U.S.S. Mariner doesn't believe the Bedard trade will work out well:

It's more important this season, though. The M's have decided they're going to take a shot at the division title and are making a potentially huge long-term sacrifice for a short-term gain. It's the result of their assessment of the team's potential this season. If they're wrong, they've done themselves wrong. If they're right, the rewards for getting the team to the playoffs are huge.

That's why I look at the sims, for instance, and frown. If the trade off was Jones for a World Series, I would take it -- I think any of us would. It's not that certain, of course. But if the team's really only going to win 88 games with Bedard and miss the playoffs, or if they're going to finish much worse than that, the long-term tradeoff isn't worth it.

Teams do, however, get lucky, and the better team you put on the field, the more likely it is that positive luck will take you to the playoffs.