December 04, 2007
Abraham's Take
Here's the latest on the Yankees and Santana from Peter Abraham:
The Yankees, for all of the deadline talk, remain open to the Twins coming back to them. But the Twins seem to love Jon Lester and aren't crazy about Melky Cabrera.
Yankees fans in general put too much value on Cabrera. He's a nice player but he has a career OPS of .728. Outside of his arm, he's at best an average center fielder. I think he's fine with the Yankees hitting eighth or ninth. But it's not like he's a budding star.
The Twins love of Lester puts the Red Sox in the lead for Santana.
Update: Edes says the fifth player is Ryan Kalish.
Posted by David Pinto at
03:24 PM
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Their supposed love of Lester and Ellsbury is laughable. Phil Hughes is about a billion times better than either of them and the only player mentioned in Santana trades with real star potential. Unless Lester and Ellsbury are included in any trade with the Sox, the Twins have blown this one big time.
How exactly is Hughes 'a billion times' better than either? And can you really compare the upside of a pitcher to that of a position player? I don't think so. As far as Lester and Hughes, Hughes may be better, but not by much. Lester HAS SHOWN he can pitch in big spots (Game 4 of the WS, for example!).
Not sure how you could say Hughes is a billion times better than either of them given that he's all hype and upside at this point. Granted, he could turn out great, but Lester and Ellsbury have been more impressive at the ML level, and as mentioned, melky isn't exactly adding a whole lot to the deal.
Ellsbury's had a cup of coffee in the show, and Lester may have a strong win/loss record, but sheesh, those peripherals.
Just to pick one, Hughes whip in the minors was .86 and even in the majors, factoring in a tough August coming back from injury where his command suffered he was 1.28. Lester? Whip in the minors of 1.31; majors is 1.57.
Yeah, so he throws with his left arm, but really it's a joke to even compare Lester and Hughes.
And oh yeah, this was Hughes' age 21 season. When Lester was 21 he pitched in Portland, really the only impressive season of his career.
Hmm....seem to recall that Lester had an issue with something or other too. Again, Hughes is not much more impressive than Lester has been AT THE MAJOR LEAGUE LEVEL.
Lester for Boston:
9.48 h/9 1.06 hr/9 4.61 bb/9 6.86 k/9 1.57 whip
Hughes for NY:
7.93 h/9 0.99 hr/9 3.59 bb/9 7.18 k/9 1.28 whip
Oh, and keep in mind that Lester is a fly ball pitcher, Hughes throws more grounders.
Yeah, Lester has the equivalent of a full season, and Hughes only a 1/3 of that at 13 starts, but really, even despite a poor August Phil has pitched better than Lester, and the stats are pretty clear. And Lester's cancer has little to do with it as far as I can tell. His minor league numbers weren't great, unless you want to argue that he was dealing with it for since 03/04 or something.
Going forward I'd expect Hughes to walk fewer, strike out more this year.
Lester? Feh, more of the same. Guy doesn't have great command. Never had it in the minors. Tough to see how he learns how to throw strikes in the bigs. A fly ball pitcher who walks 4 per 9 is going to get give up some runs.
Guess what the most important thing here is: It only matters what the Twins think.
FWIW, I'm a Sox fan who really doesn't like Lester. He strikes me as a Daniel Cabrera type: Loads of potential he'll probably never fill because he can't spot his fastball anywhere close to where he wants it. If Boston manages to turn him, Crisp, and two of the Lowrie/Kalish/Masterson/Bowden crowd into Johan Santana, I'll consider that something of a coup. If it's three of that group...well, that makes me a little uncomfortable, that's a ton of prospects.
I like Masterson better then Lester at this point, so I hope it's Bowden who goes and not him. Heavy sinker, tons of grounders, and even though his overall K-rate last season wasn't anything to write home about, he took a major step forward in the second half and did nothing but impress after a promotion to AAA. (At least until a leg injury led to a few god-awful starts near the end of the season and effectively cut his year short) Even if he doesn't make it as a starter, he still looks like a very good reliever.