Baseball Musings
Baseball Musings
November 25, 2006
Trading for the Future

The Diamondbacks and Brewers completed a six player deal today. And while the deal is billed as Estra for Doug Davis, the pitcher I bet Arizona is most interested in is Dana Eveland. His minor league numbers are terrific, and he'll be just 23 in 2007. The Brewers get three veterans in the deal, but I'm not sure how much they really help the club.

Update: Brew Crew Ball likes the deal.


Posted by David Pinto at 05:10 PM | Trades | TrackBack (0)
Comments

Estrada might be the poster boy for Bill James' famous batting average illusion. His career BA looks good at .280, but he hits for little power and walks once a month. His career OPS is a piddly .733, actually worse than Damian Miller's .746. And he's supposed to be a big upgrade on Miller?

Well, he is younger than Damian, and he had a decent year in 2006 by his personal standards at .772. But he's not going to make much difference. And he probably isn't worth the prospects.

Posted by: Casey Abell at November 25, 2006 05:25 PM

Continuing the great tradition of lopsided trades in favor of the Brewers, the Diamondbacks send Estrada and two serviceable pitchers to Milwaukee for one Russ Ortiz lookalike and two middling prospects. I don't see how the Diamondbacks can pick up another pitcher with the same scary walk total after eating Ortiz's contract. Davis' last three years have shown steady decline, but it appears he's gotten enough starts because the Brewers just had nobody else to throw out there. As in Ortiz's case, any time the Diamondbacks' front office refers favorably to a guy as an "innings eater", fans should be scurrying for the hills. It should be a rule that if that's the best you can say about a pitcher, don't say anything at all.

This trade isn't as depressing as the previous Diamondback-Brewer exchange. I wouldn't expect the same numbers from Estrada in 2007, but given the initial level of interest from other teams, I find it hard to believe a better offer couldn't be found. Just clearing space on the 25 man roster can't be enough.

Posted by: BFox at November 25, 2006 11:06 PM

It's hard to see how a trade can be lopsided in favor of Milwaukee when they didn't get anybody who's any good. Estrada is a bad hitter and so-so glove. Aquino and Vargas have career ERA's around five. These three barely replacement-level guys won't help Milwaukee at all.

And the Brewers need a lot of help. Their -103 run diff was ugly. Only the Nats, Pirates and Cubs did worse in the NL. Don't look for these three stiffs to turn that run diff around.

Posted by: Casey Abell at November 26, 2006 12:39 PM

Casey, what other everyday catcher was available, either as a free agent or trade? Estrada is not turning the Brewers around and he's not going to repeat 2006. But given the market and the initial interest in Estrada, a sucker should have been found somewhere. And since the ballpark in Arizona is the new Coors Field, I think the Brewers look at Aquino's and Vargas's ERAs a little more favorably. Brewers get three players who will make the 25 man roster easily and they're probably not making any more moves. The Diamondbacks get the second coming of Russ Ortiz. The best result here is if the Diamondbacks don't sign that guy long term. This is lopsided in terms of how cheaply Arizona let these guys go.

Posted by: BFox at November 26, 2006 01:20 PM

i'd sign greg zaun

estrada had a very bad rep in phoenix personally

what's so great about a singles hitter who refuses to walk and GIDP a lot?

i was VERY surprised the brewers gave up on eveland so fast. doug davis has been heading downhill for 2 years. vargas flat out is lousy. i don't get this

Posted by: lisa gray at November 26, 2006 11:36 PM

THE BREWERS GOT RIPPED OFF!!!!

Posted by: Bob at November 27, 2006 08:16 AM

Really, the Brewers might as well go with Miller. He ain't great, but he's about as good as Estrada. There are other replacement-level catchers available without giving up a good pitching prospect.

By the way, Arizona's park is decent for hitters but hardly spectacular. Baseballreference.com gives it 103, 104 and 107 ratings for hitters over the past three seasons (100 is neutral). Aquino and Vargas are just run-of-the-mill pitchers.

Posted by: Casey Abell at November 27, 2006 10:09 AM
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