Baseball Musings: Boundary Layers

June 02, 2007

Boundary Layers

I have a physicist friend who specialized in boundary layers. For example, when an underground fresh water stream flows into the sea, there is a boundary layer between the fresh and salt water that is neither. There is mixing is this layer, so the flow in this layer is different than in either the fresh or salt layer. In looking at the Yankees-Red Sox game today, it appears the Yankees have a boundary layer problem.

The boundary we're talking about here is between the starters and the closers. It seems that as the starter weakens, the initial relievers cause a lot of turbulence in the transition from starter to bullpen. Today it was Mussina and Proctor. Mike gives up home runs to lead off the sixth. Proctor comes in, gets out of the inning, but then melts down in the 7th, allowing five runs and costing the Yankees the game. In the games I've followed recently, that seems to be a pattern. An early exit by a Yankees starter leads to a period of instability where the first relievers in do a lousy job. Eventually they get through it, and the pitchers are okay the rest of the way, but the damage is done. The Yankees have to decide who is the best pitcher out of the bullpen to be the first man in.

Posted by David Pinto at 09:05 PM | Team Evaluation | TrackBack (0)

Comments

Dave, did you see the Cano throw to Jeter that lead to Jeter's throwing error?

I only saw it once but Cano's throw didn't look like a bad throw to me. It seemed like Jeter was to blame on the play despite what McCarver said.

Posted by: Jabes at June 2, 2007 09:43 PM

Well, if the boundary layer is in the 5th or 6th inning, it doesn't much matter. If you use one of your best men first, you'll have to use the other guys eventually. No team can survive indefinitely with such a shaky rotation; sooner or later, the bullpen is exposed or burned out.

The Red Sox' boundary layer is in the later innings, most of the time. Hence, they rarely have to use their mediocre arms in key spots. The Sox' bullpen really isn't much better than the Yankees'; it's just a lot less exposed, because the Boston starters are doing their job.

Posted by: jvwalt at June 2, 2007 09:43 PM

Love the physics analogy, but....

Can't really blame Proctor for this meltdown. Abreu misplayed out 1 into a double, then the infield got one out on two double play balls.

Instead of no runs and five outs, they (thats the defense) gave up five runs and got one out.

Proc only gets billed for 2 (or 3?), he should have been home free.

Posted by: Tano at June 2, 2007 11:05 PM

I think Tano is right - Proctor wasn't great but that inning should have been over way before it was. The other thing about that post is - question for Dave - is there a more effective way to use your closer than the 9th only. Riveria has been sitting around collecting dust this year. It seems reasonable to bring in your closer to get out of a jam in the 7th or put the meat of the opponents order down in the 8th even if you are behind. Has anyone ever done this, if not why?

Posted by: Phil at June 2, 2007 11:54 PM

I agree with Tano and Phil, Proctor pitched well enough to get out of the inning with either 1 or 0 runs. The entire yankee defense looked clueless that inning. Not only Abreu's misplay, which was not an error, but he should have made that catch, 2 missed double plays, and the play where no one was covering third, this arguably could have been another out.

Phil, I recall Theo Epstein had this theory when he first started at the Gm for boston. I can't remember if they ever tried this in a game situation or left it as a theory.

Posted by: Nick at June 3, 2007 12:22 AM

The problem is simply Joe Torre. He cannot manage a bullpen effectively. There was no reason to try and stretch Proctor to two innings. There were tons of times the defense should have gotten them out of the inning but Proctor didn't look good. He threw 38 pitches and it wouldn't surprise me to see him trotted out from the bullpen again.

The bullpen is not the problem. The problem is the use of the bullpen. The wrong relievers are constantly put in during the wrong situations. Proctor had no problems getting out of the sixth inning. He had been used the night before in a game that was fairly well in hand for the Yankees. Tonight he's used again for a season high number of pitches.

The group of guys that Torre trusts is consistently overused while guys like Bruney rot away or are pulled after facing two batters. Vizcaino has been driven into the ground. The Yankees should get rid of Joe Torre and get someone in that knows how to manage a bullpen.

Posted by: Jason at June 3, 2007 01:32 AM

With regard to Phil's theory, that's pretty much the idea behind the 'Relief Ace' theory that Bill James espoused and the Sox tried in 2003. The problem was that they had an idiot manager who thought it meant "everyone gets to be thrown into these critical moments". That, and they had some -really- bad pitchers. Then they got caught up in that whole "bullpen by committee" crap, which was -not- what the Relief Ace principle is all about. Problem is pitchers are far more comfortable knowing their roles. I think you actually have to get a young pitcher who's willing to come in at any time instead of someone set in a role. Like Papelbon last year.

Boston actually managed to get it to work even better this year, I think, but...

What's made it work for Boston this year is that they actually have -two- of them, Okajima and Papelbon, with one being put into these kind of high-leverage situations and then the other one basically getting the save to finish the game off.

Posted by: Digit at June 3, 2007 01:41 AM

Jabes,

I was out most of the afternoon, but came home in time to see the last out of the seventh. I agree that Torre's pitcher management has been poor this season. Part of that is pitchers wearing out early. Part of that is not trusting the younger pitchers to go deep in games if they had problems early.

Posted by: David Pinto at June 3, 2007 07:37 AM

In defense of Joe Torre, a skipper I, a Red Sox fan, admire and treasure, how can ANYONE manage a bullpen when the players, the chess pieces, are so mediocre. The exception, of course, is MO.

Posted by: Peter N. at June 3, 2007 09:22 AM

"I only saw it once but Cano's throw didn't look like a bad throw to me. It seemed like Jeter was to blame on the play despite what McCarver said."

The throw was to the outfield side of 2nd, which meant Jeter was turning away from 1st base when he received it. The spin move he tried looked to be the only way he even had a shot of getting Lowell.

Posted by: Dan Turkenkopf at June 3, 2007 11:29 AM

For starters, why was Proctor left in so long? He should've been out of there as soon as it became evident that he wasn't getting the ball past anyone, he's just too excitable. Secondly, how do you walk Manny to bring up a guy that's hitting over 400 during his 20+ game hitting streak. I really hate intentional walks, and this was a great example of a really stupid move on Torres part.

Posted by: Heath at June 3, 2007 11:30 AM

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