June 13, 2005
Avoiding the Age Cycle
Tony Massarotti in the Boston Herald suggests the best course for the Red Sox this season may be to do nothing:
With the Red Sox now 62 games into their season, there are precisely seven weeks remaining until the annual July 31 trading deadline. That is the point by which Epstein must decide whether these Red Sox can again be championship material, whether they are worth parting with top prospects like Hanley Ramirez and Jon Papelbon.
If they are not, here is what Epstein should do:
Nothing.
``We're not afraid to trade prospects,'' Epstein said. ``But we take very seriously the impact players in our farm system can and will have on our major league team for years to come.''
After winning the championship last season, I thought it was possible for the Red Sox to let their free agents go and start building the team internally. Winning gave them the opportunity to step back and build for the long term. They could take three or four years to develop a strong, young core that could then be used to take them into contention for years in the future. But they decided to try to repeat.
And now they are in an interesting situation. They are in the race, but not one of the best teams in the race. If they make the playoffs, they can win with some good luck. There is no super team in the American League this season. So a small improvement in the Red Sox might lead to consecutive World Series victories.
But how much are they willing to spend for that? In New York, the answer would be anything. But the Yankees are now in a cycle of aging. Young players are traded for older stars. Older free agents are brought in to fill gaps. The team gets older, talent declines, injuries accumulate, and the team doesn't win. The Red Sox should avoid this. Sometimes it's better not to win this year if you believe you can win for the next decade.
So Massarotti's advice is good advice. The Red Sox no longer need to win now. They are fortunate to possess enought talent that even without moves, they may make the playoffs and win the series anyway. Theo needs to keep his eye on the long term success of the team.
At the start of the year they appeared to have a real glut of shortstops-- more than they were ever lieky to use at short, second, third and centerfield...
Part of the equation is whether they are gonig to have to adjust the configuration of the talent base anyway...
The only obvious step, or at least the obvious first step would be to find someone to do Embree's job, and that you should be able to get for a prospect without too much pain...
I think Theo has done a very good job of keeping the Sox in contention while building for the future. The building-for-the-future part was extremely obvious during the draft as the Sox made 5 of the first 50 picks. soxprospects.com nicely shows where all these picks came from. The Sox gained one 1st and two (1st) supplemental, and lost one 3rd round pick net of all the SP transactions; they also greatly improved their 2nd round positioning (76 to 57). In exchanging Renteria for Cabrera, they improved their 1st round positioning (28 to 23) and gained an additional supplemental round pick. Yet, even though these moves substantially enhanced their farm system, I think the Sox have put together a team for this year that is on par with last year's team. Renteria is no worse of an SS than Cabrera. Clement and Miller are on-track to pitch better (in terms of ERA) than Pedro and Lowe did last year (respectively). Wells has served adequately as a stop-gap starter. Losing Schilling to injury has hurt, but if he returns to last year's form, the Sox will once again be legitimate WS contenders.
The red sox will start to win and win in a way that will once again put them into first place . It is a matter of time before the Orioles start to wilt and fall into the pack. The Yankees , who knows which team will show up for each day. Again watch the red sox and they will run away with the division soon. Been a red sox fan since God was little.