May 19, 2006
Opposite Jays
The Toronto Blue Jays spent a lot of money on pitching in the off season, but it's their offense that's been carrying them so far. Toronto scored an 8-4 victory over the Angels last night, putting their runs per game at 5.78, second in the majors. They're also under-performing their runs created estimate, so it looks like that number underestimates their offense. Meanwhile, their pitching staff ranks ninth in the AL with a 4.77 ERA.
Take a look at the hitters so far. Vernon Wells finally figured out how to get on base, as has Shea Hillenbrand. Overbay added OBA to the team, and Glaus power. Those two moves look very good right now. Alex Rios, at age 25, hit his prime and found his power.
Will this last? Overbay and Glaus are doing what's expected. Rios is at an age where the jump is likely to happen, but I thought that was true for Adrian Beltre. Wells and Hillenbrand are most likely to revert to something less than they're doing now. They have a solid track record, and this kind of OBA is not part of it. Still, despite the pitching not being as good as the money spent, the Jays find themselves just one game out of first place.
Here's the thing about Wells and Hillenbrand... I don't think they figured out how to get on base, I think they figured out how to hit the ball where the fielder's aren't (i.e. some pretty good luck). The spread between their OBP and BA is actually smaller at this point this year than it was last year for each of them - so they're walking less, but they're just having more success on getting hits when they make contact. For Wells, this is aided by his HR total, though I think he's probably got a pretty well above average BABIP this year as well.
Hello, Dave.
I wanted to let you know that there is a new beta site following baseball bloggers called "Baseball Nooz." Like most baseball fans, we follow your blog every day. As I have a couple of other times, today I featured Baseball Musings on the main community page.
We have aggregated a lot of feeds from bloggers and news sources, all on baseball. Registered users can choose the feeds they like most and build a custom baseball news page, with headlines from their favorite sources.
Every time you post, you appear in our unique blog roll.
Anyway, keep up the good work.
Walter
P.S. The lead-in to your entry is in a daily column I do called "The Catch." http://www.baseballnooz.com/
