September 07, 2006
Trade Analysis
Red Sox fan Zach Hayes rehashes the Josh Beckett trade. On Sanchez:
Former a member of the Portland Sea Dogs, Anibal Sanchez is having a year beyond anyone's expectations at just 22 years old. His 7-2 record, along with a 2.89 ERA and 1.19 WHIP, are hugely impressive, along with the .208 BAA. Surely these numbers won't continue throughout Sanchez's career, but there's reason to believe we not only traded a future All-Star and potential .300 career hitter in Hanley, but also a 18-game winner in Sanchez. Oh yeah, HE THREW A NO-HITTER LAST NIGHT!!!!! It's like dumping 10,000 pounds of salt on the wound (seriously, I almost went on a neighborhood killing spree last night when I found out the news).
He leaves Mike Lowell out of the mix, forgetting that the Red Sox received two good months from him as well!
Posted by David Pinto at
08:11 AM
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The Red Sox were trading future prospects for a winner now. It was a rational trade.
BTW, one no hitter does not make a pitcher great. Just ask Len Barker.
No, but a 7-2 record and a sub-3.00 ERA shows he's got some good stuff. But you're right, the trade made sense from a win now perspective. But when you don't win now, and the prospects you trade play this well, it does look pretty bad.
Who's to say whether or not in the long term Sanchez would have been able to handle the pressure of pitching in Boston. I guarantee if he was pitching in the AL East his ERA would'nt be so sub-par 3.00. The bigger story which no one seems to be talking about is that he pitched in front of an estimated crowd of 12,000 people. Reports have the actual attendance at around 6,000 which would'nt surprise me at all. The lack of attendance reminds me of when the Expos still played their games in Montreal at Olympic stadium. The problem is, the marlins ARE IN THE WILD CARD RACE. Pathetic in South Florida!
Sanchez was a AA pitcher who, from everything I read, was supposed to be two years away from the bigs. He posted a combined ERA of 2.85 in 78.2 innings in A, and 57.1 in AA in 2005.
Beckett is only 4 years older and entering his prime.
And Ramirez had a .279 avg in about 600 ab's in AA. Good tools, hadn't come close to putting it all together yet.
Sanchez was OK in limited minor league innings...and had a high ceiling, but not so dominant that his success in the majors this year could have been predicted. So here's what this means: Either Florida has the best scouting in the major leagues, and knew before the rest of the world that both players were ready to perform now, or they were rebuilding for the future by stockpiling top prospects and, well, got a little lucky.
It's way too early to declare Ramirez and Sanchez studs, and the Sox retarded for trading them. I'm also very curious to see how Ramirez and especially Sanchez do next season. Remember, the last rookie to throw a no-no was Bud Smith, who also posted a decent 3.86 ERA. That happened in 2001...and he's been scuffling in the minors since 2002.
Hey, lay off Len Barker! His was a perfect game, not just a no hitter. He was an effective starter for several years, and if he was around in this medical era his career probably would have been longer. If Sanchez turns into a Len Barker, the Marlins are doing well.
A better - and more ominous - comparison might be Bud Smith.
When the trade was made, the Red Sox were clearly trading future promise for value-in-2006. How's that worked out for them so far?
BA/OBP/SLG, WinsAboveReplacementV1.0 (courtesy of BP, includes defense, adjusted for league/season)
Mike Lowell: .286/.340/.474, 5.0 WARP1
Hanley Ramirez: .285/.349/.461, 5.3 WARP1
Josh Beckett: 186.2IP, 4.86 ERA (adjusted for league/season)
Anibal Sanchez: 88 IP, 3.06 ERA (adjusted for league/season)
The Red Sox have gotten more value in 2006 out of the guys they traded than the guys they let go, but not by a lot - Ramirez has outhit Lowell while playing a more difficult defensive spot just as well, while Sanchez has pitched better than Beckett in half as many innings.
I also mentioned the trade in my review of all the Marlins' deals today. I was surprised that WARP gives so little credit to Ramirez and so much to Lowell -- the difference appears to be in WARP's fielding calculations. But according to Chris Dial's data, WARP has this one right.
Yep, you can blame it all on Theo. But why? Seems that even though he came back, and is supposed to have total control. He sure isn't acting like it. He's quite aware that the Red Sox either need to win now, or rebuild for the future. Problem is, it doesn't look he's committing 100% to either direction. And believe me, if he picked the rebuilding path, RSN would crucify him for it. Hypocrites. It's damned if you, damned if you don't.
Unfortunately, toeing the line won't work for Theo...
"When the trade was made, the Red Sox were clearly trading future promise for value-in-2006."
What? They traded for 26-year-old Josh Beckett only for 2006? Try again.