Baseball Musings
Baseball Musings
January 30, 2008
Breaking Down the Santana Trade

Aaron Gleeman looks at the details of the Santana trade.

In a perfect world Santana would christen the new ballpark with an Opening Day start in 2010 and wear a Twins cap on his Hall of Fame plaque, but for whatever reason his remaining in Minnesota never seemed to be a legitimate option once the trade rumors began swirling. Swapping him for packages led by Hughes or Ellsbury would have put the Twins in a better position for both short- and long-term success, so if either of those deals were passed on then Smith made a major mistake.

With that said, getting Gomez, Guerra, Mulvey, and Humber from the Mets likely beats keeping Santana for one more season and taking a pair of draft picks when he departs as a free agent. A toolsy center fielder who hasn't shown much offensively, a very raw 18-year-old pitcher, and a pair of MLB-ready middle-of-the-rotation starters is no one's idea of a great haul for Santana, but it's not a horrible one and Smith may have backed himself into a corner by not jumping on better offers immediately.

The end result of a bad situation handled poorly is a mediocre package of players that has no one excited, but even acquiring Hughes or Ellsbury wouldn't have made losing Santana easy to live with. Trading away one of the best players in franchise history while he's still at the top of his game is a horrible thing and doing so without getting the best possible return for him is extremely disappointing, but the Santana trade still has a chance to work out in the Twins' favor. It just could have been better.

I still don't see why the Twins didn't offer Santana $140 million for seven years. Baseball revenues are growing. The Twins are moving into a new stadium, and that's likely to increase revenue as well (especially if both Santana and Liriano are at the top of the rotation). An argument could be made that Santana is worth $140 million over five years, so the Twins could look at the seven year deal as one in which money is deferred. The team did nothing to endear themselves to the Minnesota fans with this deal.


Posted by David Pinto at 07:38 AM | Trades | TrackBack (0)
Comments

Guessing that Gomez comes rignt in and plays and that Humber is in the rotation the Twinks get some opportunity for return. Gomez has to be able to get on base and Humber has to pitch a heck of a lot better than he did with NYM. If the Twinks actually had a package with either Hughes or Ellsbury involved those would seem preferable except at least they get JS out of the league. The reason they didn't offer $20m/yr is that JS wasn't going to accept it.

Posted by: Bandit at January 30, 2008 11:37 AM

I think the Twins did well to sign Morneau and Cuddyer before making this trade. I think it is simply bad business to give any P anything more than a 3-4 year contract, even if his name is Santana.

Sadly, only teams like the Yankees, Mets, Red Sox, and the LA and Chicago clubs can afford to make those mistakes and occasionally get lucky. What have the Yanks gotten from Pavano? Have the Mets gotten full value for Pedro? How many Ps not named Maddux or Glavine (or perhaps Clemens) have enjoyed a healthy seven year run?

I think the Twins pinch pennies way too often but I can't quarrel with this decision.
bill

Posted by: Bill McKinley at January 30, 2008 11:45 AM
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