Baseball Musings: Probabilistic Model of Range, First Basemen

February 08, 2005

Probabilistic Model of Range, First Basemen

I would normally run left fielders here, being the next position in the defensive spectrum, but I've fallen behind and have a request for first basemen.

Probabilistic Model of Range, First Basemen 2004, 1000 balls in play.
Player	InPlay	Actual Outs	Predicted Outs	DER	Predicted DER	Difference
Jeff Conine	1431	141	105.62	0.099	0.074	0.02472
Kevin Millar	1504	124	97.13	0.082	0.065	0.01787
Darin Erstad	3159	252	213.80	0.080	0.068	0.01209
Todd Zeile	1103	87	74.69	0.079	0.068	0.01116
Nick Johnson	1830	143	123.10	0.078	0.067	0.01087
Ben Broussard	3119	198	176.50	0.063	0.057	0.00689
Tino Martinez	2978	226	206.94	0.076	0.069	0.00640
Brad Wilkerson	2169	185	171.80	0.085	0.079	0.00609
J.T. Snow	2565	178	162.93	0.069	0.064	0.00588
Hee Seop Choi	2572	184	170.90	0.072	0.066	0.00509
Albert Pujols	4025	322	302.41	0.080	0.075	0.00487
Pedro Feliz	1573	115	109.18	0.073	0.069	0.00370
Mark Teixeira	3881	336	321.79	0.087	0.083	0.00366
Todd Helton	4250	312	296.65	0.073	0.070	0.00361
Tony Clark	1917	141	134.49	0.074	0.070	0.00339
Derrek Lee	4025	302	290.34	0.075	0.072	0.00290
Carlos Delgado	3257	266	257.25	0.082	0.079	0.00269
Jason Giambi	1187	75	71.83	0.063	0.061	0.00267
Julio Franco	1957	131	126.03	0.067	0.064	0.00254
Doug Mientkiewicz	2919	223	215.75	0.076	0.074	0.00248
Randall Simon	1016	72	69.67	0.071	0.069	0.00229
Jim Thome	3580	239	230.93	0.067	0.065	0.00225
John Olerud	3197	215	208.68	0.067	0.065	0.00198
Daryle Ward	1740	104	100.62	0.060	0.058	0.00194
Craig A Wilson	1450	86	83.21	0.059	0.057	0.00193
Shea Hillenbrand	3352	241	234.94	0.072	0.070	0.00181
Adam LaRoche	2198	132	128.07	0.060	0.058	0.00179
Carlos Pena	3632	217	210.61	0.060	0.058	0.00176
Lyle Overbay	4158	304	301.39	0.073	0.072	0.00063
Paul Konerko	3634	223	221.40	0.061	0.061	0.00044
Ken Harvey	2045	132	131.89	0.065	0.064	0.00005
Mike Sweeney	1572	105	105.75	0.067	0.067	-0.00048
Jeff Bagwell	3798	282	285.44	0.074	0.075	-0.00091
Phil Nevin	3675	251	254.42	0.068	0.069	-0.00093
Sean Casey	3974	257	263.71	0.065	0.066	-0.00169
Justin Morneau	1619	97	100.13	0.060	0.062	-0.00193
Scott Hatteberg	3874	257	266.21	0.066	0.069	-0.00238
Rafael Palmeiro	3497	227	237.20	0.065	0.068	-0.00292
Shawn Green	2794	175	185.88	0.063	0.067	-0.00389
Mike Piazza	1636	87	96.28	0.053	0.059	-0.00567

I'm not surprised that a good centerfielder also fields well at first base, although my gut feeling is the Angels needed his glove in center more than at first. Other converts didn't work out so well as Green and Piazza finished at the bottom of the list. Green also did poorly when he was in right field. If you're going to have poor range, better at first than in right.

A big surprise on the list will be the relative positions of Kevin Millar and Doug Mientkiewicz. It's worth breaking those two down further. I'll do that in the next post.

Posted by David Pinto at 10:14 AM | Defense | TrackBack (1)

Comments

It's a good thing Palmiero got his Gold Glove when he did. If they waited for him to play 1B again he NEVER would have gotten it.

On another note: Giambi better than Olerud? Todd Zeile better than just about everyone? Same with Millar?

Posted by: sabernar at February 8, 2005 10:47 AM

Kevin Millar is a defensive whiz at two positions! And here we thought his glove was a liability.

Posted by: steve at February 8, 2005 11:46 AM

Jim Thome's ranking is a bit of a head scratcher too.

Posted by: Tom G at February 8, 2005 12:11 PM

This could be an example where our eyes lie to us.
A slick fielder, who always looks in control and moves elegantly, may impress you. But is he really reaching as many balls? It's hard to say, because he looks good doing it. (This is also known as the Derek Jeter Theory.)

Millar isn't exactly... elegant in the field, but he catches what he reaches. And maybe he reaches more than you might think. (Or, as noted, the Red Sox are better at positioning players, which you'd think would show up for all of their fielders, right?)

Posted by: steve at February 8, 2005 03:16 PM

Or this could be an example showing that just because someone used sabermetrics the results should not be accepted as the final word.

Posted by: Matt at February 9, 2005 08:49 AM

Please let me know the name of the first baseman for the St. Louis Cards around 1949-50

Thank you

Posted by: Mary Ann Linhoff at July 17, 2006 09:46 PM