Baseball Musings
Baseball Musings
July 09, 2008
The Oakland View

Are the Athletics giving up on the season?

Trading a pitcher of that caliber raised immediate questions about where the A's are headed the rest of the season, and whether the front office had concluded that any hope of contending had slipped away.

"It's more an indication that we've got a lot of guys injured and we're selling, not buying," said A's closer Huston Street, whose name also surfaces in trade rumors. "That said, since the beginning of the year, we've exceeded expectations, and for the guys remaining, we're going to work to continue to do that."

One of the first things Beane mentioned when discussing the deal was Oakland's recent spate of injuries (Eric Chavez, Bobby Crosby and Keith Foulke went on the disabled list in the past week). He described the deal as not a step back, "but a step forward for the next four or five years. ... We've always viewed it as where we're headed, not necessarily where we are."

Harden's health is often a concern, and there was speculation in the wake of the trade that his dip in velocity the past two starts, when his fastball was down 4 to 5 mph, might have spurred the trade. If Harden were to blow out his arm in his next start or two, the thinking went, the A's would get nothing for him, and he has been on the DL six times in the past four years. An A's source said that did not factor into Oakland's thinking, but the source did confirm that Gaudin was included to provide insurance for the Cubs in the event that Harden were to land on the DL again.

Harden's trade value was as high, and Beane tends to pull the trigger in those situations. I don't think this trade takes the A's out of the race, but it doesn't make them a better contender, either.


Posted by David Pinto at 10:38 AM | Trades | TrackBack (0)
Comments

Does it surprise the the San Francisco paper still hasn't grasped Beane's evaluation of talent? I read that article and it rambles on about Scouts, and then gives statistics of the players that Beane's not particularly interested in. Where is the OPS of the batters, or the WHIP of the pitchers? Let's see the stats of these players during their days in the minor leagues, instead of seeing the stats from the few games they've played in the big leagues. With such a small sample size, it's hard for some fans to evaluate this trade effectively.

I, personally, like it. And I think the A's will be better because of it.

Posted by: Mark Murphy at July 9, 2008 11:14 AM

The A's have never won a playoff series during the Billy Beane era. This will help that streak continue.

Posted by: Bandit at July 9, 2008 11:50 AM

Oakland still has a legit ace in Duchscherer and competent rotation-fillers in Eveland and Smith. From some of the talk about the trade, you'd think that Oakland has no starting pitchers left.

The A's could use some offense. They're only middle of the pack in runs scored, though some of that is their park. Given Harden's fragile health, it seems smart to deal from your strength (the starting rotation) to shore up your weakness (the offense).

Oakland is 3 1/2 out of the postseason right now. This trade hardly makes it impossible for them to win this year. If Harden hits the DL any time soon, Beane also gets to look like a genius.

Posted by: Casey Abell at July 9, 2008 11:50 AM

Re: Bandit

The steak is already dead. A's swept the twins in 2006.

Posted by: John at July 9, 2008 12:13 PM

Bandit, that's not true. They won a series against Minnesota in 2006.

Posted by: David Pinto at July 9, 2008 12:13 PM

Bandit, you are mistaken. The A's swept the Twins in the 2006 ALDS.

I am not going to defend or dismiss this trade. It certainly will provide an opportunity for the Beane detractors to make some noise. The A's have been one of the most successful franchises in baseball during his tenure, and he has made them successful with very difficult payroll constraints. If your measure of success is playoff wins, fine, but Beane has still done much better than most GMs and with much less money.

You might want to consider that Beane signed Harden to a contract, so it is not as if he is just dumping a player to avoid having to sign him. It is likely that he just decided to cut his losses (Harden is hurt more than he is healthy) and get some value back.

All that said, it is discouraging to watch teams with an abundance of young talent such as the A's, Twins, and Marlins constantly rotating players out for new prospects. At some point, these teams need to keep their prospects! And that blame lies with ownership, not the GM.

Posted by: kddn at July 9, 2008 12:34 PM

I stand corrected and offer my deepest apologies.

Posted by: bandit at July 9, 2008 12:42 PM

Economics might have played a part, though Harden's current $4.75 million salary is hardly outlandish by current standards. But the guy's injury history is foreboding. He's pitched more than 128 innings exactly once, in 2004. In 2006 and 2007 he managed less than ten games and fifty innings each year.

Maybe he'll find medical happiness in Chicago. But he's a major risk, and the A's could use some better position players. Plus, they've still got plenty of starting pitching.

Posted by: Casey Abell at July 9, 2008 12:55 PM

Add in to the concerns about Harden's durability this fact: During the Beane Years, the A's starting pitchers have not held up over the long term. Remember when Hudson, Mulder, and Zito looked like a rotation to rival Smoltz, Glavine, and Maddux? That didn't last long.

I have no idea whether the A's are exploiting their young arms, or if it's purely a matter of luck. But either way, Billy Beane is obviously aware that pitchers don't last forever.

Posted by: jvwalt at July 9, 2008 12:58 PM

I'm leery of betting against Beane in situations like this, and I can see some upside to each of the guys they got, but Beane's been worng before (Hudson, Harang) on occasion.

Posted by: Travis M. Nelson at July 9, 2008 04:35 PM
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