March 18, 2008
Rotation Evaluation, Baltimore Orioles
The series looking at team pitching rotations using the Marcel the Monkey projections continues with the Baltimore Orioles. Their starters posted a 4.86 ERA in 2007, tenth in the American League.
Note that in figuring ERAs, I'm using Marcel's mIP and mER columns. The ERA listed in the spreadsheet uses the average of mER and bsrER. I wanted to avoid posting 1/2 runs in the table. Pitcher order is taken from the CBSSportsline depth chart.
Daniel Cabrera
Photo: Icon SMI
Marcel predictions for the Baltimore Orioles top five starters for 2008.
| Starter | Innings | ER | ERA |
|---|
| Jeremy Guthrie | 139 | 64 | 4.14
|
| Daniel Cabrera | 177 | 98 | 4.98
|
| Adam Loewen | 83 | 42 | 4.55
|
| Steve Trachsel | 155 | 84 | 4.88
|
| Matt Albers | 102 | 58 | 5.12
|
| Totals | 656 | 346 | 4.75
|
With the trade of Erik Bedard, the Orioles are left with a rotation without a projected ace. Guthrie took a big step forward in 2007, but he'll need to repeat that season before the projection system gives him the benefit of the doubt. Daniel Cabrera stands as the most frustrating pitcher on the staff. He can be over powering, but his control gets him in trouble. The Orioles are working on his posture, trying to get him to stay tall on the mound rather than slouching. At age 37, it's not clear how many innings Trachsel can eat at this point. He hasn't thrown 200 innings since 2004. All in all, it's shaping up to be a poor season for the Orioles starters, unless Cabrera can pleasantly surprise people.
Previous posts in this series:
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