Baseball Musings
Baseball Musings
November 07, 2007
Probabilistic Model of Range, Shortstops

A number of people are suggesting new ways to construct the models, but before I try those methods I'd like to present the model used last year for the nine fielding positions, starting with shortstops. I am including something new, however, the full team at the position.

Team Shortstop PMR, 2007, Visit Smooth Distance Model, 2007 data only
Team In Play Actual Outs Predicted Outs DER Predicted DER Ratio
Rockies 4599 657 602.67 0.143 0.131 109.01
Twins 4384 556 523.57 0.127 0.119 106.19
Dodgers 4310 556 526.50 0.129 0.122 105.60
Royals 4528 543 514.33 0.120 0.114 105.57
Blue Jays 4349 567 544.69 0.130 0.125 104.09
Phillies 4505 531 516.45 0.118 0.115 102.82
Indians 4548 571 558.76 0.126 0.123 102.19
Pirates 4608 588 575.51 0.128 0.125 102.17
Red Sox 4226 500 492.12 0.118 0.116 101.60
Giants 4467 592 584.51 0.133 0.131 101.28
Diamondbacks 4351 493 488.99 0.113 0.112 100.82
Brewers 4392 501 497.76 0.114 0.113 100.65
Angels 4325 502 498.77 0.116 0.115 100.65
Marlins 4491 508 506.53 0.113 0.113 100.29
Mariners 4535 515 514.50 0.114 0.113 100.10
Orioles 4403 505 506.89 0.115 0.115 99.63
Astros 4530 561 563.85 0.124 0.124 99.49
Braves 4404 516 520.04 0.117 0.118 99.22
Cardinals 4587 539 544.84 0.118 0.119 98.93
Reds 4533 496 502.70 0.109 0.111 98.67
Athletics 4499 531 538.40 0.118 0.120 98.62
Padres 4476 536 544.49 0.120 0.122 98.44
Mets 4362 506 518.72 0.116 0.119 97.55
Cubs 4177 481 495.42 0.115 0.119 97.09
White Sox 4545 563 580.23 0.124 0.128 97.03
Tigers 4486 517 536.95 0.115 0.120 96.28
Rangers 4518 531 556.38 0.118 0.123 95.44
Devil Rays 4378 441 466.20 0.101 0.106 94.59
Nationals 4591 532 566.26 0.116 0.123 93.95
Yankees 4511 478 516.85 0.106 0.115 92.48

The above table will give you an idea of how the regular shortstop fit in the team context. You might imagine that Troy Tulowitzki was very good and Derek Jeter very bad:

Individual Shortstop PMR, 2007, Visit Smooth Distance Model, 2007 data only (1000 balls in play)
Player In Play Actual Outs Predicted Outs DER Predicted DER Ratio
Troy Tulowitzki 4294 615 564.54 0.143 0.131 108.94
Tony F Pena 4010 480 449.44 0.120 0.112 106.80
Rafael Furcal 3574 473 445.28 0.132 0.125 106.23
John McDonald 2389 311 294.27 0.130 0.123 105.69
Jason Bartlett 3631 466 443.58 0.128 0.122 105.05
Jimmy Rollins 4447 528 511.62 0.119 0.115 103.20
Jack Wilson 3657 470 457.15 0.129 0.125 102.81
Yunel Escobar 1116 135 131.47 0.121 0.118 102.69
Jhonny Peralta 4206 512 502.37 0.122 0.119 101.92
Omar Vizquel 3739 504 497.76 0.135 0.133 101.25
Julio Lugo 3592 431 426.14 0.120 0.119 101.14
Adam Everett 1631 217 214.61 0.133 0.132 101.12
Orlando Cabrera 3997 462 456.91 0.116 0.114 101.11
Alex Gonzalez 2728 306 306.06 0.112 0.112 99.98
J.J. Hardy 3873 442 442.35 0.114 0.114 99.92
Cesar Izturis 1904 216 216.36 0.113 0.114 99.83
Bobby Crosby 2524 313 313.77 0.124 0.124 99.75
Stephen Drew 3877 434 435.25 0.112 0.112 99.71
Hanley Ramirez 4054 460 462.96 0.113 0.114 99.36
Ryan Theriot 2494 301 303.06 0.121 0.122 99.32
Khalil Greene 4206 504 507.64 0.120 0.121 99.28
Mark Loretta 1537 177 178.28 0.115 0.116 99.28
Yuniesky Betancourt 4103 464 467.60 0.113 0.114 99.23
Edgar Renteria 3067 361 365.13 0.118 0.119 98.87
Eric Bruntlett 1075 131 132.81 0.122 0.124 98.63
Royce Clayton 1538 200 202.77 0.130 0.132 98.63
Marco Scutaro 1064 122 124.14 0.115 0.117 98.28
Juan Uribe 4113 513 524.43 0.125 0.128 97.82
Jose Reyes 4295 500 511.97 0.116 0.119 97.66
David Eckstein 3002 349 357.57 0.116 0.119 97.60
Miguel Tejada 3317 363 373.46 0.109 0.113 97.20
Jeff Keppinger 1209 130 135.67 0.108 0.112 95.82
Carlos Guillen 3361 389 408.05 0.116 0.121 95.33
Felipe Lopez 2949 359 377.76 0.122 0.128 95.03
Michael Young 4083 476 504.85 0.117 0.124 94.29
Josh Wilson 1340 141 151.37 0.105 0.113 93.15
Brendan Harris 2336 234 253.12 0.100 0.108 92.45
Derek Jeter 4117 421 461.63 0.102 0.112 91.20
Cristian Guzman 1189 117 130.96 0.098 0.110 89.34

Troy really blew the competition away in terms of PMR, and Tony Pena did his best to make up for his poor hitting. And while New York enjoys two fine offensive shortstops, neither exactly sparkles with the glove. You can also see why the Tigers are moving Carlos Guillen to first. Michael Young may not be far behind him.


Posted by David Pinto at 10:59 PM | Defense • | Probabilistic Model of Range | TrackBack (0)
Comments

The Reyes/Hanley Ramirez comparison is very interesting. Conventional wisdom on the web is that HanRam is a butcher with the glove and Reyes is pretty good; you find that HanRam is ok and Reyes is the butcher. It will be interesting to see what other systems (e.g. UZR) say about that.

Posted by: DAW at November 8, 2007 06:19 AM

Two other guys ranked surprisingly high: Jimmy Rollins and Jhonny Peralta. Interesting.

Posted by: Sky at November 8, 2007 07:36 AM

Rollins was highly regarded by The Fans (as was Tulo and MacDonald). No surprise on that front for me.

Posted by: tangotiger at November 8, 2007 10:06 AM

Is it entirely coincidental that only three SS had it easier than Tulowitzki, and only one had it harder than Guzman (and only three had it harder than Jeter)? I have some trouble believing that there isn't still a not-insignificant dependency between the degree of difficulty in BIP and these rankings - e.g. the harder it is to play the position, the less likely it is that a SS will do well.

Posted by: Mike Emeigh at November 8, 2007 10:08 AM

Oh, and I very much like the "actual/expected" column at the end. Now we can say that a player will get 10% more outs than average, etc.

And since David shows both columns, one can easily do in his head actual minus expected.

Given the choice, this is the best one. Dividing in one's head is a bit harder.

Posted by: tangotiger at November 8, 2007 10:08 AM

David, do these ratings include flyouts caught by shortstops?

Posted by: Mike Humphreys at November 8, 2007 10:19 AM

Mike, yes, they do include flyouts caught by shortstops.

Posted by: David Pinto at November 8, 2007 10:45 AM

There is a wide disparity between PMR's evaluation of Hanley Ramirez and Jose Reyes and the evaluations of the various zone rating methods. Rally's combined zone rating using both BIS and Stats data (http://home.comcast.net/~briankaat/statsite.html) has Ramirez at -15 and Reyes at +13. Fielding Bible (http://www.billjamesonline.net/fieldingbible/2007-plus-minus-leaders.asp) has Ramirez at -37 and Reyes at +13.

Part of the difference in the systems probably results from the inferior performance of opposing shortstops in Marlins' games compared with in Mets' games. Whether this was due to luck, park differences, offence differences or what, I do not know. If I were to guess, I would say that the Fielding Bible's rating of Ramirez is probably too harsh (Ramirez was -6 in 2006 according to the Fielding Bible, and I really doubt that he fell off the table in 2007).

I'd like to see the results in the other model (not using visiting players). I am guessing that they will be fairly close to Rally's.

Posted by: Mike Green at November 8, 2007 10:52 AM

So according to my calculations, Tulo was a +42.5 runs, if I use a .85 run value on the outs over expected. Am I doing this right?

Posted by: Darren at November 8, 2007 11:05 AM

"Part of the difference in the systems probably results from the inferior performance of opposing shortstops in Marlins' games compared with in Mets' games. Whether this was due to luck, park differences, offence differences or what, I do not know."

Mike: I can't find team BABIP for different ball types (anyone know where that's available?), but accourding to B-Ref FL hitters were .325 BABIP against GB pitchers, compared to .301 for NYM hitters. FL hitters were also 4 years younger than the Mets' on average (27 vs. 31), so likely they were faster running to first. So offense differences could be part of the answer.

Posted by: Guy at November 8, 2007 11:10 AM

I'm pretty surprised by Yuniesky Betancourt's rating. From watching him play I would have guessed he would rate much higher. Anything weird going on with his numbers?

Posted by: Tommy at November 8, 2007 11:20 AM

David, thanks for the clarification. I believe Plus/Minus includes flyouts as well, but they use a ball-hogging adjustment (described below) that results in virtually zero _net_ flyout plays per infielder. (The highest persistent score in the 2003-05 Fielding Bible numbers was about +5 flyouts per season by Orlando Hudson at second.)

The ball hogging adjustment works as follows. If the infield/short outfield fly ball has a .95 probability of being caught by _somebody_, then the guy who catches it gets only +.05 credit. If the league average probabilities are .45 that the SS catches it, .30 that the second baseman catches it, and .20 that the CF catches it, and _nobody_ catches it, then each guy gets docked by the probability that his position would catch it. So everybody let the fly ball drop, then the SS gets docked -.45.

Posted by: Mike Humphreys at November 8, 2007 11:23 AM

Guy,

That makes a lot of sense. I don't think of the Mets as a slow team (they did lead the league in stolen bases), but they probably are overall...BABIP home/road splits by batted ball type would definitely clarify the issue.

Posted by: Mike Green at November 8, 2007 11:31 AM

"So according to my calculations, Tulo was a +42.5 runs, if I use a .85 run value on the outs over expected. Am I doing this right?"

For shortstops, a .75 run value works better, as pretty much every play they make or save is a single.

Look for Chris Dial's work in the Dialed in blog on BTF for exact run values by position, or just remember these rules as they are close enough:

.75 for middle infield
.80 for corners
.85 for outfielders

Posted by: Rally at November 8, 2007 11:56 AM

I've done full run conversions here: http://anaheimangelsblog.blogspot.com/2007/11/pmr-run-conversions-shortstops.html

Posted by: Los Angeles Waterloo of Black Hawk at November 8, 2007 02:29 PM
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