January 31, 2007
Rockies Positives
Jacob Luft is changing his mind about Colorado:
But after taking a closer look at Colorado's talent corps and the moves they made this winter, I have to admit I've been selling them short. They won only 76 games last season but played five games below their run differential, so they were really more like a .500 team. The difference between a .500 team and a wild-card contender is only about five victories, and keeping Helton in the fold gives them a better chance of getting those extra five wins than if he were gone. He is coming off two injury-plagued seasons, but if he's as healthy as has been reported, then he is still the type of hitter you can build an offense around for a few years. (Baseball Prospectus' PECOTA projection system has him slated for a .303-.396-.501 batting line in 2007. This mostly explains what the Red Sox were thinking in trying to acquire him.
I have to agree. If they can repeat the pitching of 2006, an offensive surge by Helton would go a long way toward making them a winning team.
The 300/400/500 line is in Denver - Helton's equivalents are 280/375/465.
i don't know too much about colorado, but what are their chances of repeating last year's pitching without jennings?
I don't agree at all. On the small chance that the Padres, Dodgers and D-backs all slump next year, the Rockies are going to hold out hope that their $90m man helps them to the playoffs next year? Seems like a low odds gamble to me. I suspect that this deal they are passing on is the best they are going to get and when they try to trade him down the road they are going to get less talent in return and have to pay more of his salary.
I can only assume that Tom is a Red Sox fan because only a Red Sox fan would suggest that the Rockies would accept that deal. If Helton has a better season the Rox certainly will not be forced to sell low, which is what they would have been doing. If he duplicates his most recent numbers it's still hard to imagine a worse deal surfacing as a result. I'm tired of the Yankees and Red Sox trying to treat the rest of the league as their extended farm system. To hell with 'em.
Rockies may have been fortunate the Red Sox trade didn't pan out. Todd Helton still has the best lifetime average of any hitter in majors. He won't be 34 till August so he is young enough to rebound from two down years. He has never played in less than 144 games except for first season.
He had 81 RBI's last season despite missing 17 games. His on base percentage .404 and slugging percentage .476 were both way down last year but not that many players have OBP over .400. If Helton hits like he has in the past the team should do well with younger players like Matt Holliday with 34 homers and 114 RBI's returning along with Garrett Atkins who had 29 homers and 120 RBI's.
I understand "87-wins-and-a-lot-of-luck" has proven to be a winning strategy recently, but it still seems like quite a long shot. As I've been hearing a lot recently, "Hope is not a strategy."