Baseball Musings: Third Base!

December 17, 2004

Third Base!

I'd like to expand on a couple of ideas that are floating through the comments on the Beltre signing and the Randy Johnson trade. The first is that the Beltre's career is inconsistent with his 2004 season. While that's true, as I said in this post,

His jump in statistics at age 25 is more likely to be real than someone who puts their first great year at 29 or 30.

But more telling, I believe, is that DePodesta offered six years guaranteed, although at a lower yearly rate (how much lower isn't clear). That DePodesta made that kind of offer tells me Paul believes there's a lot of future value in Beltre.

The second idea is that it's okay for the Yankees to trade Eric Duncan because A-Rod is blocking him at third. This reminds me of the Red Sox trading Jeff Bagwell because Scott Cooper was blocking him at third. Remember the defensive spectrum:

<-- Increasing need for defense
P  C  SS  2B  CF  3B  RF  LF  1B  DH
Increasing need for offense -->

A good offensive player who is blocked at third has plenty of room to move right on this spectrum. And a great defensive third baseman can actually move left to 2nd or even short. Remember Cal Ripken? I don't know enough about Duncan to say where he could be moved, but the idea that he couldn't play on the Yankees because of A-Rod is incorrect.

Update: ESPN is saying that the Johnson deal is not as close as reported last night.

Posted by David Pinto at 08:33 AM | Defense • | Free Agents • | Trades | TrackBack (0)

Comments

While I agree that a jump in stats is more likely to be real for someone 25 than 29 are there any examples of any players who have had 2,000+ (around 2,800 for Beltre) at bats of mediocre performance and then suddenly became a superstar caliber player... at any age?

Posted by: John Gibson at December 17, 2004 09:58 AM

Baseball Reference compares Beltre's statistics from ages 21-25 to those of Ron Santos, a solid third baseman and potential HOF player. Different eras perhaps, but Santos played his home games in Wrigley, a good hitter's park (especially in the 60s).

And I'm reluctant to qualify him as "mediocre". Inconsistent, perhaps but he's had only one truly poor season (2003). Besides, when you consider that he's going to a Seattle team who's primary third baseman - Spezio - batted .215 it's gotta be worth the gamble.

Posted by: Cool Papa at December 17, 2004 10:39 AM

Take a look at Robin Yount, John. His power jumped at age 24, then at age 26 his OBA followed. He was a two time MVP and a Hall of Famer.

Posted by: David Pinto at December 17, 2004 10:51 AM

I'd say being blocked by ARod and being blocked by Scott cooper were two different things. The supposed problem with Bagwell was the Red Sox didn't believe he could play third in the bigs, probably right, and wouldn't hit for enough power at 1st, obviously wrong.

Posted by: Jack Tanner at December 17, 2004 11:22 AM

David, I'm not saying that on that basis alone it's worth trading him. But when you look at Duncan's minor league numbers, they're not inspiring enough that you would move him to one of the positions on the right. And that's at high A Ball. And then when you consider some of the contracts the Yankees have, you see that he's blocked at RF for 2006 and at DH for even longer after that unless they somehow get out of the Giambi contract. So Duncan basically has little chance to make the team is what I was really trying to point out.

Posted by: Adam at December 17, 2004 11:33 AM

In Beltre's case its also worth remembering that he nearly died from complications from surgery-- appendicitis is thought of as routine, but in his case it was not... its not unreasonable to think that a major surgery and infection including a huge weight loss might have put a dent in the curve of his development...

There can be a risk in judging ALL cases from numbers-- IIRC Pedro Guerrero's MLE's are way below what he actually did, not because MLE's don't work, but because they can't see the leg injury which dogged him for two or three years in the minors, but cleared up in the bigs...

The Bagwell trade is aways spoken of as Bagwell vs Cooper-- but the Red Sox had blockage "preventing" Bagwell from moving over, too-- Mo Vaughn and Carlos Quintana at first, Greenwell, Brunansky, Jack Clark, and Phil Plantier elsewhere, plus there was thought already of moving John Valentin to 3rd wasn't there? It wasn't so much that they found Bagwell wanting in re Cooper as that they had a logjam developing... and they were already taking a chance on/trying to change one weird stance with Plantier.

It was a bad trade, but easier to understand if you look at the whole roster... and remember that they didn't know Jack Clark was about crispy, Quintana had limited life expectancy, Brunansky was a puddin' and Plantier was a fake. Vaugn did win somebody else's MVP if I recall...

Posted by: john swinney at December 17, 2004 12:44 PM

David: See the LA Times and MLB. It seems that the Dodgers offered about $10 million a year, compared to the approximately $13 million presented by Seattle.

But the real key is that the Mariners' offer was apparently frontloaded, with $17 million or so coming next year. I think that high level made DePodesta pretty reluctant. After all, the Dodgers have a tremendous number of holes to fill -- from the starting rotation to catcher -- and locking up about two players' worth of salaries would have constrained the club. Moreover, if we consider that it's DePo's first offseason, and he likely wants to shape the team as he sees fit, that constraint would become even more unattractive.

DePo's offer for a longer contract did indeed send a strong signal about Beltre's esteem. It also obviously reflected the Dodgers' reservation point, which was around $10 million per annum.

These are difficult times for us Dodger fans. I would have probably gone a bit higher than DePo, but at the same time, many columnists back in LA are pinning all of these difficulties on McCourt's finances and perhaps DePo's bargain-hunting. In fact, though, there seem to be some potential reasonable explanations for what went down. Again, I just would have gone a slightly different route.

Posted by: Robert Tagorda at December 17, 2004 01:14 PM

The minor leagues are full of prospects and can't miss players. Take the proven player for today and worry about tomorrow later. The Yankees are doing the right thing. Next year there will be more free agents to pick from.

Posted by: Tom at December 17, 2004 01:14 PM

Just as it is telling that DePo was willing to give 6 years to Beltre, I think it is telling that Young Theo was willing to give Pedro three years. If his shoulder is so torn up, would Theo have offered that long a contract?

Posted by: Tom G at December 17, 2004 01:32 PM

Can I refer you to this post, which gives some more context about Beltre's value from 2000 on? (Click the link on my name.)

Posted by: Jon at December 17, 2004 02:11 PM

This isn't meant as flamebait, but I'm surprised no one has suggested any relationship between Beltre and performance enhancing drugs. A mediocre player suddenly has a HUGE season (especially considering his home ballpark), and no one brings up the possibility? I'm not accusing him in the least, but his enormous season does seem a bit...out of place...considering the rest of his career.

Posted by: sabernar at December 17, 2004 03:28 PM

I think it's highly unlikely that Beltre would decide to start taking PEDs in the season when they first started testing for them.

Posted by: Larry Mahnken at December 18, 2004 02:14 PM

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