Baseball Musings
Baseball Musings
February 28, 2008
Rotation Evaluation, Arizona Diamondbacks

The series looking at team pitching rotations using the Marcel the Monkey projections continues with the Arizona Diamondbacks. Their starters posted 4.23 ERA in 2007, third in the National League.

Note that in figuring ERAs, I'm using Marcel's mIP and mER columns. The ERA listed in the spreadsheet uses the average of mER and bsrER. I wanted to avoid posting 1/2 runs in the table. Pitcher order is taken from the CBSSportsline depth chart.

Dan Haren

Dan Haren
Photo: Icon SMI

Marcel predictions for the Arizona Diamondbacks top five starters for 2008.
StarterInningsERERA
Brandon Webb202753.34
Dan Haren194793.66
Randy Johnson109564.62
Doug Davis177884.47
Micah Owings134644.30
Totals8163623.99

The big story over the winter was the acquisition of Dan Haren of the Diamondbacks to give Arizona the best 1-2 punch in the majors, although at this point Santana and Pedro might give them a run for their money. Randy Johnson is a big question mark. The performance list here would not surprise me, but I also wouldn't be surprised if he posted sixty more innings than projected with a lower ERA. I suspect Micah Owings, in his second big league season would show some improvement over these numbers, especially in innings pitched. This is going to be a very good rotation.


Previous posts in this series:


Posted by David Pinto at 08:50 AM | Team Evaluation | TrackBack (0)
Comments

What's really impressive about the DBs 2007 team ERA is that they play in a pretty serious hitters' park -- probably pretty close to Philly behind Coors. Accounting for ballpark, Webb's 2007 performance was nearly as valuable as Peavy's.

Posted by: Sky at February 28, 2008 12:08 PM

Some of these projections seem really odd to me. Randy Johnson is projected to have an ERA of more than 4.6 in the NL? That seems ridiculous to me.

Posted by: Tom at February 28, 2008 12:25 PM

Unless The Big Unit has a significant comeback this year, his (probably futile) crawl towards 300 wins will be painful to watch. On the other hand, if Maddux remains effective for the Padres, he's got an outside shot of catching and passing Matty and Ol' Pete for the NL wins record in the next few years. In an era of hitting, there are still some pretty fine pitching careers being concluded right now.

Posted by: M. Scott Eiland at February 28, 2008 12:50 PM
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