January 29, 2005
Probabilistic Model of Range
I've been working on the software for this during the week, and have acquired updated ball in play data as well. I'm now ready to go full bore with the study.
First, however, an update of a couple of tables shown previously. The good people at Baseball Info Solutions have been busy recording batted ball information this winter to complete the database, and that new data is included in the following table. This should replace the table found here.
2004 Probabilistic Model of Range, Totals for Teams
| Team | InPlay | Actual Outs | Predicted Outs | DER | Predicted DER | Difference
|
|---|
| Cardinals | 4378 | 3106 | 3092.01 | 0.709 | 0.706 | 0.00320 |
| Cubs | 4119 | 2869 | 2855.86 | 0.697 | 0.693 | 0.00319 |
| Red Sox | 4387 | 3040 | 3027.90 | 0.693 | 0.690 | 0.00276 |
| White Sox | 4370 | 3034 | 3025.58 | 0.694 | 0.692 | 0.00193 |
| Phillies | 4440 | 3120 | 3118.53 | 0.703 | 0.702 | 0.00033 |
| Devil Rays | 4459 | 3119 | 3121.25 | 0.699 | 0.700 | -0.00050 |
| Dodgers | 4324 | 3084 | 3086.19 | 0.713 | 0.714 | -0.00051 |
| Marlins | 4257 | 2987 | 2991.48 | 0.702 | 0.703 | -0.00105 |
| Giants | 4541 | 3149 | 3156.63 | 0.693 | 0.695 | -0.00168 |
| Mets | 4552 | 3165 | 3174.40 | 0.695 | 0.697 | -0.00206 |
| Blue Jays | 4471 | 3091 | 3100.88 | 0.691 | 0.694 | -0.00221 |
| Padres | 4396 | 3044 | 3058.60 | 0.692 | 0.696 | -0.00332 |
| Braves | 4488 | 3087 | 3102.55 | 0.688 | 0.691 | -0.00346 |
| Rangers | 4549 | 3124 | 3141.88 | 0.687 | 0.691 | -0.00393 |
| Diamondbacks | 4315 | 2941 | 2961.05 | 0.682 | 0.686 | -0.00465 |
| Astros | 4148 | 2842 | 2863.53 | 0.685 | 0.690 | -0.00519 |
| Indians | 4486 | 3065 | 3090.32 | 0.683 | 0.689 | -0.00564 |
| Athletics | 4489 | 3123 | 3150.72 | 0.696 | 0.702 | -0.00618 |
| Expos | 4414 | 3061 | 3095.05 | 0.693 | 0.701 | -0.00771 |
| Rockies | 4614 | 3136 | 3176.20 | 0.680 | 0.688 | -0.00871 |
| Brewers | 4410 | 3045 | 3087.09 | 0.690 | 0.700 | -0.00954 |
| Mariners | 4488 | 3140 | 3187.45 | 0.700 | 0.710 | -0.01057 |
| Twins | 4486 | 3082 | 3135.59 | 0.687 | 0.699 | -0.01195 |
| Reds | 4584 | 3151 | 3213.64 | 0.687 | 0.701 | -0.01367 |
| Pirates | 4317 | 2956 | 3017.18 | 0.685 | 0.699 | -0.01417 |
| Orioles | 4451 | 3055 | 3124.15 | 0.686 | 0.702 | -0.01554 |
| Yankees | 4492 | 3085 | 3164.12 | 0.687 | 0.704 | -0.01761 |
| Tigers | 4521 | 3090 | 3172.22 | 0.683 | 0.702 | -0.01819 |
| Royals | 4647 | 3131 | 3227.78 | 0.674 | 0.695 | -0.02083 |
| Angels | 4359 | 2990 | 3081.10 | 0.686 | 0.707 | -0.02090 |
The order of team changes a bit, but not much. It still looks like a poor defensive season overall.
The other chart to update had to do with performance behind pitchers, and that's updated in the extended entry.
Defense Behind Pitchers, 2004, ranked by difference between expected outs and actual outs.
| Pitcher | Team | InPlay | Actual Outs | Predicted Outs | DER | Predicted DER | Difference
|
|---|
| Curt Schilling | Bos | 641 | 454 | 427.90 | 0.708 | 0.668 | 0.04071 |
| Scott Elarton | Cle | 346 | 258 | 248.44 | 0.746 | 0.718 | 0.02763 |
| Zach Day | Mon | 372 | 266 | 256.16 | 0.715 | 0.689 | 0.02646 |
| Zack Z Greinke | KC | 438 | 317 | 305.84 | 0.724 | 0.698 | 0.02549 |
| Al Leiter | NYM | 508 | 377 | 364.14 | 0.742 | 0.717 | 0.02532 |
| Rob Bell | TB | 409 | 295 | 284.79 | 0.721 | 0.696 | 0.02495 |
| C.C. Sabathia | Cle | 547 | 388 | 374.90 | 0.709 | 0.685 | 0.02395 |
| Greg Maddux | ChC | 642 | 455 | 440.39 | 0.709 | 0.686 | 0.02276 |
| Glendon Rusch | ChC | 407 | 282 | 272.76 | 0.693 | 0.670 | 0.02271 |
| Brett Tomko | SF | 634 | 446 | 432.04 | 0.703 | 0.681 | 0.02202 |
| Jerome Williams | SF | 404 | 290 | 282.59 | 0.718 | 0.699 | 0.01834 |
| Carl Pavano | Fla | 693 | 490 | 477.34 | 0.707 | 0.689 | 0.01826 |
| Randy Johnson | Ari | 601 | 431 | 420.63 | 0.717 | 0.700 | 0.01725 |
| Kevin Brown | NYY | 416 | 295 | 288.02 | 0.709 | 0.692 | 0.01679 |
| Ted Lilly | Tor | 556 | 406 | 396.88 | 0.730 | 0.714 | 0.01640 |
| Randy Wolf | Phi | 434 | 305 | 297.89 | 0.703 | 0.686 | 0.01637 |
| A.J. Burnett | Fla | 326 | 231 | 225.69 | 0.709 | 0.692 | 0.01629 |
| Jason Schmidt | SF | 557 | 407 | 398.32 | 0.731 | 0.715 | 0.01558 |
| Victor Zambrano | TB | 351 | 251 | 245.92 | 0.715 | 0.701 | 0.01448 |
| Mark Buehrle | CWS | 758 | 520 | 509.04 | 0.686 | 0.672 | 0.01446 |
| Jeff Suppan | StL | 603 | 426 | 417.80 | 0.706 | 0.693 | 0.01360 |
| Kenny Rogers | Tex | 707 | 472 | 462.41 | 0.668 | 0.654 | 0.01357 |
| Jake Westbrook | Cle | 694 | 489 | 479.68 | 0.705 | 0.691 | 0.01343 |
| Kazuhisa Ishii | LA | 525 | 387 | 380.71 | 0.737 | 0.725 | 0.01197 |
| Tom Glavine | NYM | 705 | 502 | 493.92 | 0.712 | 0.701 | 0.01145 |
| Roger Clemens | Hou | 559 | 399 | 392.79 | 0.714 | 0.703 | 0.01111 |
| Jon Garland | CWS | 694 | 497 | 489.46 | 0.716 | 0.705 | 0.01087 |
| Chris Carpenter | StL | 521 | 369 | 363.36 | 0.708 | 0.697 | 0.01083 |
| Ryan Vogelsong | Pit | 417 | 289 | 284.73 | 0.693 | 0.683 | 0.01024 |
| Mike Wood | KC | 327 | 228 | 225.00 | 0.697 | 0.688 | 0.00918 |
| Odalis Perez | LA | 585 | 429 | 423.68 | 0.733 | 0.724 | 0.00910 |
| Jae Seo | NYM | 389 | 269 | 265.53 | 0.692 | 0.683 | 0.00891 |
| Brian Lawrence | SD | 659 | 451 | 445.55 | 0.684 | 0.676 | 0.00827 |
| Jimmy Gobble | KC | 519 | 377 | 373.10 | 0.726 | 0.719 | 0.00752 |
| Jeremy Bonderman | Det | 516 | 367 | 363.32 | 0.711 | 0.704 | 0.00713 |
| David T Bush | Tor | 303 | 217 | 214.91 | 0.716 | 0.709 | 0.00691 |
| Miguel Batista | Tor | 641 | 445 | 440.61 | 0.694 | 0.687 | 0.00684 |
| Eric Milton | Phi | 577 | 423 | 419.21 | 0.733 | 0.727 | 0.00656 |
| Livan Hernandez | Mon | 745 | 530 | 525.19 | 0.711 | 0.705 | 0.00646 |
| Wes Obermueller | Mil | 410 | 284 | 281.39 | 0.693 | 0.686 | 0.00637 |
| Claudio Vargas | Mon | 344 | 247 | 244.84 | 0.718 | 0.712 | 0.00628 |
| Mike Mussina | NYY | 501 | 339 | 336.06 | 0.677 | 0.671 | 0.00587 |
| John Halama | TB | 400 | 278 | 275.67 | 0.695 | 0.689 | 0.00582 |
| Barry Zito | Oak | 642 | 449 | 445.47 | 0.699 | 0.694 | 0.00550 |
| Matt Clement | ChC | 472 | 332 | 329.44 | 0.703 | 0.698 | 0.00543 |
| Roy Oswalt | Hou | 686 | 465 | 461.31 | 0.678 | 0.672 | 0.00538 |
| Jose Lima | LA | 540 | 389 | 386.11 | 0.720 | 0.715 | 0.00536 |
| Brett Myers | Phi | 563 | 391 | 388.00 | 0.694 | 0.689 | 0.00532 |
| Mark Mulder | Oak | 689 | 477 | 473.36 | 0.692 | 0.687 | 0.00528 |
| Carlos Zambrano | ChC | 584 | 415 | 412.33 | 0.711 | 0.706 | 0.00458 |
| David Wells | SD | 657 | 465 | 462.04 | 0.708 | 0.703 | 0.00450 |
| Javier Vazquez | NYY | 595 | 425 | 422.62 | 0.714 | 0.710 | 0.00400 |
| Pedro Martinez | Bos | 574 | 403 | 401.14 | 0.702 | 0.699 | 0.00324 |
| Steve Trachsel | NYM | 651 | 461 | 458.96 | 0.708 | 0.705 | 0.00314 |
| Jeff Weaver | LA | 680 | 478 | 475.87 | 0.703 | 0.700 | 0.00313 |
| Ryan Drese | Tex | 713 | 490 | 487.95 | 0.687 | 0.684 | 0.00288 |
| Johan Santana | Min | 529 | 392 | 390.53 | 0.741 | 0.738 | 0.00277 |
| Josh Fogg | Pit | 597 | 414 | 412.36 | 0.693 | 0.691 | 0.00274 |
| Russ Ortiz | Atl | 615 | 435 | 433.52 | 0.707 | 0.705 | 0.00240 |
| Doug Davis | Mil | 614 | 424 | 422.71 | 0.691 | 0.688 | 0.00210 |
| Jason Jennings | Col | 654 | 438 | 436.89 | 0.670 | 0.668 | 0.00170 |
| Ryan Franklin | Sea | 659 | 464 | 462.89 | 0.704 | 0.702 | 0.00168 |
| Sun-Woo Kim | Mon | 429 | 293 | 292.67 | 0.683 | 0.682 | 0.00076 |
| Mike Hampton | Atl | 592 | 397 | 397.16 | 0.671 | 0.671 | -0.00026 |
| Ron Villone | Sea | 349 | 249 | 249.19 | 0.713 | 0.714 | -0.00053 |
| Steve W Sparks | Ari | 420 | 288 | 288.26 | 0.686 | 0.686 | -0.00063 |
| Freddy Garcia | Sea | 321 | 229 | 229.23 | 0.713 | 0.714 | -0.00072 |
| Brad Radke | Min | 702 | 489 | 489.59 | 0.697 | 0.697 | -0.00084 |
| Brian Anderson | KC | 588 | 393 | 393.59 | 0.668 | 0.669 | -0.00100 |
| Mark Hendrickson | TB | 638 | 437 | 437.68 | 0.685 | 0.686 | -0.00107 |
| Josh Beckett | Fla | 426 | 297 | 297.50 | 0.697 | 0.698 | -0.00118 |
| John Thomson | Atl | 623 | 423 | 424.48 | 0.679 | 0.681 | -0.00237 |
| Daniel A Cabrera | Bal | 480 | 345 | 346.17 | 0.719 | 0.721 | -0.00243 |
| Kirk Rueter | SF | 694 | 478 | 480.76 | 0.689 | 0.693 | -0.00398 |
| Matt Morris | StL | 621 | 439 | 441.50 | 0.707 | 0.711 | -0.00402 |
| Kelvim Escobar | Ana | 583 | 407 | 409.41 | 0.698 | 0.702 | -0.00414 |
| Bronson Arroyo | Bos | 538 | 372 | 374.28 | 0.691 | 0.696 | -0.00425 |
| Scott Schoeneweis | CWS | 361 | 245 | 246.55 | 0.679 | 0.683 | -0.00429 |
| Jaret Wright | Atl | 537 | 371 | 374.17 | 0.691 | 0.697 | -0.00590 |
| Jason Marquis | StL | 628 | 430 | 433.74 | 0.685 | 0.691 | -0.00595 |
| Kerry Wood | ChC | 373 | 256 | 258.29 | 0.686 | 0.692 | -0.00615 |
| Adam Eaton | SD | 604 | 418 | 422.13 | 0.692 | 0.699 | -0.00684 |
| Gary Knotts | Det | 435 | 306 | 309.00 | 0.703 | 0.710 | -0.00691 |
| Rodrigo Lopez | Bal | 514 | 366 | 369.64 | 0.712 | 0.719 | -0.00708 |
| Joel Pineiro | Sea | 417 | 289 | 291.96 | 0.693 | 0.700 | -0.00710 |
| Ramon Ortiz | Ana | 401 | 275 | 277.91 | 0.686 | 0.693 | -0.00725 |
| Bartolo Colon | Ana | 627 | 439 | 443.76 | 0.700 | 0.708 | -0.00758 |
| Jeff Fassero | Col | 388 | 257 | 260.34 | 0.662 | 0.671 | -0.00862 |
| Dustin Hermanson | SF | 399 | 278 | 281.46 | 0.697 | 0.705 | -0.00868 |
| Jake Peavy | SD | 443 | 303 | 306.86 | 0.684 | 0.693 | -0.00872 |
| Tim Hudson | Oak | 624 | 428 | 433.93 | 0.686 | 0.695 | -0.00950 |
| Kevin Millwood | Phi | 429 | 286 | 290.47 | 0.667 | 0.677 | -0.01041 |
| Cliff Lee | Cle | 516 | 353 | 358.41 | 0.684 | 0.695 | -0.01048 |
| Paul Wilson | Cin | 584 | 414 | 420.22 | 0.709 | 0.720 | -0.01065 |
| Esteban Loaiza | CWS | 452 | 313 | 317.91 | 0.692 | 0.703 | -0.01085 |
| Ben Sheets | Mil | 611 | 427 | 433.71 | 0.699 | 0.710 | -0.01099 |
| Shawn Estes | Col | 641 | 440 | 447.16 | 0.686 | 0.698 | -0.01117 |
| Tim Wakefield | Bos | 606 | 430 | 437.09 | 0.710 | 0.721 | -0.01169 |
| Wilson Alvarez | LA | 349 | 249 | 253.22 | 0.713 | 0.726 | -0.01208 |
| Kip Wells | Pit | 417 | 278 | 283.06 | 0.667 | 0.679 | -0.01214 |
| Joe Kennedy | Col | 495 | 342 | 348.22 | 0.691 | 0.703 | -0.01257 |
| Jason Johnson | Det | 647 | 435 | 443.38 | 0.672 | 0.685 | -0.01295 |
| Jarrod Washburn | Ana | 489 | 337 | 343.77 | 0.689 | 0.703 | -0.01384 |
| Vicente Padilla | Phi | 358 | 249 | 254.02 | 0.696 | 0.710 | -0.01402 |
| Brad Penny | Fla | 388 | 270 | 275.65 | 0.696 | 0.710 | -0.01457 |
| Cory Lidle | Cin | 490 | 334 | 341.28 | 0.682 | 0.696 | -0.01486 |
| Jamie Moyer | Sea | 643 | 462 | 471.86 | 0.719 | 0.734 | -0.01533 |
| Josh Towers | Tor | 416 | 277 | 283.40 | 0.666 | 0.681 | -0.01539 |
| Gil Meche | Sea | 393 | 269 | 275.31 | 0.684 | 0.701 | -0.01605 |
| Paul Byrd | Atl | 364 | 252 | 257.84 | 0.692 | 0.708 | -0.01605 |
| Joaquin Benoit | Tex | 302 | 205 | 210.10 | 0.679 | 0.696 | -0.01689 |
| Nate Robertson | Det | 597 | 400 | 410.26 | 0.670 | 0.687 | -0.01718 |
| Rich Harden | Oak | 536 | 372 | 381.23 | 0.694 | 0.711 | -0.01722 |
| Aaron Cook | Col | 340 | 233 | 238.87 | 0.685 | 0.703 | -0.01727 |
| Casey Fossum | Ari | 431 | 286 | 293.91 | 0.664 | 0.682 | -0.01835 |
| Aaron Harang | Cin | 497 | 339 | 348.12 | 0.682 | 0.700 | -0.01836 |
| Woody Williams | StL | 599 | 419 | 430.24 | 0.699 | 0.718 | -0.01876 |
| Ismael Valdez | SD | 418 | 291 | 299.29 | 0.696 | 0.716 | -0.01984 |
| Carlos Silva | Min | 730 | 492 | 506.64 | 0.674 | 0.694 | -0.02006 |
| Kris Benson | Pit | 422 | 287 | 295.57 | 0.680 | 0.700 | -0.02030 |
| Roy Halladay | Tor | 413 | 280 | 289.10 | 0.678 | 0.700 | -0.02204 |
| Kyle Lohse | Min | 660 | 438 | 452.93 | 0.664 | 0.686 | -0.02262 |
| Mark Redman | Oak | 627 | 428 | 442.24 | 0.683 | 0.705 | -0.02271 |
| Tim Redding | Hou | 347 | 228 | 236.02 | 0.657 | 0.680 | -0.02312 |
| Oliver Perez | Pit | 454 | 327 | 337.78 | 0.720 | 0.744 | -0.02375 |
| Pete Munro | Hou | 335 | 223 | 231.18 | 0.666 | 0.690 | -0.02441 |
| Mike Maroth | Det | 728 | 494 | 512.45 | 0.679 | 0.704 | -0.02534 |
| Jose Acevedo | Cin | 505 | 341 | 354.09 | 0.675 | 0.701 | -0.02592 |
| Dontrelle Willis | Fla | 618 | 421 | 437.13 | 0.681 | 0.707 | -0.02610 |
| Terry Mulholland | Min | 433 | 282 | 293.62 | 0.651 | 0.678 | -0.02683 |
| Mark Prior | ChC | 305 | 204 | 212.84 | 0.669 | 0.698 | -0.02899 |
| Brandon Webb | Ari | 619 | 417 | 435.14 | 0.674 | 0.703 | -0.02930 |
| Dewon Brazelton | TB | 395 | 281 | 292.84 | 0.711 | 0.741 | -0.02997 |
| Todd Van Poppel | Cin | 371 | 254 | 265.17 | 0.685 | 0.715 | -0.03010 |
| Sidney Ponson | Bal | 737 | 486 | 508.82 | 0.659 | 0.690 | -0.03097 |
| Aaron Sele | Ana | 470 | 317 | 332.45 | 0.674 | 0.707 | -0.03288 |
| Victor Santos | Mil | 487 | 327 | 344.39 | 0.671 | 0.707 | -0.03570 |
| Dennys Reyes | KC | 327 | 214 | 225.97 | 0.654 | 0.691 | -0.03660 |
| Erik Bedard | Bal | 419 | 277 | 292.93 | 0.661 | 0.699 | -0.03801 |
| Derek Lowe | Bos | 640 | 410 | 434.81 | 0.641 | 0.679 | -0.03877 |
| R.A. Dickey | Tex | 368 | 239 | 253.33 | 0.649 | 0.688 | -0.03895 |
| John Lackey | Ana | 620 | 422 | 446.54 | 0.681 | 0.720 | -0.03958 |
| Darrell May | KC | 616 | 408 | 434.62 | 0.662 | 0.706 | -0.04321 |
| Paul Quantrill | NYY | 358 | 236 | 252.96 | 0.659 | 0.707 | -0.04738 |
| Jason Davis | Cle | 399 | 256 | 275.98 | 0.642 | 0.692 | -0.05006 |
| Jon Lieber | NYY | 605 | 398 | 428.58 | 0.658 | 0.708 | -0.05054 |
And here is the table for just the Red Sox pitchers. Embree beats out Schilling with the new data.
2004 Red Sox Pitchers, minimum 100 balls in play against.
| Pitcher | Team | InPlay | Actual Outs | Predicted Outs | DER | Predicted DER | Difference
|
|---|
| Alan Embree | Bos | 159 | 114 | 107.37 | 0.717 | 0.675 | 0.04171 |
| Curt Schilling | Bos | 641 | 454 | 427.90 | 0.708 | 0.668 | 0.04071 |
| Mike Timlin | Bos | 232 | 160 | 152.60 | 0.690 | 0.658 | 0.03191 |
| Keith Foulke | Bos | 225 | 166 | 160.56 | 0.738 | 0.714 | 0.02419 |
| Pedro Martinez | Bos | 574 | 403 | 401.14 | 0.702 | 0.699 | 0.00324 |
| Bronson Arroyo | Bos | 538 | 372 | 374.28 | 0.691 | 0.696 | -0.00425 |
| Tim Wakefield | Bos | 606 | 430 | 437.09 | 0.710 | 0.721 | -0.01169 |
| Derek Lowe | Bos | 640 | 410 | 434.81 | 0.641 | 0.679 | -0.03877 |
Posted by David Pinto at
03:36 PM
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Defense
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