Baseball Musings
Baseball Musings
January 29, 2005
Probabilistic Model of Range

I've been working on the software for this during the week, and have acquired updated ball in play data as well. I'm now ready to go full bore with the study.

First, however, an update of a couple of tables shown previously. The good people at Baseball Info Solutions have been busy recording batted ball information this winter to complete the database, and that new data is included in the following table. This should replace the table found here.

2004 Probabilistic Model of Range, Totals for Teams
TeamInPlayActual OutsPredicted OutsDERPredicted DERDifference
Cardinals43783106 3092.01 0.709 0.706 0.00320
Cubs41192869 2855.86 0.697 0.693 0.00319
Red Sox43873040 3027.90 0.693 0.690 0.00276
White Sox43703034 3025.58 0.694 0.692 0.00193
Phillies44403120 3118.53 0.703 0.702 0.00033
Devil Rays44593119 3121.25 0.699 0.700 -0.00050
Dodgers43243084 3086.19 0.713 0.714 -0.00051
Marlins42572987 2991.48 0.702 0.703 -0.00105
Giants45413149 3156.63 0.693 0.695 -0.00168
Mets45523165 3174.40 0.695 0.697 -0.00206
Blue Jays44713091 3100.88 0.691 0.694 -0.00221
Padres43963044 3058.60 0.692 0.696 -0.00332
Braves44883087 3102.55 0.688 0.691 -0.00346
Rangers45493124 3141.88 0.687 0.691 -0.00393
Diamondbacks43152941 2961.05 0.682 0.686 -0.00465
Astros41482842 2863.53 0.685 0.690 -0.00519
Indians44863065 3090.32 0.683 0.689 -0.00564
Athletics44893123 3150.72 0.696 0.702 -0.00618
Expos44143061 3095.05 0.693 0.701 -0.00771
Rockies46143136 3176.20 0.680 0.688 -0.00871
Brewers44103045 3087.09 0.690 0.700 -0.00954
Mariners44883140 3187.45 0.700 0.710 -0.01057
Twins44863082 3135.59 0.687 0.699 -0.01195
Reds45843151 3213.64 0.687 0.701 -0.01367
Pirates43172956 3017.18 0.685 0.699 -0.01417
Orioles44513055 3124.15 0.686 0.702 -0.01554
Yankees44923085 3164.12 0.687 0.704 -0.01761
Tigers45213090 3172.22 0.683 0.702 -0.01819
Royals46473131 3227.78 0.674 0.695 -0.02083
Angels43592990 3081.10 0.686 0.707 -0.02090

The order of team changes a bit, but not much. It still looks like a poor defensive season overall.

The other chart to update had to do with performance behind pitchers, and that's updated in the extended entry.

Defense Behind Pitchers, 2004, ranked by difference between expected outs and actual outs.
PitcherTeamInPlayActual OutsPredicted OutsDERPredicted DERDifference
Curt SchillingBos641454 427.90 0.708 0.668 0.04071
Scott ElartonCle346258 248.44 0.746 0.718 0.02763
Zach DayMon372266 256.16 0.715 0.689 0.02646
Zack Z GreinkeKC438317 305.84 0.724 0.698 0.02549
Al LeiterNYM508377 364.14 0.742 0.717 0.02532
Rob BellTB409295 284.79 0.721 0.696 0.02495
C.C. SabathiaCle547388 374.90 0.709 0.685 0.02395
Greg MadduxChC642455 440.39 0.709 0.686 0.02276
Glendon RuschChC407282 272.76 0.693 0.670 0.02271
Brett TomkoSF634446 432.04 0.703 0.681 0.02202
Jerome WilliamsSF404290 282.59 0.718 0.699 0.01834
Carl PavanoFla693490 477.34 0.707 0.689 0.01826
Randy JohnsonAri601431 420.63 0.717 0.700 0.01725
Kevin BrownNYY416295 288.02 0.709 0.692 0.01679
Ted LillyTor556406 396.88 0.730 0.714 0.01640
Randy WolfPhi434305 297.89 0.703 0.686 0.01637
A.J. BurnettFla326231 225.69 0.709 0.692 0.01629
Jason SchmidtSF557407 398.32 0.731 0.715 0.01558
Victor ZambranoTB351251 245.92 0.715 0.701 0.01448
Mark BuehrleCWS758520 509.04 0.686 0.672 0.01446
Jeff SuppanStL603426 417.80 0.706 0.693 0.01360
Kenny RogersTex707472 462.41 0.668 0.654 0.01357
Jake WestbrookCle694489 479.68 0.705 0.691 0.01343
Kazuhisa IshiiLA525387 380.71 0.737 0.725 0.01197
Tom GlavineNYM705502 493.92 0.712 0.701 0.01145
Roger ClemensHou559399 392.79 0.714 0.703 0.01111
Jon GarlandCWS694497 489.46 0.716 0.705 0.01087
Chris CarpenterStL521369 363.36 0.708 0.697 0.01083
Ryan VogelsongPit417289 284.73 0.693 0.683 0.01024
Mike WoodKC327228 225.00 0.697 0.688 0.00918
Odalis PerezLA585429 423.68 0.733 0.724 0.00910
Jae SeoNYM389269 265.53 0.692 0.683 0.00891
Brian LawrenceSD659451 445.55 0.684 0.676 0.00827
Jimmy GobbleKC519377 373.10 0.726 0.719 0.00752
Jeremy BondermanDet516367 363.32 0.711 0.704 0.00713
David T BushTor303217 214.91 0.716 0.709 0.00691
Miguel BatistaTor641445 440.61 0.694 0.687 0.00684
Eric MiltonPhi577423 419.21 0.733 0.727 0.00656
Livan HernandezMon745530 525.19 0.711 0.705 0.00646
Wes ObermuellerMil410284 281.39 0.693 0.686 0.00637
Claudio VargasMon344247 244.84 0.718 0.712 0.00628
Mike MussinaNYY501339 336.06 0.677 0.671 0.00587
John HalamaTB400278 275.67 0.695 0.689 0.00582
Barry ZitoOak642449 445.47 0.699 0.694 0.00550
Matt ClementChC472332 329.44 0.703 0.698 0.00543
Roy OswaltHou686465 461.31 0.678 0.672 0.00538
Jose LimaLA540389 386.11 0.720 0.715 0.00536
Brett MyersPhi563391 388.00 0.694 0.689 0.00532
Mark MulderOak689477 473.36 0.692 0.687 0.00528
Carlos ZambranoChC584415 412.33 0.711 0.706 0.00458
David WellsSD657465 462.04 0.708 0.703 0.00450
Javier VazquezNYY595425 422.62 0.714 0.710 0.00400
Pedro MartinezBos574403 401.14 0.702 0.699 0.00324
Steve TrachselNYM651461 458.96 0.708 0.705 0.00314
Jeff WeaverLA680478 475.87 0.703 0.700 0.00313
Ryan DreseTex713490 487.95 0.687 0.684 0.00288
Johan SantanaMin529392 390.53 0.741 0.738 0.00277
Josh FoggPit597414 412.36 0.693 0.691 0.00274
Russ OrtizAtl615435 433.52 0.707 0.705 0.00240
Doug DavisMil614424 422.71 0.691 0.688 0.00210
Jason JenningsCol654438 436.89 0.670 0.668 0.00170
Ryan FranklinSea659464 462.89 0.704 0.702 0.00168
Sun-Woo KimMon429293 292.67 0.683 0.682 0.00076
Mike HamptonAtl592397 397.16 0.671 0.671 -0.00026
Ron VilloneSea349249 249.19 0.713 0.714 -0.00053
Steve W SparksAri420288 288.26 0.686 0.686 -0.00063
Freddy GarciaSea321229 229.23 0.713 0.714 -0.00072
Brad RadkeMin702489 489.59 0.697 0.697 -0.00084
Brian AndersonKC588393 393.59 0.668 0.669 -0.00100
Mark HendricksonTB638437 437.68 0.685 0.686 -0.00107
Josh BeckettFla426297 297.50 0.697 0.698 -0.00118
John ThomsonAtl623423 424.48 0.679 0.681 -0.00237
Daniel A CabreraBal480345 346.17 0.719 0.721 -0.00243
Kirk RueterSF694478 480.76 0.689 0.693 -0.00398
Matt MorrisStL621439 441.50 0.707 0.711 -0.00402
Kelvim EscobarAna583407 409.41 0.698 0.702 -0.00414
Bronson ArroyoBos538372 374.28 0.691 0.696 -0.00425
Scott SchoeneweisCWS361245 246.55 0.679 0.683 -0.00429
Jaret WrightAtl537371 374.17 0.691 0.697 -0.00590
Jason MarquisStL628430 433.74 0.685 0.691 -0.00595
Kerry WoodChC373256 258.29 0.686 0.692 -0.00615
Adam EatonSD604418 422.13 0.692 0.699 -0.00684
Gary KnottsDet435306 309.00 0.703 0.710 -0.00691
Rodrigo LopezBal514366 369.64 0.712 0.719 -0.00708
Joel PineiroSea417289 291.96 0.693 0.700 -0.00710
Ramon OrtizAna401275 277.91 0.686 0.693 -0.00725
Bartolo ColonAna627439 443.76 0.700 0.708 -0.00758
Jeff FasseroCol388257 260.34 0.662 0.671 -0.00862
Dustin HermansonSF399278 281.46 0.697 0.705 -0.00868
Jake PeavySD443303 306.86 0.684 0.693 -0.00872
Tim HudsonOak624428 433.93 0.686 0.695 -0.00950
Kevin MillwoodPhi429286 290.47 0.667 0.677 -0.01041
Cliff LeeCle516353 358.41 0.684 0.695 -0.01048
Paul WilsonCin584414 420.22 0.709 0.720 -0.01065
Esteban LoaizaCWS452313 317.91 0.692 0.703 -0.01085
Ben SheetsMil611427 433.71 0.699 0.710 -0.01099
Shawn EstesCol641440 447.16 0.686 0.698 -0.01117
Tim WakefieldBos606430 437.09 0.710 0.721 -0.01169
Wilson AlvarezLA349249 253.22 0.713 0.726 -0.01208
Kip WellsPit417278 283.06 0.667 0.679 -0.01214
Joe KennedyCol495342 348.22 0.691 0.703 -0.01257
Jason JohnsonDet647435 443.38 0.672 0.685 -0.01295
Jarrod WashburnAna489337 343.77 0.689 0.703 -0.01384
Vicente PadillaPhi358249 254.02 0.696 0.710 -0.01402
Brad PennyFla388270 275.65 0.696 0.710 -0.01457
Cory LidleCin490334 341.28 0.682 0.696 -0.01486
Jamie MoyerSea643462 471.86 0.719 0.734 -0.01533
Josh TowersTor416277 283.40 0.666 0.681 -0.01539
Gil MecheSea393269 275.31 0.684 0.701 -0.01605
Paul ByrdAtl364252 257.84 0.692 0.708 -0.01605
Joaquin BenoitTex302205 210.10 0.679 0.696 -0.01689
Nate RobertsonDet597400 410.26 0.670 0.687 -0.01718
Rich HardenOak536372 381.23 0.694 0.711 -0.01722
Aaron CookCol340233 238.87 0.685 0.703 -0.01727
Casey FossumAri431286 293.91 0.664 0.682 -0.01835
Aaron HarangCin497339 348.12 0.682 0.700 -0.01836
Woody WilliamsStL599419 430.24 0.699 0.718 -0.01876
Ismael ValdezSD418291 299.29 0.696 0.716 -0.01984
Carlos SilvaMin730492 506.64 0.674 0.694 -0.02006
Kris BensonPit422287 295.57 0.680 0.700 -0.02030
Roy HalladayTor413280 289.10 0.678 0.700 -0.02204
Kyle LohseMin660438 452.93 0.664 0.686 -0.02262
Mark RedmanOak627428 442.24 0.683 0.705 -0.02271
Tim ReddingHou347228 236.02 0.657 0.680 -0.02312
Oliver PerezPit454327 337.78 0.720 0.744 -0.02375
Pete MunroHou335223 231.18 0.666 0.690 -0.02441
Mike MarothDet728494 512.45 0.679 0.704 -0.02534
Jose AcevedoCin505341 354.09 0.675 0.701 -0.02592
Dontrelle WillisFla618421 437.13 0.681 0.707 -0.02610
Terry MulhollandMin433282 293.62 0.651 0.678 -0.02683
Mark PriorChC305204 212.84 0.669 0.698 -0.02899
Brandon WebbAri619417 435.14 0.674 0.703 -0.02930
Dewon BrazeltonTB395281 292.84 0.711 0.741 -0.02997
Todd Van PoppelCin371254 265.17 0.685 0.715 -0.03010
Sidney PonsonBal737486 508.82 0.659 0.690 -0.03097
Aaron SeleAna470317 332.45 0.674 0.707 -0.03288
Victor SantosMil487327 344.39 0.671 0.707 -0.03570
Dennys ReyesKC327214 225.97 0.654 0.691 -0.03660
Erik BedardBal419277 292.93 0.661 0.699 -0.03801
Derek LoweBos640410 434.81 0.641 0.679 -0.03877
R.A. DickeyTex368239 253.33 0.649 0.688 -0.03895
John LackeyAna620422 446.54 0.681 0.720 -0.03958
Darrell MayKC616408 434.62 0.662 0.706 -0.04321
Paul QuantrillNYY358236 252.96 0.659 0.707 -0.04738
Jason DavisCle399256 275.98 0.642 0.692 -0.05006
Jon LieberNYY605398 428.58 0.658 0.708 -0.05054

And here is the table for just the Red Sox pitchers. Embree beats out Schilling with the new data.

2004 Red Sox Pitchers, minimum 100 balls in play against.
PitcherTeamInPlayActual OutsPredicted OutsDERPredicted DERDifference
Alan EmbreeBos159114 107.37 0.717 0.675 0.04171
Curt SchillingBos641454 427.90 0.708 0.668 0.04071
Mike TimlinBos232160 152.60 0.690 0.658 0.03191
Keith FoulkeBos225166 160.56 0.738 0.714 0.02419
Pedro MartinezBos574403 401.14 0.702 0.699 0.00324
Bronson ArroyoBos538372 374.28 0.691 0.696 -0.00425
Tim WakefieldBos606430 437.09 0.710 0.721 -0.01169
Derek LoweBos640410 434.81 0.641 0.679 -0.03877

Posted by David Pinto at 03:36 PM | Defense | TrackBack (1)
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