Baseball Musings
Baseball Musings
June 20, 2008
Are the Rays for Real?

The title is a question I've seen pop up on a number of the radio interviews I've done lately. With a sweep of the Cubs, the team with the best record in the majors, the answer is looking more and more like yes. They've out scored their opponents by 32 runs, meaning they've been playing over their heads a bit, and should have three fewer wins. A 40-32 record still makes them the wild card, however.

There were huge questions about the Rays bullpen going into the season, but right now the group is posting a 3.32 ERA. That's keeping them in games late, one reason for their 12-7 record in one-run games. They're tied for four in the AL with a 3.84 ERA, the same as the Red Sox.

The offense is still middle of the road. At 4.57 runs per game, they rank right in the middle of the American League teams at seventh. They're seventh in OBA and slugging percentage. So they have an okay offense and a good pitching staff. They're not a great team, but the offense is good enough for the pitching staff.

If you look at the aggregate offensive numbers of the fielding positions, the Rays have a good chance to improve run scoring. Leftfield, rightfield and designated hitter are three positions that could be upgraded in a trade, and DH should be the easiest of those to fill. Doesn't Adam Dunn fill that spot nicely?

Right now, the Rays are not quite as good as their record indicates, but they are legitimately a wild card team. The pitching is fine, and the places where the offense is weak are spots that are not difficult to upgrade. I don't know if they'll make the playoffs, but I expect them to contend until the end.


Posted by David Pinto at 08:26 AM | Team Evaluation | TrackBack (0)
Comments

Would be nice if the Rays could stay in the wild card race. The +32 run diff ain't great, but it's far from terrible. I have a real bad feeling that the Yankees are going to run over them, though. The Bombers' run diff is just about as good, and they're definitely improving after the veterans mailed in the early part of the season.

Picking up a bat (a player, not an actual baseball bat) would certainly help the Rays. Dunn could be available for a rental. The Griffey rumor makes no sense, though. The Rays could find a low-to-mid-.700s-OPS guy a lot cheaper.

The Trop used to be the most depressing site imaginable on Extra Innings. A few thousand people would be scattered in a funereal stadium, with only that obnoxious "happy heckler" making any noise.

Last night the big crowd was bonkers from the seventy-inning rally to the finish. Fantastic to see. The rally itself was a lot of fun, too.

Posted by: Casey Abell at June 20, 2008 09:14 AM

If their pitching stays healthy I think they'll be in it. If they finish with a 3.84 ERA they'll definitely be in it. They had Hinske batting cleanup last night which isn't real encouraging but I think they will score enough if the pitching stays good. I don't think they can win with Percival closing but he's better than what else they've got.

Posted by: Bandit at June 20, 2008 10:04 AM

Hinske is second on the team behind only Floyd in OPS, so it's not surprising to see him in the cleanup slot.

The real problem is what I just mentioned: Floyd is the team's best hitter. I figure another ten games and he's on the DL for the rest of the season.

Okay, that's a little unfair. But we're talking about a real bad injury history here. In the past five seasons (2003-2007) Floyd's only played more than 113 games once.

Posted by: Casey Abell at June 20, 2008 10:17 AM

By the way, when checking the Rays' OPS numbers, I noticed Crawford at .701. Yikes! What happened? He was never as good as the hype (career OPS .765) but this is alarming.

At least he got the slam last night.

Posted by: Casey Abell at June 20, 2008 10:50 AM

Also the Rays' Defensive Efficiency has been near the top of MLB all reason and has been a marked improvement over last year. That's certainly a contributing factor to the improved pitching.

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Posted by: adariourtut at June 20, 2008 11:52 AM

I love Hinske but I don't see him continuing to hit as well as he has. His trends are down and I'm guessing it's a lot more likely that will continue. I'm not blaming them for batting him cleanup - but if he's your power guy you're going to have a tough time keeping up with BOS and NYY.

Posted by: Bandit at June 20, 2008 02:25 PM

Hinske is playing a little over his head, .846 OPS this year vs. career .776. But he put up .840 in 2006, though he had a bad year last year at .715.

I can see him doing somewhere in the low .800s for the season. Not fantastic but useful in a generally down year for offense in the AL.

Posted by: Casey Abell at June 20, 2008 02:41 PM
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