That's a pretty sound summation...perhaps a bit on the negative side.

First of all, I wonder, is the Manny situation overblown? He's one of the best hitters in the game...hands down...and there's just no way the Sox are going to trade him. Is he really that disruptive when he's unhappy? Because, the rest of the lineup be damned, a 3-4 of Papi and Manny is still ferocious.

Second of all, David last year pointed out here, quite aptly, that Schilling's return was marred by some bad luck on top of his injury, and, especially down the stretch, his K and BB totals were hurt by higher than normal BABIP. If his peripherals close to the end of his season were more like his career...and they were...Curt stands a good chance of being much more like his 2004 self than not, if he can stay healthy.

Those are both really just notions...he seems to peg it pretty good.

IMO the Sox should have been more aggressive shortly after they signed Beckett - at that point, they could have convinced other FAs they were still a team that could contend for a championship.

Right now, they'd be hard-pressed to convince *anyone* to sign & play in Boston with the state of affairs right now.

If it was my team, I'd see what I could get for Schilling and Manny & move on.

How are K and BB rates effected by BABIP? Doesn't a fairly hit ball end that batter's time up no matter what the fielders do? I guess it makes you face more batters, which would potentially help the K rate and hurt the BB rate?

Two questions:

1.) When did the '05-'06 free agents suddenly get so attractive?
2.) When did Johnny Damon become more like Moe Berg than Moe Howard?

DCPI...you've got it right: both K and BB rates per 9 innings should actually increase with a higher BABIP, as more hitters reach base and the pitcher faces more batters...better measures are probably K/batter faced and BB/batter faced.

In any case, many pundits suggest that K/BB/HR rates are the only things that pitchers can control, and that BABIP is a function of luck and defense behind the pitcher. I failed to articulate clearly what I meant, which is that Schilling's decent K and BB rates suggested a better ERA, but were hurt by his ghastly BABIP (last year his BABIP was .371, vs. a .284 in 2004). A rate stat history for Schilling:

YEAR ERA BB/BF K/BF BABIP
1988 9.82 .132 .053 .328
1989 6.23 .079 .158 .296
1990 2.54 .099 .168 .266
1991 3.81 .116 .211 .344
1992 2.35 .066 .164 .227
1993 4.02 .058 .189 .296
1994 4.48 .078 .161 .295
1995 3.57 .055 .241 .264
1996 3.19 .068 .249 .277
1997 2.97 .057 .316 .304
1998 3.25 .056 .275 .305
1999 3.54 .060 .207 .263
2000 3.91 .068 .203 .284
2000 3.69 .034 .186 .287
2001 2.98 .038 .287 .307
2002 3.23 .032 .311 .297
2003 2.95 .048 .288 .297
2004 3.26 .038 .223 .284
2005 5.69 .053 .208 .371

That all said, his BB/BF rate was pretty high by his standards, and his K/BF was fairly low. Nonetheless, the reall glaring stat is that .371 BABIP. If he gets that down...and I'll bet he does...he ought to be okay.

Keep whistling through the graveyard. It's over.

toronto is looking like #2 in the AL East right now....word is manny and clement could go to baltimore for tejada...