Baseball Musings
Baseball Musings
July 31, 2008
Run Difference

I was just looking at the VORP difference between Manny Ramirez and Jason Bay. Manny's VORPr (runs per game) is .378, Bay is .309. Over 54 games that mean Manny would generate 20.4 runs over replacement, Bay 16.7. Four runs isn't much over 1/3 of a season.

Juan Pierre is the highest ranked Dodgers leftfielder at 0.029. Over 55 games, that's 1.6 runs over replacement. Manny would be at 20.8. That's two wins, and can easily make the difference in the pennant race in the NL West.


Posted by David Pinto at 08:32 PM | Trades | TrackBack (0)
Comments

The key for the Dodgers, as always (actually, as it always is for every team), is to get the right guys on the field.

If this means starting Ethier in right, Kemp in center, and Manny in left, with Andruw Jones and Juan Pierre coming in as defensive replacements/platoon players, this is a fine deal. LaRoche for 1-2 wins in a pennant race and two draft picks? That's a fine deal, especially with Logan White guiding the picks.

If, on the other hand, Manny effectively replaces Kemp or Ethier in the lineup, the Dodgers don't gain nearly as much.

Posted by: Subrata Sircar at July 31, 2008 08:54 PM

I think and have read between the lines on this deal. I think guys like Mike Lowell and others said to the F.O. that he's gotta go. He was well past being called on the carpet for smacking around the Travel Sec. in Houston. Good for Sox clubhouse.

Doubt they'll miss him. Let the real 9 play. Not some joker.

Posted by: ryan at July 31, 2008 09:41 PM

You only wonder whether the Dodgers would have been forced to make this trade if they had played the best lineup out there every night.

After watching Torre manage the Yankees from 1996 to 2007, the only thing I can say is that the Dodgers better put a plan in place to ensure that Kemp, Ethier, and Manny are getting most of the outfield at-bats. They just traded LaRoche because Torre (and the organization?) prematurely lost faith in him - now it's time to make sure the same thing doesn't happen with the young guns patrolling the outfield.

Posted by: Alex Schwartz at July 31, 2008 09:44 PM

But shouldn't we expect Manny's stats to be vastly lower in Chavez Ravine? Especially since he's in the down part of his career. I suspect this was a baaaad deal for those who bleed Dodger blue.

Posted by: Devon Young at July 31, 2008 10:15 PM

Is Manny going to play 60ft behind the SS in LA too?

Posted by: Bandit at July 31, 2008 10:26 PM

VORP also doesn't calculate defense. And while Bay is a slightly below-average defender, he's way better than Manny. That makes him at least Manny's equal and probably better.

Posted by: Tyler at July 31, 2008 10:46 PM

Manny Ramirez has been one of the best, most feared hitters for the past decade. I am a stat guy and like the VORP and OPS+ etc. when comparing pitchers, but the fact of the matter is, in October, would the Angels or White Sox or Rays rather see Manny Ramirez coming up to the plate late in a close with runners on base or Jason Bay?

Posted by: Evan at August 1, 2008 12:02 AM

that's comparing "players" not "pitchers"

Posted by: Evan at August 1, 2008 12:03 AM

I'm not saying Boston is throwing it in but I think they figured Manny had quit on them and now they don't have to make an end of the year decision on him. I think they figure if they're fortunate enough to make the post season then they'll go with who brung em and they're going to need a lot more than Manny to win. Maybe LAD will sneak in and Manny will have a big postseason but I doubt it.

Posted by: Bandit at August 1, 2008 07:18 AM

Evan, if you're a stats guy, you'll notice that Bay and Manny have virtually identical stat lines. And since the new rule that the team with the scariest hitters automatically wins the world series doesn't come into effect until 2010, I think the Red Sox were wise to trade for Bay.

Posted by: Mike at August 1, 2008 07:33 AM

Mike, I will grant you during a sample size of 4 months they have similar numbers (Just don't peak at Bay's second half numbers last year) But I thought the problem was that Manny is dogging it? If Manny dogging it has the same numbers as Bay, I'm taking Manny.
I am not saying Bay won't perform, I am just amazed at the certainty of people who believe Bay is an absolute upgrade over Manny.

Posted by: Evan at August 1, 2008 09:34 AM
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