March 17, 2008
Rotation Evaluation, Cincinnati Reds
The series looking at team pitching rotations using the Marcel the Monkey projections continues with the Cincinnati Reds. Their starters posted a 4.86 ERA in 2007, eleventh in the National League.
Note that in figuring ERAs, I'm using Marcel's mIP and mER columns. The ERA listed in the spreadsheet uses the average of mER and bsrER. I wanted to avoid posting 1/2 runs in the table. Pitcher order is taken from the CBSSportsline depth chart. Since Johnny Cueto does not have a Marcel projection, I used PECOTA instead.
Aaron Harang
Photo: Icon SMI
Marcel predictions for the Cincinnati Reds top five starters for 2008.
| Starter | Innings | ER | ERA |
| Aaron Harang | 199 | 86 | 3.89 |
| Bronson Arroyo | 189 | 85 | 4.05 |
| Josh Fogg | 158 | 89 | 5.07 |
| Matt Belisle | 134 | 72 | 4.84 |
| Johnny Cueto | 130 1/3 | 70 | 4.83 |
| Totals | 813 1/3 | 402 | 4.45 |
The Reds are a tough rotation to judge right now since they have three young pitchers who may end up at the back of the rotation. Only Cueto makes the top five of the depth chart, but Edison Volquez is pitching just as well this spring, and Homer Bailey remains a top prospect. The good news for the Reds is that they have the innings to get them most of the way through the seasons, and with the young guns in reserve, Cincinnati has the option of jettisoning Fogg and Belisle if they don't perform well.
Reds fans are certainly excited about the youngsters, and as I said this morning, this could end up being the best one through five rotations in the NL.
Previous posts in this series:
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