July 15, 2008
Must Be Missing the Angels
Ervin Santana pitches a complete game shutout in Kansas City on May 5, 2008.
Photo: Icon SMI
The Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim not only hold the biggest lead of any first place team, they are tied with the Cubs for the best record in baseball. The Cubs own the highest run difference (Runs Scored-Runs Allowed) in baseball, so it's not surprising they have the best record. The Angels, on the other hand, have out-scored their opponents by just 21 runs, more in-line with a 50-45 seasons, seven games worse.
The Angels are one of the few teams this season that excels on the road. Their 31-18 record is the best in the majors. The offense is about the same, scoring about 4.3 runs per game both home and road. The pitching, however, is posting a 3.45 ERA on the road, the best in the majors. Some credit here goes to Ervin Santana, who is 8-1 with a 3.44 ERA away from Anaheim after a horrible performance away last season.
So the Angels are a good road team that is over performing at home. They own a 26-20 record in Anaheim despite being outscored there. I like that combination for continued success. With Guerrero's bat heating up since the start of June, runs should be a bit easier to come by. I'm guessing by the end of the season their run difference is much more in line with a first place team.
That variance to their Pythagorean Expectation isn't a good thing, it is one giant black cloud that awaits them in the second half. This is an average ball club that has gotten lucky in close games, so far this season. They have an excellent bullpen, so they can expect to somewhat out perform their Expectation, but certainly not to the degree that they did in the first half. The Angels would do well to finish out there remaining games at .500.