Baseball Musings
Baseball Musings
October 07, 2005
Flaherty vs. Posada

John Flaherty gets the start tonight behind the plate instead of Jorge Posada. This breaks a streak of 67 post-season starts by Posada.

Still, Flaherty has caught all but one of Johnson's last 22 starts, beginning when the Big Unit tossed seven shutout innings against St. Louis on June11. Johnson has gone 12-2 with a 3.29 ERA in games caught by Flaherty this season, and 5-6 with a 4.55 ERA while working with Posada. That includes a 10-2 loss to Detroit on July 1, the last time the Yanks' longtime catcher has called signals for the veteran ace.

I had a discussion with a friend of mine about this the other day. He didn't see how you could start an offensive millstone like Flaherty in the playoffs. He also thought the sample sizes were too small to be able to discern an actual difference between the ability of the catchers to affect a pitcher.

I disagree. If you believe the difference is caused by Flaherty, then he's saved the Yankees over 25 earned runs in around 21 games. Posada isn't that great a hitter that he's going to produce that much offense over 25 games. Posada created 71 runs in 142 games played, or 1/2 a run per game. For all intents and purposes, we'll give John a 0 for runs created. That means the Yankees are losing 1/2 a run offensively, but gaining over a run defensively with Flaherty behind the plate. That seems like the right trade off to me.

It also explains why catchers are not known for their hitting. Catchers can have a huge defensive impact on the game, and that's often worth more than the best offense.

I'd also like to note that this is nothing new. Torre often started Girardi in the post season in 1998 and 1999, even though Posada was clearly the superior offensive player. I trust Torre's recognition of defensive talent behind the plate, and he made the right moves in each case.


Posted by David Pinto at 08:14 AM | Defense | TrackBack (0)
Comments

Yep, seems like a good move to me.

Posted by: Frank at October 7, 2005 09:05 AM

I don't think it's Flaherty's defensive talent that gets him the start - it's the fact that Johnson works with Flaherty better than Posada.

Posted by: sabernar at October 7, 2005 10:43 AM

This was one of Varitek's big selling points for the Red Sox - that he made their pitchers better. I wish there was some way to quantify the effect of a catcher on his pitchers. There's just too many variables, I think, to try to eliminate in order to isolate this "skill".

Posted by: Mike at October 7, 2005 12:09 PM

And of course, Varitek's not too shabby with the bat, either.

Hey, have you seen Eric Gagne's umm... "constructive criticism" of Frank McCourt?
http://www.latimes.com/sports/baseball/mlb/dodgers/la-sp-gagne7oct07,0,7731261.story?coll=la-home-headlines

or try:
http://tinyurl.com/ad4mt

Posted by: Adam Villani at October 7, 2005 12:41 PM

Someone needs to figure out a way to measure a catcher's contribution to the pitcher's performance. Throwing out basestealers is the only statistic we routinely see, but it's a relatively minor part of the catcher's skill set, at least in the number of times it's required in a given game. The catcher calls a lot more pitches, and even handles a lot more balls in the dirt, etc. I've often thought that it's difficult to believe the much-maligned Piazza is such a terrible catcher, when his pitchers always seemed to do so well. Same with Victor Martinez, the AL's answer to Piazza. The catcher's contribution to the pitcher's performance might be difficult or to quantify, but can anyone doubt it exists?

Posted by: Joel J at October 7, 2005 01:23 PM

There are lots of different skills that can help or hurt a pitcher. I noticed early this year that Piazza could not move latterally well, and this was causing out pitches by Pedro to become K + WP. Some pitchers need to throw a sinker that bounces in the dirt, and if you don't have a catcher who can block those, you can't throw the pitch with a runner at third. Some supposedly influence umpires with framing. Yogi Berra was said to be very aware of minor adjustment in hitter's feet, and would call pitches accordingly.

So there's not one particular skill you can measure. Someone who is great for a sinker baller might have trouble with a pitcher with great left-right movement. What Torre and Francona appear to do is match the skill of the catcher with the strength (or weakness) of the pitcher.

Posted by: David Pinto at October 7, 2005 01:34 PM

I don't see how Flaherty can be so much better at catching fastballs and sliders thrown by Randy Johnson than Posada. I think this is a chemistry thing. Randy is a petulent jerk who doesn't like Posada, he gets frustrated when Posada doesn't see eye to eye with him and then blames his early season problems on Jorge.

Flaherty is essentially a scrub who won't ever probably challenge Randy. But I don't believe Posada somehow mechanically can't handly Randy to the tune of 25 runs or whatever.

Posted by: steve at October 7, 2005 02:06 PM

//Flaherty is essentially a scrub who won't ever probably challenge Randy.//

I don't think that's the case. Flaherty was the one who suggested that Randy throw off the mound between starts. He also tells him when his mechanics are off and things of that nature. Just a theory, but maybe Jorge is the type of catcher who relies on motivating his pitchers (whether it's by berating them or through words encouragement) and John is the type to point out mechanical issues. Maybe Randy responds more to "this is what you're doing wrong" than the "hey, get your shit together and pitch" type stuff.

Posted by: Jen at October 7, 2005 02:25 PM

Well that's all conjecture (on my part as well) but I stand by the fact that this has a lot more to do with personalities than physical skill sets.

Posted by: steve at October 7, 2005 02:35 PM

Oh, absolutely. I think it comes down to how each catcher deals with a pitcher psychologically. And personality has a lot to do with it. I just don't think that Flaherty is a pushover.

Posted by: Jen at October 7, 2005 03:20 PM
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