Baseball Musings
Baseball Musings
March 15, 2008
Rotation Evaluation, Detroit Tigers

The series looking at team pitching rotations using the Marcel the Monkey projections continues with the Detroit Tigers. Their starters posted a 4.68 ERA in 2007, ninth in the American League.

Note that in figuring ERAs, I'm using Marcel's mIP and mER columns. The ERA listed in the spreadsheet uses the average of mER and bsrER. I wanted to avoid posting 1/2 runs in the table. Pitcher order is taken from the CBSSportsline depth chart.

Justin Verlander

Justin Verlander
Photo: Icon SMI

Marcel predictions for the Detroit Tigers top five starters for 2008.
StarterInningsERERA
Justin Verlander179753.77
Jeremy Bondernam169844.47
Dontrelle Willis185874.23
Kenny Rogers111524.22
Nate Robertson170844.45
Totals8143824.22

The Tigers rotation projects to be very consistent one through five. If indeed, all five starters post ERAs under 4.50, the Tigers will win lots of games. Their lineup is likely to score over 5.5 runs per game. The rotation also projects to a high number of innings, meaning they'll need little help from sixth and seventh starters barring injuries.

One thing I like about this staff is that project to allow just 1.0 HR per nine innings. While Verlander and Bonderman are the only two with excellent strikeout and walk numbers, all five do a good job of keeping the ball in the park.

Previous posts in this series:

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Posted by David Pinto at 04:45 PM | Team Evaluation | TrackBack (0)
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