April 29, 2008
Why the Dodger Drought?
Jon Weisman notes that some people cite the Los Angeles lifestyle for the reason the Dodgers don't win any more.
I think it's because the Dodgers no longer burn out pitchers. The pitched Koufax and Drysdale as much as possible and they won, although both pitchers saw an early end to their careers. Don Sutton put up some big numbers in the early 1970s and the Dodgers won. Fernando Valenzuela? Orel Hershiser?
Give Penny and Lowe 260 innings each, and I bet the Dodgers do very well. Leaving your best pitchers on the mound as long as possible is a great strategy for winning now, but it is very short term.
I dunno, Penny pitched 208 innings last year and Lowe pitched 199. Would fifty or sixty extra innings for both turn a +9 run diff team (which is what the Dodgers were last year) into a powerhouse?
In fact, last year Lowe had an ERA of 3.88, only a smidge better than the Dodgers overall 4.20. Penny was considerably better than his team at 3.03.
So I doubt extra work for Lowe would really make a huge difference, even if he could maintain the same level of performance. Extra work for Penny might help, but it's hard to see an fifty more innings for him turning the team around completely.
What's really questionable is whether either pitcher could maintain their performance levels at significantly higher workloads. Lowe has never pitched more than 222 innings, Penny never more than 208.
You could try stretching them to 260, but I think you'd have to expect some falloff in average performance because they're just not used to the workload.
Penny and Lowe are not quite the Aces needed to make run. I would bet on a DL stint for Penny after the 2nd start on 3 days rest after his 5th CG in a row. In fact I'd bet on most pitchers cracking under that kind of use unless they are used to it. In order to win it all you need players to play above their level... be it young players who are permanently injured or veterans who will never be the same again. Hitters do this all the time but usually don't get hurt by hitting too much.
Canadians have free health care and our government isn't responsible for an unjust War... by his logic fans in Toronto should never boo or feel bad about loosing because we have it so good and we're so mellow. Eh?
Your best pitchers should be pitching more innings. As stated regarding Koufax and Drysdale in the 1960's, use them until they drop. This may sound short-sighted, but do you want to finish 3rd or 2nd year after year or win it all ?
They haven't won a World Series in 18 years. Big whoop. So why hasn't the Indians won in so long? The ocean breeze?
The Dodgers have enough income that they've rarely got a really bad team. But they haven't had anybody really all that smart running the team in a long time. Usually good enough to stay competitive, but not smart enough to push them over the top.
I can point to a number of bad deals... trading Pedro Martinez, $55M for Darren Dreifort, continuing to play people like Carlos Perez and Jeff Shaw (and Juan Pierre and Andruw Jones) simply because they paid them a lot of money... developing what looks like great young talent in the minors but seeing very few of them develop into real superstars... etc.
Uhhh.....assuming you mean the period from '63-'66 when LA won 2 WS and lost 1 - Koufax was 95-27 those 4 years. I'm not sure Lowe or Penny could put up those kinds of numbers in AAA over a 4 year period. I don't mean to disparage either guy but you're talking about a guy who was the most exceptional pitcher of any era over that period. Koufax highest ERA in those 4 seasons was 2.04. He averaged over 300K's per year. Drysdale is head and shoulders over Lowe and Penney. I think that the guy Lowe and Penney would be most comparable to would be Claude Osteen. Let's face it - the current Dodgers would be better off if Andruw Jones, Nomar and Pierre just walked away. Not gonna happen.