May 13, 2008
Cubs Runs
The Cubs defeated the hapless Padres last night 12-3. That raises their runs per game average to 5.9. Chicago has a very strange run distribution for that average, however. Chicago is playing about two games under their Pythagorean estimate, and it's this concave distribution that may be the problem. They played 18 games where they've scored seven or more runs. They've played fourteen games, however, where they scored three or fewer runs. In other words, the area around five and six is nearly empty. The bell curve, if you will, is upside down. They've played 14 games that were tough to win, eighteen games that were easy to win, and only four games where you would expect the result to be competitive.
The Cubs have yet to record a score of 4 or 5 runs this season. I suspect that with all the walks the team is drawing this season, they are susceptible to pitchers who stay in the strike zone. We'll see how this plays out over the season. I suspect by the end of the year we'll see a lot more games with the Cubs in the 4, 5, and 6 run range.