February 27, 2008
Rotation Evaluation, Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim
The series looking at team pitching rotations using the Marcel the Monkey projections continues with the LAnaheim Angels. Their starters posted 4.22 ERA in 2007, third in the American League.
Note that in figuring ERAs, I'm using Marcel's mIP and mER columns. The ERA listed in the spreadsheet uses the average of mER and bsrER. I wanted to avoid posting 1/2 runs in the table. Pitcher order is taken from the CBSSportsline depth chart.
Kelvim Escobar
Photo: Icon SMI
Marcel predictions for the LAnaheim Angels top five starters for 2008.
| Starter | Innings | ER | ERA |
| John Lackey | 194 | 75 | 3.48 |
| Jon Garland | 185 | 88 | 4.28 |
| Jered Weaver | 153 | 62 | 3.65 |
| Joe Saunders | 121 | 60 | 4.46 |
| Kelvim Escobar | 175 | 72 | 3.70 |
| Totals | 828 | 357 | 3.88 |
Escobar is injured and Santana is slotted to start the season as the team's fifth starter. However, since Escobar is due back in May, I decided to write him and go with the better Angels rotation. That projection for Kelvim is likely a bit optimistic at this point, at least in terms of innings.
Still, the Angels have to be very happy that they project to send three starters to the mound with ERAs under 4.00. Unlike the other teams in the study so far, the Angels have fewer innings to distribute to other starters this season. With Santana the swing man, the team is in very good shape, especially if they can spot start Ervin in Anaheim where he's been great.
(If Santana is the fifth starter, the projection is for 807 innings, 367 ER, and a 4.09 ERA. Still very good.)
Previous posts in this series: