Baseball Musings
Baseball Musings
November 05, 2008
Probabilistic Model of Range, 2008, Shortstops

The first position to examine is the most important of the fielders working behind the pitcher, the shortstop. As a reference, the first table looks at the position on a team-wide basis:

Team Shortstop PMR, 2008, Visit Smooth Distance Model, 2008 data only
Team In Play Actual Outs Predicted Outs DER Predicted DER Ratio
Brewers 4354 551 526.00 0.127 0.121 104.75
Giants 4232 492 469.81 0.116 0.111 104.72
Marlins 4338 517 501.00 0.119 0.115 103.19
Angels 4374 524 510.64 0.120 0.117 102.62
Cardinals 4597 580 566.37 0.126 0.123 102.41
Red Sox 4232 480 472.55 0.113 0.112 101.58
Phillies 4396 557 551.85 0.127 0.126 100.93
Braves 4383 566 561.40 0.129 0.128 100.82
Diamondbacks 4224 469 465.74 0.111 0.110 100.70
Cubs 4156 498 495.33 0.120 0.119 100.54
Astros 4292 500 497.32 0.116 0.116 100.54
Athletics 4285 477 474.54 0.111 0.111 100.52
Rangers 4667 538 536.31 0.115 0.115 100.31
Dodgers 4265 546 544.65 0.128 0.128 100.25
Indians 4513 542 540.73 0.120 0.120 100.23
White Sox 4409 548 546.97 0.124 0.124 100.19
Royals 4413 508 507.30 0.115 0.115 100.14
Rays 4264 490 490.56 0.115 0.115 99.89
Orioles 4540 537 539.06 0.118 0.119 99.62
Rockies 4535 587 589.61 0.129 0.130 99.56
Pirates 4683 577 580.37 0.123 0.124 99.42
Blue Jays 4215 476 479.71 0.113 0.114 99.23
Twins 4607 578 584.70 0.125 0.127 98.85
Yankees 4349 491 499.00 0.113 0.115 98.40
Nationals 4417 526 538.02 0.119 0.122 97.76
Mariners 4512 480 493.64 0.106 0.109 97.24
Padres 4419 520 536.39 0.118 0.121 96.94
Reds 4299 468 485.83 0.109 0.113 96.33
Tigers 4536 519 544.40 0.114 0.120 95.33
Mets 4335 498 524.64 0.115 0.121 94.92

Notice the Mets are last. While recent articles mention Jeter as the worst fielder in the majors, in 2008 he wasn't the worst shortstop in New York:

Individual Shortstop PMR, 2008, Visit Smooth Distance Model, 2008 data only (1000 balls in play)
Player In Play Actual Outs Predicted Outs DER Predicted DER Ratio
Marco Scutaro 1352 173 157.04 0.128 0.116 110.16
Omar Vizquel 1863 210 193.60 0.113 0.104 108.47
Mike Aviles 2277 271 252.42 0.119 0.111 107.36
Maicer Izturis 1307 151 144.80 0.116 0.111 104.28
Jed Lowrie 1142 123 118.01 0.108 0.103 104.23
J.J. Hardy 3804 477 460.72 0.125 0.121 103.53
Erick Aybar 2437 305 295.72 0.125 0.121 103.14
Alex Cora 1137 140 135.75 0.123 0.119 103.13
Cesar Izturis 3136 408 396.19 0.130 0.126 102.98
Jack Wilson 2231 285 276.88 0.128 0.124 102.93
Bobby Crosby 3740 423 411.71 0.113 0.110 102.74
Jason Bartlett 3208 380 372.71 0.118 0.116 101.96
Hanley Ramirez 3986 472 462.98 0.118 0.116 101.95
Juan Castro 1331 153 150.32 0.115 0.113 101.78
Jimmy Rollins 3537 451 443.43 0.128 0.125 101.71
Luis Rodriguez 1191 143 140.93 0.120 0.118 101.47
Yunel Escobar 3344 440 434.04 0.132 0.130 101.37
Nick Punto 1646 227 224.05 0.138 0.136 101.32
Orlando Cabrera 4218 527 521.06 0.125 0.124 101.14
Adam Everett 1183 156 154.33 0.132 0.130 101.08
Miguel Tejada 4062 472 469.63 0.116 0.116 100.50
Jhonny Peralta 3963 469 467.52 0.118 0.118 100.32
Michael Young 4165 489 487.98 0.117 0.117 100.21
Ryan Theriot 3615 425 424.27 0.118 0.117 100.17
Julio Lugo 1947 216 217.95 0.111 0.112 99.11
Angel Berroa 1730 225 227.09 0.130 0.131 99.08
Derek Jeter 3815 429 433.24 0.112 0.114 99.02
Stephen Drew 3820 422 429.34 0.110 0.112 98.29
Cristian Guzman 3640 441 449.15 0.121 0.123 98.19
John McDonald 1387 150 154.82 0.108 0.112 96.89
Yuniesky Betancourt 4173 446 460.45 0.107 0.110 96.86
Troy Tulowitzki 2730 354 365.56 0.130 0.134 96.84
Edgar Renteria 3696 428 449.40 0.116 0.122 95.24
Jose Reyes 4196 480 504.15 0.114 0.120 95.21
Khalil Greene 2841 327 345.54 0.115 0.122 94.64
Tony F Pena 1808 199 211.52 0.110 0.117 94.08
Brendan Harris 1480 159 170.68 0.107 0.115 93.16
Jeff Keppinger 2636 274 296.50 0.104 0.112 92.41
David Eckstein 1445 149 163.53 0.103 0.113 91.11

Jose Reyes converted 24 fewer balls into outs than expected while Jeter was just down four. It was actually one of Derek's better years.

Omar Vizquel remains impressive at an advanced age. He didn't play a whole season, so he didn't get a chance to wear down, but if any team is looking for a great late inning defensive replacement, Omar is it.

Mike Aviles came up as a great find for the Royals in terms of his batting, but he also performed well with the glove.

Troy Tulowitzki went from first to almost worst in 2008. His injuries seemed to limit his range.

Jimmy Rollins won the Gold Glove today, but J.J. Hardy deserved it based on this data.

Feel free to comment and criticize.


Comments

Yet another data point for the Royals being idiotic to move Aviles off shortstop.

Michael Young wasn't his usual self with the bat, but he wasn't bad defensively either.

Tejada was average defensively, which will help him sustain his value as his bat declines.

Posted by: Subrata Sircar at November 5, 2008 09:10 PM

Is there anyone who can point me in the direction of a comprehensive explanation for why this is the best way to rank fielders?

Posted by: Jason at November 5, 2008 09:24 PM

I don't claim it's the best. First, I'm only measuring range. Second, like any small sample size statistic, it's subject to random variation.

What is does try to do is take into account how difficult or easy it is for a ball to be fielded.

Posted by: David Pinto at November 5, 2008 11:06 PM

So, given your last statement, you are stating that this is better data than the fielding bible. Back it up. Convince me that Hardy is better than Rollins. Because according to this data Hanley is better than Rollins?!?!? We all know that isn't true. But give an explanation. I'm open to debate, and I'm not tied to one guy. Just saying: back it up.

Posted by: Mike at November 6, 2008 12:17 AM

Where would Everett have placed?

Posted by: Adam B. at November 6, 2008 01:10 AM

"Notice the Mets are last. While recent articles mention Jeter as the worst fielder in the majors, in 2008 he wasn't the worst shortstop in New York:"

So does that mean the Mets are a minor league team?

(sorry, couldn't resist).

Posted by: rbj at November 6, 2008 08:59 AM

No doubt Marco Scutaro is the best SS in MLB. Reminding me of the year Kevin Millar came in as the best fielding 1B.

Posted by: Bandit at November 6, 2008 09:11 AM

Alex Cora's rank among the top ten is surprising to me. Much of the consensus that I've heard among fans and media is that he's lost a step in the field.

Posted by: Neil S. at November 6, 2008 10:45 AM

I agree with Mike. I'm not doing this to be argumentative, but I am demanding of the information that I use to evaluate players. I would like to see some explanation for how this is any better than anecdotal evidence.

Posted by: Jason at November 6, 2008 02:57 PM

The data is the same data that the fielding Bible uses, the data supplied by Baseball Info Solutions. I build a probability model based on six parameters of a ball in play. The are direction, distance, type (ground, fly, etc) batter hand, pitcher hand, and park. I then ask, for each ball in play, based on those paramenters, what is the probability of that ball being turned into an out. Adding all those up gives me expected outs.

What make my system different:

1) Based on reader suggestions, I eliminate home team fielders, since they can have too much of an impact on the model. (There is a smoothing factor that includes them.)

2) I treat the home field as part of the model, rather than applying park factors to a larger model.

I hope this answers your questions.

Posted by: David Pinto at November 6, 2008 03:09 PM

Jason and Mike are lazy. They don't want to understand what is being measured, they just want someone to tell them "use this one" as if there is an all-encompassing metric that covers all aspects of defense.

Let them do some of their own research.

http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/evaluating-the-evaluators/

http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2006/writers/jon_weisman/02/03/defense.metrics/index.html

Posted by: thumble at November 6, 2008 10:27 PM

I'm not at all lazy, Thumble. You don't have to try to be such a troll about it. That was uncalled for.

I just think that if someone is going to do a systematic breakdown, it would make everything more accessible if they linked to an explanation for the stats. I also want to thank David for the info that he supplied. I am always eager to learn more about the various metrics.

Posted by: Jason at November 6, 2008 11:14 PM

"So, given your last statement, you are stating that this is better data than the fielding bible. Back it up."

David stated no such thing. How in the world do you get that from his statement "I don't claim it's the best."?

For an explanation of the system, click on the PMR link in the navigation box above. David has been doing this for 4? years now.

Posted by: Rally at November 7, 2008 09:59 AM

Question:

When you are calcing the PMR for specific positions, do you use the DER of that position in a given zone or the overall DER for that zone (to determine the expected outs)?

Thanks.

Posted by: birdo at November 7, 2008 03:51 PM

There really isn't a zone in this system. There are slices of the field, and in some cases distances, but it's the DER of the fielder for the six parameters.

Posted by: David Pinto at November 7, 2008 04:25 PM

Right, so an individual shortstop is compared to the probability of all SS making a play in vector 40 (or whatever number)? Not compared to all outs made in vector 40.

Posted by: birdo at November 7, 2008 04:41 PM

Correct.

Posted by: David Pinto at November 7, 2008 08:08 PM

Jason,

The author does link to an explanation via the tag at the end of the article. All the information you needed is readily accessed using the tags or the archives located on the right side of the website.

It probably took you longer to post your comment/request than it would have taken to retrieve the information yourself. If that behavior doesn't fall within the boundary of intellectually lazy then we should remove the word from our lexicon.

Posted by: thumble at November 7, 2008 09:10 PM
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