Baseball Musings: Seattle Cardinals

February 06, 2007

Seattle Cardinals

Detect-o-Vision is rather positive about the Mariners chances this year, and compares their rotatin favorably to the 2006 Cardinals. He's assuming, of course, that the new, slimmer King Felix turns out to be Chris Carpenter.

Posted by David Pinto at 09:00 AM | Team Evaluation | TrackBack (0)

Comments

Outside of Carpenter the 2006 Cardinals rotation was horrible so I don't think I'd want to use them as a measuring stick.

The 2006 Seattle offense ranked 27th in OBP and 18th in SLG and made to major changes to the lineup.

90 wins seems like wishful thinking to me.

Posted by: Tom at February 6, 2007 10:48 AM

I assume you meant to say "no major changes", well that may be true, but they made several small, important changes.

They'll be better at DH
They'll likely be better at 1B
They project to be better at 3B
They'll be way way way way way better in CF

Jose Lopez, Yuniesky Betancourt, and Kenji Johjima all enter their 2nd full year in the majors so they could all also improve some.

And no one, save LF (Ibanez) is expected to get any worse.

This is why any projection of team based performance based on the previous year is flawed. You have to look at the players making up the teams, don't assume the team is the same just because they didn't make a headline inducing offensive signing. That's just lazy.

The Mariners, right now, project to score about 800 runs, which playing 1/2 their games in SafeCo Field, is an above average offense.

Posted by: Matthew at February 6, 2007 11:05 AM

Wow. $ =/= Wins there, D-o-V.

1. Ibanez cannot and will not repeat what he did last year.
2. The '06 Cardinals had an actual bullpen.
3. There is no indication or suggestion that the DP combo is set for a breakout, nor is there any huge amount of potential from those two. While the author chastises people for unrealistic pitching expectations because of the '04 Red Sox, he suffers from a massive case of Ecksteinitis, and equating "below league average" with "quality major leaguers".

Posted by: NoPepperGames at February 6, 2007 11:13 AM

Jose Vidro improves them at DH? 1B and 3B are still Sexson and Beltre who hit close to their career averages. The only other change is Guillen over Reed which should help if Guillen stays healthy.

Posted by: Tom at February 6, 2007 11:28 AM

The DP Combo of Lopez and Betancourt has a serious chance of breaking out. At minimum, Yubet has a Ozzie-caliber glove, and good legs which matter because he puts the ball in play.

Jose Lopez made the All-Star team last year, had a SLG over 500 at 20 in a pitcher's park in AAA, and is only 23. he could easily break out into a 285/340/490 2B, and that would be spectacular performance.

Also - why CAN'T Ibanez repeat what he did last year? I'd agree that its unlikely, but so long as his tools stay the same, there's no reason his performance HAS TO decline.

The M's have a solid staff that will rely on a very good defense, and their offense should be more than up to the task of outscoring the opposition. Will they get a ring? I doubt it sincerely, but 85 wins is not out of the question.

Posted by: JJ at February 6, 2007 02:40 PM

First off, NO ONE has an Ozzie-caliber glove. That statement alone suggests that you suffer from a massive case of delusion (or a BP-only mindset). Yubet is an excellent fielder - but do not get carried away, it vastly weakens your overall argument, and makes non-homers much less likely to take you seriously.

As for Lopez being an All-Star, so was Mark Redman. So was the overly overrated Gary Matthews. So was David Eckstein (over Jimmy Rollins)! His .505 SLG was due to an inordinate amount of doubles - but you're right, he could produce some power. But a 490 SLG is WAY out of his projection.

And for Ibanez, his 06 numbers were completely anomalous. It's like the demon that possessed Renteria in '03 made his way to Seattle last year. And his performance isn't going to decline - his incredible streak of luck at getting the ball out of the park is going to regress. His AVG stayed relatively the same. His K:BB rate actually got much worse. His OBP has been about the most consistent stat in baseball. That suggests that his near-doubling of HRs and huge increase in RBIs has been merely coincidental.

Their offense can really improve (they don't have much other choice). But I see a record number of blown leads and/or a number of injuries to the starters as they're kept in games for too long for fear that those horrible middle relievers will get on the mound.

Posted by: NoPepperGames at February 6, 2007 03:09 PM

Thanks for the shout-out Sr. Pinto. Back atcha. :- )

D-O-V's take on the M's is not as optimistic as y'might think with a glance at that one article ...

And the 2006 Cards ain't the best comp to the 07 M's rotationwise...

And even if they were, it wouldn't prove they're a ball of fire...

A careful consideration of the M's chances is another subject :- ) but the general concept of a 1 + 4 rotation is an interesting one.

Keep up da good work amigo,
Jeff

Posted by: Dr. D at February 7, 2007 01:02 AM

Archives

By Category:
Advertising (7)
Agents (11)
All-Star Game (173)
All-Time Greats (207)
Army Strong (8)
Attendance (174)
Authors (3)
Awards (168)
Base Running (77)
Baseball (1580)
Baseball Jerks (212)
Blogs (721)
Books (109)
Broadcasts (551)
Charity (41)
Cheating (573)
Collectibles (14)
Colleges (3)
Commissioner (36)
Conditioning (1)
Contests (10)
Crime (88)
Cuba (1)
Deaths (150)
Defense (358)
Demographics (8)
Discipline (12)
Division Races (721)
Draft (62)
Equipment (21)
Fan Rant (44)
Fan Violence (10)
Fans (56)
Fantasy Baseball (38)
Feats (3)
Films (2)
Free Agents (576)
Games (5548)
History (93)
Hit Streaks (22)
Humor (56)
Ice Cream (4)
Illnesses (125)
Independent Leagues (16)
Infrastructure (3)
Injuries (1053)
International (70)
Interviews (162)
League Championship Series (1170)
League Division Series (923)
Little League (2)
Management (1207)
Mascots (4)
Matchups (698)
Mechandising (43)
Minor Leagues (11)
Movies (9)
News Media (87)
Oddities (1)
Offense (209)
Old Timers (4)
On Base (18)
Opening Day (210)
Opening Day Impressions (19)
Other (296)
Owners (58)
Pennant Races (32)
Pitchers (2850)
Players (1441)
Podcasts (185)
Post Season (59)
Power Hitting (5)
Pranks (1)
Predictions (134)
Probabilistic Model of Range (102)
Public Relations (8)
Records (151)
Rivals (2)
Rookies (44)
Rules (23)
Salaries (8)
Scheduling (21)
Scoring (5)
Series (61)
Simulations (5)
Sluggers (752)
Spring Training (104)
Stadiums (244)
Standings (25)
Statistics (981)
steroids (1)
Strategy (167)
Streaks (14)
Superstitions (16)
Team Evaluation (894)
Team Movements (58)
Tickets (47)
Trades (663)
Transactions (254)
Umpires (52)
Uniforms (16)
Union (19)
Welcome! (3)
women (3)
World Cup (148)
World Series (656)

By Month:
November 2008
October 2008
September 2008
August 2008
July 2008
June 2008
May 2008
April 2008
March 2008
February 2008
January 2008
December 2007
November 2007
October 2007
September 2007
August 2007
July 2007
June 2007
May 2007
April 2007
March 2007
February 2007
January 2007
December 2006
November 2006
October 2006
September 2006
August 2006
July 2006
June 2006
May 2006
April 2006
March 2006
February 2006
January 2006
December 2005
November 2005
October 2005
September 2005
August 2005
July 2005
June 2005
May 2005
April 2005
March 2005
February 2005
January 2005
December 2004
November 2004
October 2004
September 2004
August 2004
July 2004
June 2004
May 2004
April 2004
March 2004
February 2004
January 2004
December 2003
November 2003
October 2003
September 2003
August 2003
July 2003
June 2003
May 2003
April 2003
March 2003
February 2003
January 2003
December 2002
November 2002
October 2002
September 2002
August 2002
July 2002
June 2002
May 2002
April 2002
March 2002

Credits

Partners

Baseball Musings Ticket Store
Advertise on the Baseball Blogosphere!
Baseball Musings Fantasy Games
Sports Books
Fan Store

Patrons

Jan in Wellesley
Jack Spellman

Links

Baseball Info Solutions The publisher of the Bill James Handbook and a great source of stats.

ESPN.com's baseball page.

STATS, Inc. You'll find great baseball books and fantasy games here.

Baseball Direct Scoreboard This is powered by STATS, Inc. Good box scores, and good situational stats.

Baseball Reference.com It's like having Total Baseball and the Big Mac online!

Baseball Prospectus.com Wonderful commentary and analysis.

Baseball Primer Baseball for the Thinking Fan.

The Hardball Times Baseball. Insight. Daily.

Takkle High School Sports

Minor League Spilts Database Up-to-date minor league statistics, broken down by situation.

Inside The Book A blog by the authors of The Book.

Baseboogle A search engine for baseball research sites.

Win Shares From Major League Baseball Graphs.

The Transaction Guy A baseball transactions blog.

Japan Baseball Daily An English language site for Japanese baseball news and stats.

Doug's Business of Baseball Weblog A blog with a focus on the economics of the game.

Why I Like Baseball A Yankee fan writes about her favorite team.

Skilton's Baseball Links Links to numerous baseball sources.

Dan Lewis A blog about all sports.

Birds in the Belfry A site about the Orioles. Articles and research.

Only Baseball Matters A baseball blog by a John J. Perricone.

Jocksalot Lots of sports links.

Al's Ramblings A Brewer's blog.

Futility Infielder Jay Jaffe's baseball site. More than just a blog.

Mike's Baseball Rants Mike Carminati's baseball blog.

Aaron's Baseball Blog A general interest baseball blog.

Boy of Summer Travis Nelson on baseball.

Baseball Crank Dan McLaughlin's blog on baseball, the war and politics.

Bambino's Curse Edward Cossette's blog about the Red Sox.

Oakland Athletics Blog David Levens writes about the A's.

Ducksnorts Articles and Blog by Geoff.

Boston Sports Media Bruce Allen's roundup of the Boston Sports Media.

The Diamond Angle An online baseball magazine.

The Cub Reporter A Chicago Cubs blog.

Bronx Banter A baseball blog by Al Belth.

At Home Plate Articles by Jonathan Leshanski.

Dodger Thoughts Jon Weisman on the Dodgers.

The Clark & Addison Chronicle A Chicago Cubs web log.

Baseball Writing Joe Zibell's essays on baseball.

The Eddie Kranepool Society A Mets blog.

Mariners Weblog The Seattle Post-Intelligencer's weblog written by Shannon Fears

PortlandSoxFan.com A Red Sox blog from Portland, CT.

The Detroit Tigers Weblog Two Tigers fans and their take on the Motor City team.

A Rookie's Life The blog of Cleveland Indians' rookie Jody Gerut.

The Baseball Desert An Englishman living in France writes about the American game.

ChiSox Daily Mike Lubuda writes about the White Sox.

Shallow Center A blog mostly about the Phillies.

The House that Dewey Built Jeff Kuhn writes about the Red Sox.

SethSpeaks.net A blog by a Twins fan.

Frank's Field of Dreams News about Asian players in the United States.

Jay's Giants Blog William Jay blogging about the Giants.

Baseball Savant Cutting edge baseball news and analysis updated everyday from all aspects of the greatest show on dirt!

Athletics Nation Blogging about the A's.

Red Reporter JD Arney writes about the Reds.

Dominican Players Raul Tavares writes about players from his home country.

The Pearly Gates An Anaheim Angels Blog.

Red Sox Haven Randy Booth on baseball.

Tigers Weblog The Detroit News weblog on the Tigers, written by Tom Gage.

Management by Baseball Jeff Angus writes on how business can learn from baseball.

The View From the Bleachers A Chicago Cubs blog.

Cubs Now! Brian Hipp on the Cubs.

Honest Wagner A Pittsburgh Pirates weblog.

All-Baseball.com A collection of excellent baseball weblogs.

Soxaholix A comic strip blog about the Red Sox.

Most Valuable Network Blogging all 30 teams.

Baseball, Etcetera Andrew Godfrey's baseball blog.

Most Valuable Network, Astros Lisa Gray and others write about the Astros.

fenwayfanatics.com A Boston Red Sox blog.

Balls, Sticks & Stuff A sports blog with an emphasis on baseball.

Phillies Nation Brian Michael writes about the Phillies.

Batgirl Less stats, more sass.

Sabernomics Economic thinking about baseball.

Fire Brand of the American League A blog about the Red Sox.

Ivy Chat Chicago Cubs and other rants.

Baseball Evolution A group website writing about baseball.

The Cubdom.com Byron Clarke blogs about the Cubs.

Red Sox Stats Sabermetric numbers for the Red Sox system.

DRays Bay A blog devoted to the Tampa Bay Devil Rays.

Baseball Analysts Rich Lederer and Bryan Smith combine their baseball expertise into a single site.

Over the Monster A Red Sox blog by Randy Booth.

Viva el Birdos Ghosts of the St. Louis Cardinals past, present, and future.

Black Sox Blog A look at the current and historical teams of the South Side of Chicago.

Redleg Nation A group blog about the Cincinnati Reds.

Barry's Journal Barry Bonds' web log.

Hardball Dollars Keeping track of major league salaries.

Clem's Baseball and it's "Green Cathedrals" The resource for baseball stadiums on the web.

The Baseball Zealot Looking at the game of baseball from all sides of the spectrum .

Was Watching Laconic commentary from a Yankeeland zealot.

Bleed Cubbie Blue A Chicago Cubs blog.

Beaneball A's baseball from the heart of New York City.

The Writers A collection of sports writers express their opinions.

Yard Work What the Baseball Tonight crew would write if it could.

United States of Baseball Peter Handrinos' baseball columns.

Beer Leaguer Alternative veiwpoints on the Philadelphia Phillies.

Red Sox Connection Links to everything Red Sox.

Baseball Pilgrimages Stories of visits to baseball parks.

Fangraphs Multi-year charts of player stats.

Roto Authority Unique fantasy baseball information.

Yanksfan vs. Soxfan A Yankees fan and a Red Sox fan battle it out in the blogosphere.

Sawxblog.com A Red Sox fan writes about the home town team.

Oriole Magic An MVN blog about the Orioles.

The Baltimore Chop Joseph Jackson on the Orioles.

Lookout Landing A Seattle Mariners blog.

Sons of Bart Brush A blog about the Harvard baseball team.

Base Blogging A resource for sports and baseball bloggers.

Three True Outcomes A group blog by on major league baseball.

Cardinals Diaspora A blog for Cardinals fans living away from St. Louis.

Where Have You Gone, Andy Van Slyke? A Pittsburgh fan chronicles life in the Grand Canyon.

Brew Crew Ball A blog about the Milwaukee Brewers.

Getting Paid to Watch Posts by a former trainer for the NY Mets.

The Gas House Gang An historical St. Louis Cardinals Blog.

6-4-2 An Angels/Dodgers double play blog.

El Guapo's Ghost Rambles on about the Red Sox Baseball and the Red Sox.

Baseball Etc

Tiger Tales A Detroit Tigers web log.

The Baseball Card Blog A blog about baseball cards.

Sox1Fan A Red Sox blog.

Out of Left Field Another Red Sox blog.

New York Yankees Update A Yankees blog with lots of photos.

Liberty Ball A current and historical Phillies blog.

Crawfish Boxes A Houston Astros blog.

MLB Rumors Clearinghouse News from around the majors.

Roar From 34 A group blog about the Orioles.

Blogging Baseball All-time baseball highlights and real-time commentary.

Rubber Arm A group blog about major league baseball.

Fenway Nation More news about the Red Sox.

Rays of Light A Devil Rays blog.

Fantasy Baseball Chronicle Information for fantasy players.

American Legends A sports blog.

Duffy's Cliff An interactive Red Sox site, featuring a lexicon of the Red Sox.

Oriole Post - The World of Baseball and Beyond An Orioles blog.

DRays Bay A Devil Rays blog.

Mets Heads A blog about the New York Mets.

The Soul of Baseball Joe Posnanski promotes his book on Buck O'Neil and blogs about baseball.

My Baseball Bias A blog about East Coast baseball.

Sports Business Radio Articles and talk about the business of sports.

The Game of Baseball A blog about Major League Baseball.

Baseball Hot Corner Opinionated observations for the thinking fan.

FantasyDope.com Fantasy baseball news.

Peter's Red Sox Forever A Red Sox blog.

Sox Nest Commentary on the Red Sox.

The Big Oz A Florida Marlins blog.

Baseball Reflections Where old school baseball meets sabermetrics.

The Sommer Frieze A Yankees blog.

Fenway Nation A Red Sox fan site.

In-Between Hops A Milwaukee Brewers blog.

Right Field Bleachers Another Milwaukee Brewers blog.

On Baseball and the Reds Another Cincinnati Reds blog.

Crooked Pitch A fantasy baseball blog.

Bless You Boys A Detroit Tigers blog.

Cubs f/x Pitch f/x and the Chicago Cubs.

The Hot Corner

Eephus Pitch Tossing pure junk about New York baseball since 2006.

It Is High, It Is Far, It Is Caught A tribute to John Sterling.

Baseball GB Baseball from a British perspective.

Nick and Nick's Twins Blog A couple of Nicks write on the Twins.

SkyKing162 Baseball with a hint of lime.

Center Field A Red Sox blog.

Empyreal Environs Writing about the Red Sox.

Trophy League Planet Aggregating the baseball blogosphere.

Cardinals Best News Links Aggregating St. Louis Cardinals news.

Zell's Pinstripe Blog A Yankees Blog.

HSAC Blog Official Musings of the Harvard College Sports Analysis Collective.

The Baseball Fix A general baseball blog.

MLB Roundup A baseball video blog.

Fantasy Dope Fantasy Baseball News.

The Cubs Brickyard Hilarious fake news.

Spitting Seeds A blog about Major League baseball.

Infield Chatter A blog covering all aspects of baseball.

Instapundit Politics and the law. This site inspired me to start blogging.

Wild Treasure Treasure hunts through the blogosphere.

San Diego Ticket Finder San Diego Ticket Information.

Prize Sports.net Baseball Collectibles.

Fantasy Sports R Us The #1 Fantasy Baseball Leagues site on the web.

RotoRank - Fantasy Baseball Draft Guides Customized For Any Fantasy Baseball League.