Baseball Musings: Probabilistic Range, Second Base

December 05, 2003

Probabilistic Range, Second Base

Here's the chart for all major league 2nd basemen who were on the field for 200 balls in play:

Second Basemen
Team	Expected Outs	Expected DER	Actual Outs	Actual DER	DER Difference
Nick Punto	32.9	0.126	38.0	0.146	0.01938
Mike Bordick	44.3	0.147	49.0	0.163	0.01555
Aaron Boone	60.8	0.107	68.0	0.120	0.01262
Willie Harris	26.6	0.126	29.0	0.137	0.01125
Brian Roberts	329.0	0.112	358.0	0.122	0.00987
Matt Kata	142.5	0.120	154.0	0.130	0.00970
Joe McEwing	119.3	0.108	129.0	0.117	0.00873
Mark Ellis	525.4	0.133	556.0	0.141	0.00778
Brent Butler	53.2	0.108	57.0	0.116	0.00771
Pablo Ozuna	32.2	0.139	34.0	0.147	0.00767
Shane Halter	71.8	0.112	76.0	0.119	0.00663
Jolbert Cabrera	108.8	0.115	115.0	0.122	0.00656
Adam Kennedy	435.4	0.126	457.0	0.132	0.00627
Brandon Phillips	328.1	0.112	346.0	0.118	0.00612
Henry Mateo	80.0	0.119	84.0	0.125	0.00597
Zach Sorensen	21.7	0.100	23.0	0.106	0.00574
Mark Bellhorn	46.8	0.119	49.0	0.125	0.00570
Pokey Reese	124.2	0.147	129.0	0.153	0.00565
Damian Jackson	58.5	0.131	61.0	0.136	0.00563
Abraham O. Nunez	203.1	0.122	212.0	0.127	0.00535
Ray Olmedo	39.2	0.101	41.0	0.105	0.00463
Jeff Reboulet	202.5	0.111	211.0	0.115	0.00462
Marcus Giles	499.9	0.132	515.0	0.136	0.00400
Luis Castillo	460.8	0.118	476.0	0.121	0.00387
Brent Abernathy	34.1	0.134	35.0	0.137	0.00370
Jose Vizcaino	50.5	0.125	52.0	0.128	0.00359
Orlando Hudson	507.6	0.139	520.0	0.142	0.00339
Neifi Perez	135.4	0.120	139.0	0.123	0.00320
Mark Grudzielanek	332.8	0.120	341.0	0.123	0.00298
Placido Polanco	328.4	0.125	336.0	0.128	0.00289
Geoff Blum	55.7	0.116	57.0	0.118	0.00272
Miguel Cairo	104.5	0.112	107.0	0.115	0.00270
Juan Castro	156.4	0.115	160.0	0.118	0.00268
Dave Berg	64.6	0.122	66.0	0.125	0.00267
Rob Mackowiak	33.3	0.123	34.0	0.126	0.00251
Warren Morris	282.5	0.112	288.0	0.114	0.00219
Mark Loretta	447.9	0.118	455.0	0.120	0.00187
Desi Relaford	269.6	0.114	273.0	0.116	0.00144
Chris Gomez	56.4	0.112	57.0	0.114	0.00128
Frank Menechino	41.6	0.106	42.0	0.107	0.00102
Mendy Lopez	22.8	0.088	23.0	0.089	0.00087
Benji Gil	69.7	0.130	70.0	0.130	0.00061
Bo Hart	232.2	0.123	233.0	0.124	0.00042
Juan Uribe	44.9	0.151	45.0	0.152	0.00022
Tony Graffanino	81.1	0.140	81.0	0.139	-0.00010
Tony Womack	45.1	0.114	45.0	0.114	-0.00025
Junior Spivey	291.9	0.125	291.0	0.125	-0.00038
Mark DeRosa	85.5	0.121	85.0	0.121	-0.00076
Keith Ginter	138.1	0.099	137.0	0.099	-0.00078
Alfonso Soriano	508.7	0.119	505.0	0.119	-0.00086
Tomas Perez	67.6	0.130	67.0	0.129	-0.00118
Jerry Hairston Jr.	151.6	0.115	150.0	0.114	-0.00123
Michael Young	503.5	0.114	496.0	0.113	-0.00169
Alex Cora	378.8	0.124	373.0	0.122	-0.00192
Marlon Anderson	376.5	0.114	370.0	0.112	-0.00195
Enrique Wilson	24.5	0.104	24.0	0.102	-0.00196
Bill Hall	54.9	0.127	54.0	0.125	-0.00203
Eric Young	355.3	0.116	349.0	0.114	-0.00204
John McDonald	98.7	0.118	97.0	0.116	-0.00205
Ray Durham	345.2	0.132	339.0	0.130	-0.00236
Jeff Kent	391.8	0.122	384.0	0.119	-0.00241
D'Angelo Jimenez	422.7	0.112	413.0	0.109	-0.00255
Jose Vidro	424.6	0.119	415.0	0.117	-0.00271
Carlos Febles	185.8	0.115	181.0	0.112	-0.00297
Chase Utley	109.0	0.118	106.0	0.115	-0.00329
Terry Shumpert	30.9	0.115	30.0	0.112	-0.00344
Bret Boone	469.2	0.113	454.0	0.110	-0.00367
Ryan Freel	23.0	0.095	22.0	0.091	-0.00398
Todd Walker	454.8	0.125	439.0	0.121	-0.00435
Luis Rivas	400.4	0.111	382.0	0.106	-0.00512
Carlos Baerga	42.7	0.134	41.0	0.129	-0.00540
Angel Santos	70.3	0.122	67.0	0.116	-0.00575
Fernando Vina	184.2	0.113	174.0	0.106	-0.00623
Antonio Perez	73.3	0.093	68.0	0.087	-0.00679
Roberto Alomar	399.2	0.113	374.0	0.106	-0.00713
Denny Hocking	51.2	0.116	48.0	0.109	-0.00735
Ramon Santiago	180.0	0.121	169.0	0.114	-0.00742
Julius Matos	21.6	0.103	20.0	0.095	-0.00756
Ronnie Belliard	353.0	0.118	326.0	0.109	-0.00906
Chone Figgins	35.4	0.111	32.0	0.100	-0.01051
Marco Scutaro	65.6	0.110	59.0	0.099	-0.01100
Keith Lockhart	44.2	0.117	40.0	0.106	-0.01108
Danny Garcia	51.1	0.118	46.0	0.106	-0.01172
Bill Mueller	24.3	0.090	21.0	0.078	-0.01221
Ramon Martinez	98.6	0.115	88.0	0.102	-0.01232
Jay Bell	29.0	0.102	25.0	0.088	-0.01403
Andy Fox	29.2	0.103	25.0	0.088	-0.01480
Rey Sanchez	22.6	0.100	19.0	0.084	-0.01608

Looks like the Orioles have great defense at 2nd base in Brian Roberts, and Mark Ellis appears to be making up for some of the defensive shortcomings of Scott Hatteberg.

I'm not surprised to see Roberto Alomar near the bottom. For years, zone ratings at STATS showed him very low, despite the how good he looked in the field. It also looks like Bret Boone's gold glove wasn't really deserved.

Posted by David Pinto at 05:40 PM | Defense | TrackBack (0)

Comments

Soriano is a hair worse than average, and barely a hair at that (-0.00086). Who would have thought? I thought he was worse than that. But couple him with Jeter (-0.00386) and you have yourself a bad infield up the middle. Help!

Posted by: sabernar at December 5, 2003 06:31 PM

It would be interesting to see middle-infielder combos. Can you do that David? Rate them on the pair of players?

Posted by: sabernar at December 5, 2003 06:31 PM

Well, at leas this list shows that there was some reason for Grady Little to sub in Damian Jackson for Todd Walker in the late innings.

Except for that whole "hitting" part of baseball.

Posted by: steve at December 5, 2003 08:15 PM

it's nice to see that if the Twins have to trade a high salary, they at least get a pretty good utility infielder (with the glove) back.

Posted by: Ivan at December 5, 2003 08:44 PM

What is the formula for this stat, though? If this statistic is partially calculated using range factor, doesn't it mean that players get screwed if their team's pitching staff has an abnormal number of flyball or groundball pitchers? For instance, the 2003 Mariners pitching staff was made up of nearly all heavy flyball pitchers. As a result, all of the Mariner outfielders had outrageously high range factors, while all of the Mariner infielders had range factors that were very low. Another example is the 2003 A's - very much a groundball pitching staff, in fact extremely so, and as a result, the infielder's range factors are abnormally high, and their outfielder's range factors are very, very low. Range factor is (PO+A) divided by 9 innings. Putouts plus assists is very nearly equal to total chances (the only difference being number of errors). So a player could have a much lower rating just because not that many balls got hit in his direction. If this stat isn't based on range factor, then my point is moot. :) But if it is, I don't know if I can take it very seriously. I'm sure normally, with a pitching staff fairly evenly mixed between flyball and groundball pitchers, it would come out even. But there are exceptions! Just an example of how no defensive stat can truly tell the whole story, I guess!

Posted by: Jen at December 5, 2003 09:09 PM

i'm not surprised to see jeff kent below average. i've watched him play and he always seemed mediocre to me. i was, however, really surprised to see bret boone ranking below kent. both the uzr and range factor rate him more highly. i wonder why your system did not.

Posted by: lisa g at December 5, 2003 09:31 PM

Infielder combos should be doable.

Posted by: David Pinto at December 6, 2003 05:59 AM