Baseball Musings: Predicting Wins

December 20, 2005

Predicting Wins

Mets Geek uses Value Over Replacement Player (VORP) to try to see how many wins the Mets added with their moves this off season. He pegs them at 95 wins. This post pegged them at 93 wins using a seat of the pants win shares estimate at the end of November.

Posted by David Pinto at 08:49 PM | Team Evaluation | TrackBack (0)

Comments

Sounds good to me...LETS GO METS!!!

By the way, when we win the World Series i dont wanna hear any talk about 'buying it.' First off, the mets payroll is exactly the same as last year thanks to piazza, cedeno, mo vaughn, cameron, looper and others coming off the books. Also it is impossible to buy a world series- just ask the yankees!!

Posted by: tony flynn at December 20, 2005 09:09 PM

82 wins. braves win with 94 wins

Posted by: colin at December 20, 2005 10:08 PM

Colin, the Mets won 83 games last year, and they just improved the club. I'm guessing at least 90 wins.

No predictions on the Braves, because they're like that ghoul from a late-night horror movie. Should be a fun, two-team race though.

Posted by: paul at December 20, 2005 10:18 PM

The Mets need their starting pitchers to remain healthy, and one more good live arm in the bullpen, and they will have the capacity to be a force. They have a pretty wide range on upside and downside, and a lot of that variance rides on Pedro's arm. Now, if only they'd take Reyes out of the leadoff spot and let him lead the league in outs made from the 8 hole...or, heaven forbid...learn how to take a walk in front of the pitcher.

Posted by: Dave S. at December 20, 2005 10:34 PM

Mets lead the world in counting unhatched chickens. I'm still waiting for Pulsifer, Isringhausen, Wilson, etc. to dominate for a decade.

Posted by: high&tight at December 20, 2005 11:47 PM

last i saw jason isringhausen wasnt doing too bad

Posted by: tony flynn at December 21, 2005 03:50 AM

but not dominating for a decade...sorry

Posted by: tony flynn at December 21, 2005 03:50 AM

this isn't a video game, this is real life. just b/c you trade/sign players to make an all-star lineup doesnt mean you will win like one. in fact, some might say that it would be harder to win with that many all-star egos.

i say clubhouse problems AND A LOWSY BULLPEN drag the team down all year and make a mess of everything: 82 wins! tied for 2nd place w/ philly and behind atlanta, lose out on the wildcard to the padres.

PS: has anyone figured out how they are going to afford david wright when he's ready for a grown-up contract?

Posted by: benjah at December 21, 2005 08:57 AM

soooooo typical of mets fans to celebrate this kind of irresponsible team building....all that money and you can't buy a clue

Posted by: benjah at December 21, 2005 08:58 AM

What clubhouse problems? They traded for LoDuca partly because he would be a positive clubhosue presence. And the bullpen, as is, is not exactly "lowsy [sic]" with Heilmann setting up Wagner. It's true they could use another middle reliever or two, but it's hardly a disaster area.

As for Wright being a free agent three or four years hence, I think they'll have more than enough revenue coming in from their tv contract. Also, they will no longer have Pedro, Glavine or even Wagner's contract hindering them by that point.

It also amuses me how people deride the Mets for being freespenders. Their payroll will be about the same next year, perhaps a few million higher. I'm not sure what's irresponsible about acquiring a fireballing lefthanded closer and a dominant power hitting first baseman, but I suppose they should have just stuck with Loopy and Menky. Those are indispensible cogs to any winning ballclub.

Posted by: paul at December 21, 2005 10:49 AM

the clubhouse problems i'm referring to are the ones that start right after the fly balls start falling in right and left where beltran can't run them down. you know, right after pedro starts shooting his mouth off about getting ND everytime he pitches b/c the middle relief blew his lead and heilmann or wagner had to get it back (or not). i LOVE loduca (i got his autograph when he was a AA prospect w/ LA) but he cant handle a lockerroom all by himself.

this team is like a sandwich w/ gormet bread and backshelf-oscar-meyer cold-cuts and moldy cheese. im surprised menky wasnt more effective w/ the bat, but the fact that infield errors for the mets dropped off dramaticly when he played 1B instead of piazza is NOT a coincidence. expect them to go back up w/ the bag of rocks they picked up manning first.

i dont exactly have a problem w/ their organizational philosophy, and i dont have a problem w/ them raking in the cash from their TV station. but the yankees have been blasted for years over doing the same thing. why the double standard?

i didnt realize wright was signed for that long. when is he arbitration eligible?? and why wouldnt he demand top dollar?

Posted by: benjah at December 21, 2005 11:18 AM

Wright only has 1.5 years of service. Someone can correct me if I am wrong, but he wouldn't become a FA until after his 6th season. Or is it after #5?

I, for one, have not been critical of the Yankees and their revenue stream. They have every right to earn as much as they can, I would just question the manner in which they have spent it. The Mets have not been quite as profligate. They have kept their better minor league talent, and have a pretty good mix of young and old.

Menky was a good defensive first baseman, but the offensive between he and Delgado is so immense that there's no way that defensive ability alone could overcompensate. I also don't forsee the problems you mentioned - I think they'll be able to catch enough fly ball to keep Pedro happy, and without Looper there to blow his games, he'll get his 18-20 wins next year.

Posted by: paul at December 21, 2005 11:59 AM

Offensive "difference" of course, is what I meant in the above comment.

Posted by: paul at December 21, 2005 12:00 PM

paul-i think you're right; i was exagerating to make a point. i am a huge fan of randolf, so i hope if it works out he gets the credit he deserves.

Posted by: benjah at December 21, 2005 01:04 PM

padres are winning 85 games next year and getting the west again. mets stink. pedro, glavine, wagner, chris benson. oh god!!!

braves, padres, wildcard: astros, cardinals... all over again

i'd take pevy, hoffman, linebrink over all of them. hahahahah the nl west is bad!!!

Posted by: colin at December 23, 2005 10:48 PM

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