December 04, 2007
Santana Stall
Neither the Yankees nor the Twins are budging in their talks about Johan Santana:
According to baseball officials who were aware of the talks, the Twins again asked the Yankees on Monday night for pitcher Ian Kennedy -- a pitcher the Yankees have insisted for several days that they wouldn't trade -- as the third player in their proposed deal. The Yankees apparently turned down that proposal immediately.
The Yankees have held firm since Friday that if pitcher Phil Hughes and outfielder Melky Cabrera were part of their offer, the third player heading for Minnesota would have to be a second-tier prospect. So the highly regarded Kennedy headed a list of "untouchables" that included Joba Chamberlain, pitcher Alan Horne and outfielders Austin Jackson and Jose Tabata.
But the Twins also haven't budged since Friday. They wanted Kennedy then, and they still do. So unless one side or the other gives, it now appears a trade that once appeared inevitable could blow up for good.
I have no idea where this is headed, but I would not be surprised to see Santana pitching for the Twins in 2008.
Posted by David Pinto at
12:03 AM
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Well, then he'll just be wearing pinstripes in 09, and the Twins will have a draft pick, rather than Hughes.
Actually, they'll likely have two draft picks, as Santana should be a top-rated pitcher.
The Twins are trading three "things":
a. 1 year of Johan Santana
b. two draft picks
c. The right to exclusively negotiate with Santana i.e. sign him to an extension
Assuming that the two draft picks are used reasonably, they're very likely to become Ellsbury and Cabrera (both of those guys were sandwich picks in the first place, I think).
Hence, from the Twins perspective, the Yankees are offering Phillip Hughes for one year of Santana plus negotiating rights.
I tend to think that everyone is playing this pretty well:
1. Santana's worst case scenario is that he gets hurt and doesn't get his big payday. If he's willing to give up a true auction process in a year for 95% of what he thinks he'd get now, he should want to be traded (and hence his announcement that he won't waive his no-trade during the year) since he'll veto the trade unless he gets his payday.
2. The buyers are hoping to force a lowball auction onto the sellers since they assess the value of their deals as better than the seller's fallback position, which is ...
3. The Twins seem to have decided on the premium they will require to deal Santana over and above trying to win in 2008 and taking the draft picks (or hoping Santana changes his mind mid-season), and are holding out for it.
Hughes is a top pitching prospect, but he is far more likely to blow out his arm than to win 100 major league games in his career - that's just the way it is for pitching prospects; even the can't-miss prospects crater with astonishing regularity.
I think the Twins can do better than Hughes/Cabrera/B-level-prospect, and should wait and see if they can.
Subrata, have a few bones to pick.
the Twins could get either a 1st round + a sandwitch or just a sandwitch, it depends more on the team signing, if say... a big market team bombs next year and then signs Johan, then they won't get the first round.
Also, not many picks actually turn out to be Ellsbury, and Cabrera (not sure if you mean Miguel or Melky, but both holds true) signed internationally, they have abosalutely nothing to do with the draft.
I'm not sure how this will turn out, but i have a feeling you'll be disappointed in whatever bounty Santana brings if you think Hughes / Cabrera / second level prospect isn't nearly enough. check back to the trades of previous years involving a great pitcher nearing his FA. while some ended up being big wins for the seller. AT THE TIME OF THE TRADE, the guys that ended up being the big hit were rarely doing all that well in the minors or majors