May 14, 2008
A Hard Look at the Mariners
Larry Stone says it's time for some introspection from the Mariners:
It's not quite accurate to say no one saw this coming, the monumental debacle that has marked the first quarter of the M's season.
There were, indeed, analysts who predicted this team was dangerously overrated, that it wasn't the "one piece away" that the Bedard trade suggested -- that the Mariners were, basically, a disaster waiting to happen. And they had the statistical evidence to back it up.
Kudos to them, most of whom come, it must be said, from a sabermetric bent, looking at the vast storehouse of numbers in nontraditional ways. And shame on me, who bought into the popular wisdom that last year's 88-win record plus this year's addition of Bedard equaled a championship run.
I must admit that I too saw this team as pretty good. My feeling was that predictions of the hitters demise was being overstated, but that turned out to be wrong.
The Mariners have caught rotten luck in one-run games, with a 1-9 record. Their run diff indicates they "should" be three games better than their current record. This team may well put up a better won-loss tally as the luck evens out.
That doesn't mean they'll contend for the division. Bad luck can bury you, after all, and Seattle is nine games out. The saving grace is that Oakland seems to be coming back to earth, and LAnaheim has barely outscored its opposition. Let's check back at the end of June.