March 11, 2008
Rotation Evaluation, New York Yankees
The series looking at team pitching rotations using the Marcel the Monkey projections continues with the New York Yankees. Their starters posted a 4.57 ERA in 2007, eighth in the American League.
Note that in figuring ERAs, I'm using Marcel's mIP and mER columns. The ERA listed in the spreadsheet uses the average of mER and bsrER. I wanted to avoid posting 1/2 runs in the table. Pitcher order is taken from the CBSSportsline depth chart. I'm actually going against the depth chart here, as they have Joba Chamberlain ahead of Ian Kennedy in the rotation, and it really looks like Joba will be in the bullpen.
Phil Hughes
Photo: Larry Goren / Icon SMI
Marcel predictions for the New York Yankees top five starters for 2008.
| Starter | Innings | ER | ERA |
|---|
| Andy Pettitte | 188 | 85 | 4.07
|
| Chien-Ming Wang | 181 | 77 | 3.83
|
| Phil Hughes | 96 | 46 | 4.31
|
| Mike Mussina | 155 | 79 | 4.59
|
| Ian Kennedy | 69 | 30 | 3.91
|
| Totals | 689 | 317 | 4.14
|
The Yankees finishing eighth in starters ERA in 2007 is impressive given their rough start to the season. It seemed in April every starter they sent to the mound was injured or got bombed.
This is a very tough rotation to call for 2008. Pettitte's and Wang's number look about right, although I suspect both will top 200 innings this year. The other three are question marks, however. Mike Mussina's strikeout rate fell off the table last year, and in three of the last four seasons posted ERAs over 4.00. The three young pitchers hold lots of promise, but there's a huge difference between promise and production. My guess is that they find four good starters among these five and Chamberlain. I'd also bet the odd man out eventually is Mussina.
Previous posts in this series:
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Dave,
I just wanted to ask you a few questions. Is Marcel the Monkey something you came up with? Two, do you trust your personal judgement more than Marcel? I'm asking because last week you said you didn't expect Mussina to stay in the rotation past April, yet Marcel seems to strongly disagree with your assessment. Care to elaborate for me?
Marcel is not my invention, which you can see if you follow the link. I sometimes use my own eyes to come to decisions. No projection system is perfect, and my own gut is not exception. But Mike is on a downward slide, and I suspect it will accelerate.
Thanks for answering. I visit your site daily.
