Baseball Musings
Baseball Musings
March 21, 2008
Rotation Evaluation, Philadelphia Phillies

The series looking at team pitching rotations using the Marcel the Monkey projections continues with the Philadelphia Phillies. Their starters posted a 4.91 ERA in 2007, twelfth in the National League.

Note that in figuring ERAs, I'm using Marcel's mIP and mER columns. The ERA listed in the spreadsheet uses the average of mER and bsrER. I wanted to avoid posting 1/2 runs in the table. Pitcher order is taken from the CBSSportsline depth chart.

Kyle Kendrick

Kyle Kendrick
Photo: Icon SMI

Marcel predictions for the Philadelphia Phillies top five starters for 2008.
StarterInningsERERA
Cole Hamels165683.71
Brett Myers94434.12
Jamie Moyer181974.82
Adam Eaton147895.45
Kyle Kendrick121533.94
Totals7083504.45

Brett Myers should pitch more than 94 innings given that he's in the rotation, which would likely lower the Phillies starters' ERA even more. One key to the Phillies success will be Kyle Kendrick. Can he keep performing at that level if the Phillies add on another thirty innings, and if he keeps his strikeout rate that low. The defense behind Kendrick was good in 2007, but the team only turned four more outs than expected. That indicates the balls in play against Kyle weren't that difficult to field in the first place.

My guess is that Adam Eaton is a stop gap until the Phillies find someone good. They'll give him a chance to earn his $8 million, but if he pitches anything like he did in 2007, they shouldn't have too much trouble finding a replacement. With their offense, if they can keep the starter's ERA around 4.50, they should win quite a few ball games.

Previous posts in this series:

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Posted by David Pinto at 02:40 PM | Team Evaluation | TrackBack (0)
Comments

are you sorting these by the ERA from last year? you missed seattle, 4.73

Posted by: skoorbo at March 21, 2008 04:27 PM

I think they're sorted by projected 2008 ERAs.

Posted by: sabernar at March 21, 2008 04:34 PM

This rotation...in that park? Mets win NL East. Fugheddaboudit!

Posted by: Leco at March 21, 2008 07:02 PM

Ah, Leco. It's a better rotation than last year with which the Phils won the NL East. How about we play the 162 games and see how it shakes out.

Posted by: Tom G, ballssticksstuff.com at March 22, 2008 09:08 PM
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