January 28, 2007
The Todd Will Deal
Todd Helton confirms to the Denver post that he will waive his no trade clause to go to the Red Sox. However, he appears to want this resolved quickly:
Helton was asked Saturday night whether he has provided the Rockies a deadline or - as major-league sources indicated - was prepared to veto any deal in the future if this trade was not consummated soon.
"That's between me and the Rockies," Helton said. "But they know how I feel."
To the question of whether he would have interest in going to Boston, Helton answered: "Yes."
This is a difficult trade to analyse since the players involved are so fluid. It could turn out to be a good deal for Boston. However, trading for a highly paid, declining first baseman doesn't sound like the best way to spend your money, even if the Rockies are picking up half the tab. I'm tending to the negative on this deal based on that point.
Posted by David Pinto at
12:55 PM
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That's the idea...supposedly they'd be paying $45-50MM, making Boston's AAV a (more) reasonable $9-10MM. I still don't want this to happen if any of Boston's top kids are involved, but I could probably stomach a deal involving only 1 prospect.
Terrible deal for the Sox, unless the Rockies are picking up at least half the contract. Helton's on the wrong side of 30, faded substantially, and has the physical problem (back) you want to avoid in a player of his age. Plus, Youkilis is a fine 1st baseman, not so much at third, and I bet Helton's defense degenerates rapidly. Helton only has slight advantage at this point against Lowell, and it's not enough to make up for his roster-killing contract.
David, don't even compare Helton with Lowell.While it's true that Helton's numbers have been substantially helped by Coors Field, you don't win a batting title just by hitting well 'at home', and his home/away splits aren't as bad as you might think. If the Helton deal can be done without giving up any prized prospects (like Ellsbury, I wouldn't mind dealing Delcarmen for him) then I'm all for it. If the Rox pick up half of his salary, as reports indiciate they'll be willing to do, he could be a very good compliment to Papi/Manny. He provides gold glove defense, plus, all he really has to do in Fenway is stay healthy, hit around .300 and slug 20 or so HRs. The thing the Sox have missed over the last three years has been no damn production behind the big two. It doesn't help if Papi/Manny hits around 45 HRs each but the rest of the time combine to hit like only 30. With a (knock on wood) healthy Drew and possibly Helton, that's like another hopefully 20-25 HRs a pop from two other people in you lineup. That's the kind of production the Red Sox needs. If Tek can get back to his pre 2006 form, all the better. This lineup could potentially be as devastating as the Yankees.
Agreed on all points. I like Delcarmen, as a player and a person...but if he's needed to get the deal done I suppose it'd be worth it. A Lowell/Tavarez/Delcarmen trade, where the Rockies pick up %45-50 of the remaining $90MM and Lowell/Tavarez's full salaries, would have virtually no effect on either team's 2007 payroll. In the long term, however, the Rox would be unloading around $9-10MM a year, and Boston would address their need for a corner IF at a fairly reasonable rate.
Unless you think Helton's really got one foot in the retirement home. And I don't...I think he's got at least 2 more good seasons left, probably 3.
What are you, British... Spell analyze with a Z!!
He is probably good for AT LEAST 2 more seasons, maybe more. However, his contract is through 2011, all at big money, even if Boston only has to pay for half.
My problem is that he's overrated on defense, even jeter has won plenty of gold gloves. The last first baseman we had with a bad back cost boston a world series in '86.
Didn't Boston get burned enough by the prospects that got sent away last year, not that I completely regret those trades, I probably would've made them myself.
What a random rumor this whole thing is. From Boston's perspective, I don't quite understand the logic. Helton is definitely losing some power - both due to the lack of the Coors effect these days, and his aging. If he was a righty, I could see how he could be valuable to the Sox. His doubles power would be tremendous at Fenway, and depending on what kind of a hitter he is, he might be able to bloop them over the monster. But as a big time pull hitter (see www.hittrackeronline.com), I don't see him fitting well with Fenway. In addition, his walk rate was down last year.
On the other hand, the JD Drew signing has made it clear that the Sox are willing to spend heavily for a .400 OBP guy with OK power and unimpressive (but not awful) fielding. Swapping Helton for Lowell in the lineup would give the Sox the potential to have a 1-2-3-4-5 lineup of guys with around a .400 OBP. Youkilis-Helton-Ortiz-Manny-Drew would be absurd, and something I don't even think the Yankees have accomplished.
My other curiosity regarding this potential deal is the extent to which the philosophy of the Sox management/ownership has changed. It always seemed like they wanted to stick around the luxury tax cap ($140 million or so) with their payroll, but they're showing no signs of slowing down at $160+ these days. Did they underestimate NESN revenue? Did they get spooked by the 3rd place finish last year? Are they sick of not winning AL East titles, and they want to level the playing field? I'd love to hear Theo's "game plan" right now.
One would think the Yankees would make an offer for Helton, if only to drive up the price for the Bosox.