Baseball Musings: Standing Pat

June 29, 2007

Standing Pat

It looks like the Yankees are not going to trade the future for a win this year:

The Yankees went 1-7 on the trip, and their record remains three games under .500, at 36-39. They have slipped so suddenly, and lost so soundly, they have begun to question the wisdom of seeking major help through a trade.
More and more, to Torre and the front office, there is a sense that the season cannot be saved unless the existing players produce as expected. They are not seeking to make any significant trades, even one for first baseman Mark Teixeira of the Texas Rangers.

The Yankees are no longer interested in trading for Teixeira, who is on the disabled list and will command a better offer than they will be willing to make.

The Yankees are leery of dipping into the depth they have built in their farm system to make a trade for short-term help. That explains their reluctance to jump at Los Angeles Angels first baseman Shea Hillenbrand, who was told he would be designated for assignment on Friday.

Well, that and Hillenbrand isn't a very good ballplayer. But this is the right move for the organization. Sometimes a team needs to take a step back in order to insure long term success. So they keep the prospects today for success tomorrow. And if the current team can come out of their offensive funk, they can still figure in the wild card race.

Yesterday, my good friend Jim Storer and I were discussing what the Yankees needed to do to make the playoffs. We figure at a minimum they need to reach 92 wins, a 56-29 record the rest of the way. That's a .644 winning percentage. I checked the last 50 season using the Day by Day Database, and from July 1 to the end of the season, there are 46 teams that played .644 or better. (That's 3.7% of the team seasons in that time.) Two of those were the 2002 and 2005 Yankees. The 2005 team is the best comparison, since they were just one game over .500 at the end of June (39-38) whereas the 2002 team played great all year.

Posted by David Pinto at 08:06 AM | Team Evaluation | TrackBack (0)

Comments

Much as I hate to say it, the Yanks could sneak in. They're not nearly as bad as their W-L. Somehow they've bungled a +57 run diff into a losing record. I'd love to see that crummy luck continue all year, but I wouldn't bet on it.

I'm not sure that 92 wins would be enough, though. Cleveland holds the wild card now, and they're playing at a 96-win pace. The Yanks would also have to crawl over five teams ahead of them in the wild card race.

The division looks hopeless, even with a change of luck. Boston is playing at a 101-win pace, and I just can't see the Yankees overcoming that 11-game deficit.

So it's a very long shot, but not impossible given that the Yankess are really a pretty good team.

Posted by: Casey Abell at June 29, 2007 08:37 AM

Yanks could still win the East.

The deficit is 10 games in the loss column.

They were 14 out a few weeks ago. Their hot streak brought them to 7, and their recent slump back down to 10.

No fantasy here. Lets just imagine that they do the same thing again. Hot streak brings them to within 3, cool off back down to 6.

Then once again. If they can be within 2 or 3 in September, it is anyones race.

As I said, this isnt imagining any miracles - just speculating on them doing what they already have done. If they actually get BETTER, play up to their obvious potential - i.e maybe having a couple of hot streaks and cooling down to an acceptable level rather than a bad slump, then all of this is even more likely.

Need I remind you all that on July 1 last year the Yanks were 4 games behind Boston and won the division by 10 games? Not saying that that would necessarily happen again - but if making up 14 games over 3 months is doable, why isnt making up 10?

Obviously the Yanks would have to play better than they have been so far, but I think most everyone concedes that that should be possible.

Posted by: Tano at June 29, 2007 02:06 PM