July 17, 2007
Splitting Their Best Hitters
In Monday night's game against the Padres the Mets young stars, Reyes and Wright combined for five hits. But the two batters between them, Milledge and Beltran combined to go 0 for 8. Looking at the numbers in that boxscore, the Mets don't really have a good option to stick between their two great hitters. Beltran's slump is in the middle of its third month. Milledge hasn't shown he can hit major league pitching yet. Delgado's OBA has plummeted. The Mets may be better off batting Wright second, just to get those two strong bats reinforcing each other. It will give the batters behind them plenty of opportunities to drive in runs.
I was criticized for picking the Mets first this year based on their great offense. I was told the pitching wasn't good enough. But the offense ranks tenth in runs per game, and the staff is third in ERA. I guess we were all wrong about this team.
Remember when you picked Houston to win the NL Central?
Shawn Green is finished. Can't expect any more useful ABs from him this year. Delgado is clearly on the way down. Valentin will not recapture last year's magic, and Gotay is a poor hitter who happens to be hot right now.
All in all, I'd say the Mets have a tough road ahead of them. Wagner has been lights-out, and if he stumbles a bit in the second half of the year (or in the playoffs, as has been known to happen), it could spell a lot of trouble in Flushing.
Beltran is the variable. If he hits, all is well. If not the offense will be counting on an August/September boost from Alou.
The critical variable isn't Beltran or any other single hitter. It's simple lack of timing. The Mets are 5th in the NL in OBA, 6th in SLG, but 10th in runs. It's their lineup-wide Mendoza-line production with RISP that has been the difference-maker.