Baseball Musings: Probabilistic Model of Range, Shortstops, 2006

December 07, 2006

Probabilistic Model of Range, Shortstops, 2006

Here's the outs table for the shortstops.

Probabilistic Model of Range, Shortstops. Model is Based on 2006 Data Only. Minimum 1000 Balls in Play. Uses Distance for Fly Balls.
Player	InPlay	Actual Outs	Predicted Outs	Out Difference	Out Ratio
Bill Hall	3311	404	377.82	26.18	106.93
Adam Everett	3801	500	467.66	32.34	106.92
Juan Castro	1743	205	192.64	12.36	106.42
Khalil Greene	3007	352	332.02	19.98	106.02
Julio Lugo	2103	253	242.98	10.02	104.13
Craig Counsell	2274	310	297.95	12.05	104.04
Jason A Bartlett	2570	348	334.94	13.06	103.90
Ben T Zobrist	1395	173	166.54	6.46	103.88
Alex Cora	1338	163	157.05	5.95	103.79
Carlos Guillen	3808	465	449.34	15.66	103.49
Clint Barmes	3411	404	392.62	11.38	102.90
Omar Vizquel	3974	441	429.14	11.86	102.76
Jhonny Peralta	4086	533	522.47	10.53	102.01
Yuniesky Betancourt	4225	501	491.93	9.07	101.84
Alex Gonzalez	2991	350	343.78	6.22	101.81
John McDonald	2024	237	232.99	4.01	101.72
Rafael Furcal	4257	538	529.11	8.89	101.68
Edgar Renteria	3958	446	441.08	4.92	101.12
Juan Uribe	3553	429	424.93	4.07	100.96
David Eckstein	3222	385	381.39	3.61	100.95
Jack Wilson	3485	454	451.20	2.80	100.62
Hanley Ramirez	4016	466	465.15	0.85	100.18
Orlando Cabrera	3903	433	434.02	-1.02	99.77
Michael Young	4307	536	538.40	-2.40	99.55
Ronny Cedeno	3258	398	400.82	-2.82	99.30
Bobby Crosby	2595	307	311.18	-4.18	98.66
Jose Reyes	3887	443	449.24	-6.24	98.61
Geoff Blum	1168	149	151.32	-2.32	98.47
Angel Berroa	3670	412	418.66	-6.66	98.41
Royce Clayton	3338	400	407.20	-7.20	98.23
Miguel Tejada	4027	465	475.33	-10.33	97.83
Jimmy Rollins	4206	499	510.75	-11.75	97.70
Derek Jeter	4009	450	468.35	-18.35	96.08
Stephen Drew	1475	161	168.09	-7.09	95.78
Aaron W Hill	1273	140	148.94	-8.94	94.00
Felipe Lopez	4245	438	472.63	-34.63	92.67
Marco Scutaro	1773	207	224.85	-17.85	92.06

Posted by David Pinto at 07:27 PM | Probabilistic Model of Range | TrackBack (0)

Comments

Another reason Boston fans shouldn't be panicking over Julio Lugo...

Posted by: the other josh at December 7, 2006 07:30 PM

how the heck are the brewers even thinking about getting rid of bill hall

Posted by: jake at December 7, 2006 08:10 PM

They are?

Posted by: the other josh at December 7, 2006 08:15 PM

thought i read that quite frequently earlier in the hot stove...especially after this site ranked hall pretty good defensively a couple weeks ago

Posted by: jake at December 7, 2006 10:00 PM

i think they're putting hall in LF.
on another note, i'm pretty sure dewan's +/- system has hanley as the worst shortstop in the majors, and i think uzr has peralta as being terrible. am i remembering incorrectly? whattup?

Posted by: amos at December 7, 2006 10:28 PM

I knew Jeter was an overrated defender, but...wow.

Posted by: Luke at December 8, 2006 01:27 AM

Wait, what was the first reason we Boston psychos shouldn't be panicking over Julio Lugo?

I gotta say, I find it hard to trust any measurement that places Lugo above Alex Gonzalez. I don't think anyone would seriously say he's better defensively than A-Gon.

Congrats on your nomination, David. I love this site.

Posted by: Alex at December 8, 2006 09:30 AM

It's so funny to hear the afternoon host on the sports radio station in Boston -WEEI - continually rip the Lugo signing. He has asked over and over why Bill James couldn't come up with some statistic to show how valuable Gonzalez's defense is. Looks like the statistic has a much different outcome than the guys ripping Theo for signing Lugo would like to see.

Posted by: Tom at December 8, 2006 10:06 AM

...past a diving Jeter...

Posted by: Mark at December 8, 2006 04:52 PM

re: jimmy rollins

I am shocked and dismayed to see that Jimmy Rollins is below league average in range at SS.

This, combined with the Phils problems at 3B, is likely why they have a lower than average converstion of ground balls into outs overall.

I though Rollins was a defensive plus, but it turns out he's a liability of sorts. nonetheless, his offensive contributions are huge, so no one is going to move him. Like Jeter and Tejada, whose defensive ratings he shares, Rollins has a big bat and big speed.

--art kyriazis, philly

Posted by: art kyriazis at December 11, 2006 01:32 PM

How can Jhonny Peralta's 2006 be considered "above average" defensively ESPECIALLY in terms of "range?" The man could neither see nor move. I have seen the man play shortstop, and as much as I WANT him to be above-average defensively, my eyes object to this characterization in pretty strong terms...

Posted by: Steve Buffum at March 1, 2007 11:31 AM