been "progressing," he may never make it as a starter in the majors. Anibal, otoh, is the prize prospect in this deal. He's very good. But, Beckett is better. Depending on how much dead weight the Sox are picking up, this may not be a bad deal for Boston.

Posted by: Jason at November 21, 2005 09:38 PM

Info from soxprospects.com: Anibal Sanchez, Hanley Ramirez

Posted by: Jason at November 21, 2005 09:42 PM

As it stands now I believe Mike Lowell would be the Sox' best defensive 1B (expecting Olerud not to return) and think he would fit in great on the team. Mueller isn't expected back as this is probably his last contract and he'd like to get some security (years) and we believe our long term solution at 3B is Youk...so I think Lowell fits in at first and I remember around the All-Star break guys on the Marlins saying Lowell was the heart and soul of the team and an extremely good clubhouse presence. Losing Hanley hurt but with Renteria and Pedroia he was expendable...and we got to hang onto Jonathan Papelbon and J. Lester. I love this trade! Love it! Beckett/Schilling/Wake/Clement - I feel comfortable with that.

Posted by: Steve at November 21, 2005 09:51 PM

I'd rather Youkilis or Mueller over Lowell. He has tailed off, starting in June of 2004.

Beckett has a good deal of potential, but I think he is seriously overvalued. I would rather have Hanley than Renteria, although I feel Hanley is overated in some circles.

Posted by: Marc Normandin at November 21, 2005 10:22 PM

I would disagree with the idea of "dismantling" the farm system. The Sox traded from strength on this one. They have three young pitchers (Sanchez, Papelbon and Lester) and traded the least accomplished of the three and Ramirez is essentially superfluous (an overstatement perhaps) because of Renteria. Beckett isn't a "win now" type in the mold of Johnson or Schilling because he's only 25. The fact is that he will likely be in Boston for the next 8-10 years. As good as Sanchez is, remember what the guys and gals at Baseball Prospectus say "TINSTAAPP"

Posted by: Joe at November 22, 2005 08:42 AM

I agree with Joe - Boston has a number of good pitching in the minors, and while Sanchez was one of the better ones, it's not like they're stripping the system bare. As for Hanley, I would have been interested to see what he could do in a couple years, but I think he was overvalued (and I think the Sox are higher on Pedroia now, anyway). The key, it seems to me, is whether or not the sox will try to lock Beckett up long term right away.

Posted by: David Dean at November 22, 2005 09:59 AM

I also had a horrible dream last night that I woke up this morning to the news that the Red Sox had hired Jim Bowden to be their GM.

I need to get interested in hockey or something.

Posted by: David Dean at November 22, 2005 10:00 AM

Great stat regarding the LD%... but what makes an LD% go down like that?

Posted by: Mike at November 22, 2005 10:14 AM

Mike,

Given his loss of power last year, I'd guess that his bat speed is down. He's just not hitting the ball that hard.

Posted by: David Pinto at November 22, 2005 10:25 AM

Oh, and as for the "dismantling Theo's farm system" sentiment, it's worth noting that both Sanchez and Ramirez were signed during the Duquette regime.

Posted by: David Dean at November 22, 2005 11:17 AM

Given the fact that any trade is a calculated gamble, this is a good one for Boston. I do not see it as a purely short-term deal. Beckett could be a rotation anchor for 10+ years; no guarantees with pitching, but his odds are very good. Lowell is a necessary throw-in; he could bounce back, he could be Kevin Millar with a good glove. But with their revenue streams, the Sox can afford to eat the contract if need be.

As for what the Sox give up, they do have depth in their farm system. Hanley Ramirez had fallen slightly in the team's estimation, plus he's blocked by Renteria. Sanchez was their #3 or #4 best pitching prospect, behind Papelbon, Jon Lester, and perhaps Manny Delcarmen. They still have several young players who are ready to contribute.

Posted by: John Walters at November 22, 2005 12:38 PM

David,
In reference to your comment on Lowell's bat speed, the interesting thing is that whenever I read anything about his struggles at the plate, all of the scouts, coaches, and other players around him would insist that his bat speed had not declined. If his bat speed is fine it could be a flaw in his mechanics or an undisclosed injury.

Posted by: Jack Greene at November 22, 2005 01:43 PM

Miami Herald reporter Kevin Baxter is on XM mlb radio
now saying that the Marlins will leave Miami. He says
Loria is currently holding a press conference saying he'll
seek to move the team.

Posted by: susan mullen at November 22, 2005 02:15 PM

Question: How is landing a 25-year-old number one stud with potential Cy Young stuff a sign that the Sox are soley thinking about the immediate future? He may end up anchoring that rotation for the next 10 years. This trade was a no-brainer. And gives us the best of both worlds: A young pitcher who can transform the team now who is young enough to lead the team for the next decade.

Posted by: Ian at November 22, 2005 02:18 PM

Beckett only put up a 1.83 GB/FB ratio last year, and he is going from a pitcher's haven to a park where routine fly balls to left turn into doubles, not to mention there's the dreaded AL-to-NL transition.

As my roommate put it - look out below!!

Posted by: Mike at November 22, 2005 03:14 PM

What is your data source for Lowell's LD's ? The Hardball Times shows his LD% basically unchanged over the last four years, something like 22%, 22%, 19% and 20% (By the way, intuitively, a 30% LD rate seems way too high for any ballplayer to sustain over time). Based on the Hardball Times, data, Lowell's BABIP and GB/LD/OF numbers are essentially unchanged over the past 4 years. What happened in 2005 is he stopped hitting HR's - going from 27 and 32 in the last 2 years to just 8 in 2005. Hard to believe that's just a fluke or bad luck. So, what caused it -injuries, personal problems, the S word ?

Posted by: BirdWatcher at November 22, 2005 07:38 PM

I used the Baseball Info Solutions data for 2002-2004, and the Hardball Times data for 2005. This makes me think we may be using a different metric for line drive percentage.

Posted by: David Pinto at November 22, 2005 07:46 PM

Rob Neyer thinks that perhaps Lowell was injured in '05, and will rebound in 2006.

Posted by: Yankee Despiser at November 22, 2005 08:00 PM

on paper who is better now the yankees, red soxs, or white soxs

Posted by: colin at November 23, 2005 07:12 PM
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