March 27, 2008
Rotation Evaluation, Tampa Bay Rays
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The series looking at team pitching rotations using the Marcel the Monkey projections continues with the Tampa Bay Rays. Their starters posted a 5.20 ERA in 2007, thirteenth in the American League.
Note that in figuring ERAs, I'm using Marcel's mIP and mER columns. The ERA listed in the spreadsheet uses the average of mER and bsrER. I wanted to avoid posting 1/2 runs in the table. Pitcher order is taken from the CBSSportsline depth chart, sort of. I'm assuming here that Kazmir will be back soon and Hammel is better than Jackson.
James Shields
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Marcel predictions for the Tampa Bay Rays top five starters for 2008.
| Starter | Innings | ER | ERA |
| Scott Kazmir | 178 | 71 | 3.59 |
| James Shields | 180 | 83 | 4.15 |
| Matt Garza | 104 | 49 | 4.24 |
| Andy Sonnanstine | 125 | 72 | 5.18 |
| Jason Hammel | 95 | 59 | 5.59 |
| Totals | 682 | 334 | 4.41 |
For a more optimistic look at the Rays rotation (using PECOTA) see my latest SportingNews.com column. Something that Marcels don't pick up that PECOTA captures is fielding. The Rays swapped out one of the worst fielding shortstops of 2007 for one of the best. That should make a big positive difference in the team's ERA. My guess is that Garza and Sonnanstine are going to pitch closer to 160 innings, and eventually they'll replace Jackson with Hammel. Fans are likely to be impressed with the improvement of the team's ERA this year, partially from their pitchers maturing, and partially from the defense playing much better.
Previous posts in this series:
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The ERA seems a little high for Kaz and Shields. I think it's dead on for Sonny(I don't like him that much) and Hammel. Although Jackson is going to be in the rotation much longer than he is anyway, but I expect an ERA similar to that out of him too.