I think it's a mistake to use the Twins as an example of being able to win on a small budget. They've been big frogs in a small pond over the last few years. Their payroll isn't much less than anyone else in their division.
Their more intresting side is their ability to out-perform their pythagorean record over a long time. Is it just luck or have they hit on something?

Letting David Ortiz go last year was a terrible decision. He cost the Red Sox $1.25 million. Perhaps they couldn't have afforded to resign him after his big year last year, but that's no excuse for letting him leave after 2002. In 2004, his $4.5 million salary is such a huge chunk out of Pollard's net worth, it's hard to imagine how his heirs would survive. Oh, wait.

The real story of the Twins is that of an extremely talented franchise (at every level) with the brains of the Red Sox and A's, the money of the yankees, and an owner that refuses to spend it. Their fans should be ticked.

Personal wealth is not the same thing as operating income. I'm not saying Pohlad's guilt free (far from it), but you can't even compare the revenue streams.

Josh misses the point. Ortiz was cheaper for the Red sox because he wasn't that good in 2002. He has benefitted enormously from being in one of the best offensive lineups in a park that is really tailored for his swing. Besides, the twins have a lot of players as good as ortiz waiting to get at bats at 1/4 of the 1.25 mill Boston paid him.

As a Twins fan, what burns me is that they don't USE all the great talent they have. Morneau is wasting away, while Jones still bats against lefthanders.

I would also point out that Koskie and Hunter have been on the DL in the first half and struggled since coming off the DL. It's reasonable to expect that those two will produce significantly more win shares in the second half.

Amen, Ivan! I'm no Twins fan...but I find it incredible that they can clearly develop great talent, but stumble so badly when it comes to fielding it properly on the major league level. Morneau not playing is just brutal.

Is there a disconnect between the manager & GM, between the GM and player development, or between all of them?

They've gone out of their way to sign Stewart and Doug M, while Ford, Ortiz, and Morneau don't play. They still have a horrible middle IF. But, they do win.

It has to be a combination of the GM and manager, but I lean more towards the manager. Gardy likes his "proven veterans". But Ryan obviously either agrees with him or gives in to him on this issue. I mean "FOR GODS SAKES, JOSE OFFERMAN IS GETTING AT BATS!!!!"

Sorry, several months of frustration coming there. Tivo has allowed me to reduce the pain by fast forwarding (at least 2x speed, but usually 4X speed) through the at bats of Offerman, Guzman and Jones against lefties, but it still hurts. (Rivas is usually tops on that list, but he has been absolutely unreal for the last two weeks. And I mean unreal, as in "deal with devil/ Bruce Almighty/WMD intelligence" unreal.

I believe a really creative manager/GM could craft a line up that would win 5-10 more games a year. But I can't really argue for a new GM with the way the farm system develops talent. And they never fire the manager of a winning team.

Ivan

I have asked this very question on my site (www.SethSpeaks.net). They have consistently played above their Pythagorean Numbers the last three-plus years. Their team RCAA is terrible. So, why do they win.
It's not very SABRmetric to say, but I happen to think that they make the case that playing the game "the right way" and doing "the little things" matter.
That, and Terry Ryan has developed a strong minor league system. It still makes no sense since so many of their "key" players have been hurt so much.
Anyway, stop by my site and feel free to respond to that Discussion Question. Responses will be posted later this week.

Seth- I have to ask, what "little things" do they do "the right way". Like you I have watched a lot of games this year, and the twins aren't very good at those things.

They don't steal bases well, they don't bunt well. Their defense is suspect. They frequently make really bad baserunning mistakes (ex. Rivas getting thrown out stretching a single to a double with the winning run on 3rd and one out in extra innings at home).

Ivan

"And I mean unreal, as in "deal with devil/ Bruce Almighty/WMD intelligence" unreal."

Good stuff, Ivan.

tsmonk --

I completely understand what you're saying, and I'd agree if we were talking about widget factories or retail establishments. I'm not one of those purists who thinks that a team belongs to the region in which it belongs, but one has to concede that a baseball frachise (any sports team, really) isn't quite the same as another business. Baseball owners are much higher profile than other businessmen with comparable revenues, so, if you're going to be an owner, you have to accept a level of public trust responsibility. As I understand, Pollard has no heirs and he's in his late 70s. What is he saving his money for, exactly? I really feel terrible for Twins fans. Sorry for the ramble.

Ivan -- David Ortiz had a slugging percentage of .500 in 400 at bats his last year in Minnesota. He was 26. If his reputation in Boston is to be believed, he's a great guy. This isn't a guy worth a one-year contract? For $1.2 million? Really?!

The Red Sox definitely got a good deal, but in retrospect, it's really not that shocking that Ortiz, at 27, had the season that he did his first year in Boston.

More on 2002 Ortiz:

2002 splits

I understand, now, what's being said about the Metrodome hurting the guy, but look at those numbers against righties in 2002. (Fun with sample sizes: ohfer 11 at bats at Fenway that year; eight strikeouts.) And, again, he was 26. There's got to be a place for a guy like that.

More links: Twins DHs last year

Honestly, how did hell did anyone discuss baseball before the Internet?

And, for the 10 billionth time: I love Theo Epstein and when I grow up I'm going to marry him.

The links didn't post. Sorry.

Twins DHs: http://sports.espn.go.com/mlbhist/teams/batting?team=min&season=2003&split=86&seasonType=2&type=reg

David Ortiz 2002 Splits:
http://sports.espn.go.com/mlbhist/players/splits?statsId=5909&type=batting&year=2002

Josh-
Pohlad has heirs. I believe his children have been collecting nice salaries from the Twins for some time now. Just another way to play the pauper when you aren't.

As for Ortiz-
He plays the easiest defensive position. He is left handed and the twins have enough lefties in their lineup already (and play a lot of lefty pitchers within the division). His platoon splits are not good. So you have a DH who should be platooned with a righthander on a team that is already crying out for a platoon righthander in right field. That really limits your flexibility.

Also, 2002 was his best year in the majors to that point (yes he was young and could be expected to improve). And the twins have budget limitations and had a reasonable chance to get approximately equal value for a lot less. They used some of the savings to help pay for Hunters contract. Hindsight after hunter had a bad season and Ortiz had a good one, says mabybe that wasn't a good decision, but at the time it seemed reasonable. Would it been the worst decision to sigh Ortiz for 1.2 mill, no. Was it a bad decision to let him walk? no. And lets note from the splits page that while his OPS on the road was .011 better from 2002 to 2003, his home OPS wen up ~.200, I think he is definitly better suited for Boston, where they use $100 bills for toilet paper (you will love it when you marry Theo :)

Of course why they haven't given Morneau more of a chance simply boggles the mind.

On the off chance that anyone is still reading this thread. Seth had something on his blog that I had forgotten.....

"Let's go back to that time and think about that situation for a minute. We all knew that Ortiz was a capable big league hitter. However, we need to remember that he was frequently hurt. We also shouldn't forget that he was arbitration eligible, so the Twins could not have signed him for the $1.5 million that the Red Sox got him for in 2003. No, they would have probably gone to arbitration with him and had to pay him about $4 million. In other words, a lot of money for a decent-hitting, injury-risk DH. "

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