August 18, 2008
The Good Pitcher Theory
YFSF looks at how the Red Sox perform against the best pitchers in the league and find they lose more than other top offenses. I like these kind of studies, and if I have time later today I'll run a similar program I wrote. My guess is that the Red Sox are a bit walk dependent, and as the good starters average just two walks per start against Boston, they're taking away a key part of the team's offense.
David,
First, the sample size for the study is tiny (12-18 games per team).
Second, there is very little difference between the teams in runs scored (or other offensive stats) against the pitchers chosen. About the best you could say about the study is that it does not support the hypothesis that Boston performs differently to other top offenses against the selected pitchers.
Third, given how similar the offensive performance was I would look first at RA to see if it explained the worse W/L record for Bos.
I have a hard time imagining that this kind of study will yield anything useful.
Finally, I am intrigued by your suggestion that the Sox are too walk dependent. They are tops in BA in the AL and 3rd in SLG.