March 07, 2008
Rotation Evaluation, Atlanta Braves
The series looking at team pitching rotations using the Marcel the Monkey projections continues with the Atlanta Braves. Their starters posted a 4.45 ERA in 2007, seventh in the National League.
Note that in figuring ERAs, I'm using Marcel's mIP and mER columns. The ERA listed in the spreadsheet uses the average of mER and bsrER. I wanted to avoid posting 1/2 runs in the table. Pitcher order is taken from the CBSSportsline depth chart.
Jair Jurrjens
Photo: Icon SMI
Marcel predictions for the Atlanta Braves top five starters for 2008.
| Starter | Innings | ER | ERA |
| John Smoltz | 186 | 74 | 3.58 |
| Tim Hudson | 194 | 87 | 4.04 |
| Tom Glavine | 180 | 87 | 4.35 |
| Chuck James | 149 | 68 | 4.11 |
| Jair Jurrjens | 75 | 37 | 4.44 |
| Totals | 784 | 353 | 4.05 |
I'll note there are differences of opinion on this rotation. The MLB.com depth chart puts Hampton in the top five and Jurrjens as the spot starter. Given Hampton's fragile medical condition the last few years, I'm guessing he starts the season in the rotation but Jurrjens gets a lot of starts also.
The Braves rotation improves not so much from adding Glavine, but from moving out high ERA pitchers like Buddy Carlyle and Kyle Davies. The yle-less rotation looks to save the Braves about 0.4 runs per nine innings pitched.
With Hampton in the rotation, it could be one of the oldest of the last fifty years. My latest SportingNews.com column explains what that's not a bad thing.
Previous posts in this series:
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