Baseball Musings
Baseball Musings
November 09, 2003
Model Comparisons

The following table is presented to summarize the previous posts using different parameters to calculate range (batted ball, with stadium, with pitcher, with batter, both batter and pitcher). It compares the difference between actual DER and expected DER:

TeamBatted Ball ParametersBatted Ball with StadiumBatted Ball with Pitcher's HandBatted Ball with Batter's SideWith both Pitcher's Hand and Batter's Side
Angels 0.00877 0.00360 0.00824 0.00778 0.00727
Astros 0.00480 0.00514 0.00438 0.00485 0.00442
Athletics -0.00302 -0.00250 -0.00141 -0.00312 -0.00160
Blue Jays -0.00629 0.00032 -0.00638 -0.00535 -0.00544
Braves 0.00717 0.00881 0.00705 0.00681 0.00694
Brewers 0.00404 -0.00519 0.00351 0.00170 0.00193
Cardinals 0.01240 0.00163 0.01219 0.01108 0.01062
Cubs 0.00136 0.00234 0.00043 0.00125 0.00014
Devil Rays -0.00213 0.00665 -0.00219 -0.00182 -0.00222
Diamondbacks -0.01476 -0.00343 -0.01483 -0.01394 -0.01437
Dodgers 0.00753 -0.00470 0.00823 0.00665 0.00717
Expos 0.00684 0.00100 0.00651 0.00721 0.00693
Giants -0.00335 0.00599 -0.00303 -0.00276 -0.00253
Indians -0.00121 0.00247 -0.00023 -0.00192 -0.00042
Mariners 0.01574 0.01135 0.01575 0.01771 0.01778
Marlins 0.00124 -0.00045 0.00067 -0.00029 -0.00101
Mets -0.00604 -0.00855 -0.00654 -0.00703 -0.00785
Orioles -0.00086 -0.00465 -0.00057 0.00001 0.00033
Padres 0.00788 -0.00323 0.00778 0.00817 0.00766
Phillies 0.01350 -0.00022 0.01332 0.01337 0.01303
Pirates -0.01363 -0.00163 -0.01335 -0.01280 -0.01251
Rangers -0.01275 -0.00152 -0.01280 -0.01216 -0.01269
Red Sox -0.01678 -0.00129 -0.01720 -0.01585 -0.01620
Reds 0.00610 -0.00192 0.00607 0.00603 0.00621
Rockies 0.00008 -0.00284 -0.00048 0.00129 0.00091
Royals 0.00205 0.00027 0.00239 0.00252 0.00280
Tigers -0.00575 -0.01006 -0.00561 -0.00608 -0.00582
Twins -0.00375 0.01121 -0.00352 -0.00428 -0.00382
White Sox 0.00929 0.00259 0.00948 0.00911 0.00936
Yankees -0.01599 -0.01013 -0.01545 -0.01564 -0.01469

While this table shows that parks in general have a much bigger effect than handedness, batting or pitching side really matters for certain teams. So in my final model, I'm going to build in everything. So we're going to look at the probability of an out given the batted ball type, direction and speed, the stadium, the handedness of the pitcher and the handedness of the batter.


Posted by David Pinto at 11:06 AM | Defense | TrackBack (0)