Baseball Musings: First Base Range

November 21, 2003

First Base Range

It's time to start looking at the range of individual players. I'm starting with first basemen, since people have noticed the wide disparity between the A's and Devil Rays. This table contains data for all first basemen who were on the field for at least 50 balls in play.

Team	Expected Outs	Expected DER	Actual Outs	Actual DER	DER Difference
Bobby Kielty	4.5	0.087	6.0	0.115	0.02793
Denny Hocking	11.4	0.087	15.0	0.114	0.02711
Benji Gil	3.5	0.053	5.0	0.075	0.02185
Dave Hansen	24.7	0.084	31.0	0.105	0.02140
Mike Hessman	2.2	0.026	4.0	0.047	0.02054
John Mabry	13.5	0.080	16.0	0.095	0.01481
Ron Coomer	21.6	0.066	26.0	0.079	0.01345
Russell Branyan	20.4	0.067	24.0	0.079	0.01178
Brian Banks	10.0	0.051	12.0	0.062	0.01048
Mike Kinkade	14.0	0.071	16.0	0.081	0.00997
Justin Morneau	8.9	0.075	10.0	0.084	0.00936
Travis Lee	315.8	0.081	346.0	0.088	0.00771
Robin Ventura	41.2	0.062	46.0	0.069	0.00715
Kevin Young	32.6	0.050	37.0	0.057	0.00671
Tom Wilson	9.0	0.060	10.0	0.067	0.00664
Morgan Burkhart	1.7	0.032	2.0	0.038	0.00613
J.T. Snow	174.0	0.071	188.0	0.077	0.00569
Dave McCarty	15.4	0.127	16.0	0.132	0.00493
Doug Mientkiewicz	261.3	0.072	278.0	0.077	0.00463
Julio Franco	73.3	0.058	79.0	0.063	0.00451
Mark Teixeira	211.7	0.072	223.0	0.076	0.00384
Kevin Millar	201.0	0.078	210.0	0.081	0.00349
Derrek Lee	279.7	0.069	293.0	0.072	0.00327
David Segui	16.4	0.082	17.0	0.085	0.00297
Craig Paquette	5.7	0.054	6.0	0.057	0.00285
Lyle Overbay	156.8	0.088	161.0	0.091	0.00235
Brian Buchanan	21.0	0.045	22.0	0.048	0.00223
John Olerud	297.4	0.077	306.0	0.079	0.00222
Todd Zeile	44.9	0.083	46.0	0.086	0.00205
Jeff Conine	246.1	0.076	252.0	0.077	0.00182
Edwards Guzman	10.6	0.046	11.0	0.048	0.00182
Casey Blake	39.3	0.088	40.0	0.090	0.00160
Carlos Baerga	27.5	0.080	28.0	0.081	0.00139
Phil Nevin	65.2	0.084	66.0	0.085	0.00105
Adam Dunn	21.8	0.075	22.0	0.076	0.00086
Paul Konerko	217.1	0.077	219.0	0.077	0.00066
Mark Grace	62.5	0.083	63.0	0.084	0.00062
David Ortiz	88.3	0.074	89.0	0.075	0.00061
Sean Casey	260.8	0.065	263.0	0.065	0.00054
Todd Helton	365.2	0.081	367.0	0.082	0.00041
Tino Martinez	243.6	0.073	245.0	0.073	0.00040
Albert Pujols	84.5	0.071	85.0	0.072	0.00038
Tony Clark	86.4	0.053	87.0	0.054	0.00036
Daryle Ward	22.9	0.082	23.0	0.083	0.00024
Brian Daubach	53.9	0.064	54.0	0.064	0.00016
Joe Vitiello	20.0	0.082	20.0	0.082	-0.00003
Greg Colbrunn	23.0	0.081	23.0	0.080	-0.00014
Jason Phillips	131.7	0.061	131.0	0.061	-0.00030
Mendy Lopez	14.1	0.071	14.0	0.071	-0.00037
Ryan Klesko	186.5	0.068	185.0	0.067	-0.00055
Richie Sexson	348.6	0.076	346.0	0.076	-0.00057
Aubrey Huff	37.4	0.063	37.0	0.062	-0.00064
Scott Spiezio	173.6	0.071	172.0	0.070	-0.00066
Carlos Delgado	316.0	0.078	313.0	0.077	-0.00073
Robert Fick	169.5	0.059	167.0	0.059	-0.00086
Ken Harvey	205.5	0.079	203.0	0.078	-0.00098
Erubiel Durazo	58.1	0.069	57.0	0.068	-0.00131
Orlando Merced	10.2	0.068	10.0	0.067	-0.00136
Randall Simon	178.6	0.071	175.0	0.069	-0.00143
Travis Hafner	66.5	0.063	65.0	0.061	-0.00144
Jason Giambi	153.3	0.068	150.0	0.066	-0.00144
Jeff Bagwell	280.8	0.069	275.0	0.068	-0.00144
Ben Broussard	203.3	0.071	199.0	0.069	-0.00150
Jim Thome	288.2	0.070	282.0	0.068	-0.00151
Rafael Palmeiro	106.3	0.073	104.0	0.071	-0.00156
Hee Seop Choi	112.3	0.082	110.0	0.081	-0.00165
Matthew LeCroy	19.6	0.062	19.0	0.060	-0.00179
Andres Galarraga	102.9	0.065	100.0	0.063	-0.00184
Tomas Perez	10.2	0.091	10.0	0.089	-0.00190
Carlos Rivera	42.4	0.064	41.0	0.062	-0.00215
Matt Stairs	38.5	0.057	37.0	0.055	-0.00219
Eric Karros	132.5	0.065	128.0	0.063	-0.00222
Wil Cordero	209.0	0.067	202.0	0.065	-0.00224
Robb Quinlan	38.3	0.068	37.0	0.066	-0.00227
B.J. Surhoff	33.3	0.061	32.0	0.059	-0.00232
Raul Ibanez	41.4	0.069	40.0	0.066	-0.00234
Carlos Pena	236.8	0.065	228.0	0.062	-0.00240
Brad Wilkerson	31.0	0.076	30.0	0.074	-0.00247
Shawn Wooten	44.9	0.067	43.0	0.064	-0.00275
Jeff Liefer	29.2	0.068	28.0	0.065	-0.00276
Nick Johnson	120.6	0.072	116.0	0.069	-0.00277
Larry Barnes	10.4	0.077	10.0	0.074	-0.00298
Mike Sweeney	89.7	0.074	86.0	0.071	-0.00303
Todd Sears	24.0	0.071	23.0	0.068	-0.00309
Shane Halter	17.9	0.066	17.0	0.062	-0.00345
Brad Fullmer	33.7	0.075	32.0	0.071	-0.00382
Shea Hillenbrand	136.1	0.075	129.0	0.071	-0.00389
Matt Franco	18.2	0.058	17.0	0.054	-0.00395
Shane Spencer	9.8	0.051	9.0	0.047	-0.00403
Craig Wilson	44.2	0.063	41.0	0.058	-0.00454
Adam Riggs	18.2	0.077	17.0	0.072	-0.00494
Mo Vaughn	33.8	0.060	31.0	0.055	-0.00497
Carlos Mendez	9.6	0.088	9.0	0.083	-0.00509
Kevin Witt	52.8	0.073	49.0	0.067	-0.00523
Todd Pratt	9.7	0.078	9.0	0.072	-0.00553
Herbert Perry	4.5	0.054	4.0	0.048	-0.00574
Scott Hatteberg	231.7	0.068	211.0	0.062	-0.00612
Fred McGriff	112.3	0.061	101.0	0.055	-0.00613
Andy Abad	11.7	0.103	11.0	0.096	-0.00617
Jose Leon	7.1	0.047	6.0	0.040	-0.00708
Paul Lo Duca	32.4	0.068	29.0	0.061	-0.00720
Jay Bell	5.0	0.047	4.0	0.038	-0.00945
Pedro Feliz	20.7	0.076	18.0	0.066	-0.00989
Jay Gibbons	18.2	0.059	15.0	0.049	-0.01037
Frank Thomas	40.6	0.068	34.0	0.057	-0.01108
Frank Catalanotto	8.9	0.119	8.0	0.107	-0.01190
Jolbert Cabrera	8.1	0.088	7.0	0.075	-0.01224
Graham Koonce	4.7	0.082	4.0	0.069	-0.01255
Michael Cuddyer	6.9	0.075	5.0	0.055	-0.02052
Josh Phelps	13.0	0.068	9.0	0.047	-0.02088

As you can see, Travis Lee is very good, and Scott Hatteberg isn't. Let's see if we can find where the difference is. Let's break the two of them down by batted ball type.

Scott Hatteberg
Batted Ball Type	Expected Outs	Expected DER	Actual Outs	Actual DER	DER Difference
B	10.2	0.108	9.0	0.096	-0.01241
G	147.7	0.091	136.0	0.084	-0.00723
L	10.5	0.018	6.0	0.010	-0.00780
P	63.4	0.179	60.0	0.169	-0.00956

Travis Lee
Batted Ball Type	Expected Outs	Expected DER	Actual Outs	Actual DER	DER Difference
B	9.0	0.148	12.0	0.197	0.04918
G	205.4	0.125	213.0	0.129	0.00461
L	16.4	0.022	18.0	0.024	0.00213
P	85.0	0.207	103.0	0.251	0.04387

As you can see, Hatteberg is poor at on every batted ball type. Travis Lee is particularly good at catching pop ups. Let's look at the two of them by direction. Direction X represents the first base line, C represents the third base line, M is up the middle.

Scott Hatteberg
Batted Ball Type	Expected Outs	Expected DER	Actual Outs	Actual DER	DER Difference
M	0.7	0.004	1.0	0.006	0.00185
Q	1.4	0.011	2.0	0.016	0.00519
S	2.0	0.017	2.0	0.017	-0.00000
T	1.2	0.009	1.0	0.008	-0.00172
U	14.1	0.100	6.0	0.043	-0.05738
V	42.4	0.289	36.0	0.245	-0.04385
W	67.6	0.501	59.0	0.437	-0.06400
X	61.2	0.557	65.0	0.591	0.03416
Y	24.3	0.695	24.0	0.686	-0.00944
Z	16.3	0.711	15.0	0.652	-0.05870

Travis Lee
Batted Ball Type	Expected Outs	Expected DER	Actual Outs	Actual DER	DER Difference
D	1.0	0.004	1.0	0.004	-0.00000
M	0.5	0.002	1.0	0.004	0.00212
N	1.4	0.007	3.0	0.015	0.00769
O	0.6	0.004	2.0	0.013	0.00921
R	0.8	0.005	1.0	0.006	0.00131
S	2.2	0.014	3.0	0.018	0.00464
T	3.7	0.019	3.0	0.015	-0.00347
U	13.9	0.113	16.0	0.130	0.01713
V	48.9	0.379	57.0	0.442	0.06298
W	103.2	0.596	108.0	0.624	0.02795
X	88.5	0.575	96.0	0.623	0.04844
Y	29.6	0.672	32.0	0.727	0.05534
Z	21.3	0.711	23.0	0.767	0.05557

As you can see, unless you hit the ball right at Hatteberg, he has trouble fielding it. Meanwhile Lee gets to balls all over the infield. More to come.

Posted by David Pinto at 09:23 PM | Defense | TrackBack (0)