Baseball Musings
Baseball Musings
February 24, 2008
Rotation Evaluation, San Diego Padres

This is the start of a new series to look at team pitching rotations using the Marcel the Monkey projections. The series kicks off with the San Diego Padres. Their starters posted the lowest ERA in the majors in 2007, 4.11.

Note that in figuring ERAs, I'm using Marcel's mIP and mER columns. The ERA listed in the spreadsheet uses the average of mER and bsrER. I wanted to avoid posting 1/2 runs in the table. Pitcher order is taken from the CBSSportsline depth chart.

Justin Germano

Justin Germano
Photo: Icon SMI

Marcel predictions for the San Diego Padres top five starters for 2008.
StarterInningsERERA
Jake Peavy192703.28
Chris Young164663.62
Greg Maddux180884.40
Randy Wolf117624.77
Justin Germano123604.39
Totals7763464.01

The squad posts a very good ERA, but falls very short of the number of innings needed from a starting staff. Using six innings per start as a benchmark, teams should aim for 972 innings from their starters. The Padres managed just 935 in 2007. That means they need to find about 200 innings. Some of those might come from Chris Young having a healthy season, and Justin Germano pitching a full year. No doubt, San Diego would like to see some of those come from a healthy Mark Prior. Given the Padres great bullpen, however, they can afford to fall a bit short of the 972 mark, as they did in 2007.


Posted by David Pinto at 11:16 AM | Team Evaluation | TrackBack (0)
Comments

Padres GM has pitchers on a schedule that prohibits many of their starters from going too deep into the game. Sometimes Peavy and Young are given a longer leash, but I think Towers is overly concerned about wearing out arms. It seems that a 5-inning outing is the goal.

Posted by: Chuckles at February 29, 2008 07:26 PM
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