Baseball Musings: Probabilistic Model of Range, Third Basemen

February 01, 2005

Probabilistic Model of Range, Third Basemen

For your perusal, the 2004 third basemen.

Probabilistic Model of Range, Third Basemen, 2004, 1000 balls in play.
Player	InPlay	Actual Outs	Predicted Outs	DER	Predicted DER	Difference
Pedro Feliz	1096	112	95.35	0.102	0.087	0.01519
Kevin Youkilis	1556	150	127.43	0.096	0.082	0.01450
Russell Branyan	1117	117	101.69	0.105	0.091	0.01371
Chone Figgins	2031	178	150.47	0.088	0.074	0.01356
Scott Rolen	3671	391	342.41	0.107	0.093	0.01324
Ryan Freel	1253	142	125.75	0.113	0.100	0.01297
Adrian Beltre	3998	416	364.53	0.104	0.091	0.01287
Chipper Jones	2435	224	193.35	0.092	0.079	0.01259
Eric Chavez	3437	357	324.13	0.104	0.094	0.00956
Joe Randa	3343	306	274.41	0.092	0.082	0.00945
Melvin Mora	3697	351	319.72	0.095	0.086	0.00846
Alex Rodriguez	4213	329	293.99	0.078	0.070	0.00831
Bill Mueller	2448	216	196.31	0.088	0.080	0.00805
Mike Lamb	1366	135	124.49	0.099	0.091	0.00770
David A Wright	1870	158	145.59	0.084	0.078	0.00663
Corey Koskie	3031	262	242.37	0.086	0.080	0.00648
Vinny Castilla	4121	405	379.12	0.098	0.092	0.00628
Casey Blake	4116	369	343.77	0.090	0.084	0.00613
Todd Zeile	1107	103	96.33	0.093	0.087	0.00602
David Bell	3805	377	355.71	0.099	0.093	0.00559
Juan Castro	1224	101	94.90	0.083	0.078	0.00499
Rob Mackowiak	1289	117	111.23	0.091	0.086	0.00448
Sean Burroughs	3286	279	264.57	0.085	0.081	0.00439
Edgardo Alfonzo	3326	307	292.39	0.092	0.088	0.00439
Mark DeRosa	1748	138	130.35	0.079	0.075	0.00438
Chad A Tracy	3136	320	307.39	0.102	0.098	0.00402
Ty Wigginton	2875	256	244.78	0.089	0.085	0.00390
Hank Blalock	4358	362	345.35	0.083	0.079	0.00382
Mike Lowell	3921	357	342.36	0.091	0.087	0.00373
Morgan Ensberg	2564	222	213.08	0.087	0.083	0.00348
Scott Spiezio	1787	170	163.79	0.095	0.092	0.00347
Geoff Blum	1233	105	100.79	0.085	0.082	0.00342
Aramis Ramirez	3464	291	284.46	0.084	0.082	0.00189
Tony Batista	4042	367	364.15	0.091	0.090	0.00071
Aubrey Huff	2214	182	181.20	0.082	0.082	0.00036
Brandon Inge	1690	162	161.45	0.096	0.096	0.00033
Chris Stynes	1187	106	105.75	0.089	0.089	0.00021
Eric Munson	2298	208	207.88	0.091	0.090	0.00005
Joe Crede	3800	299	303.50	0.079	0.080	-0.00118
Keith Ginter	1152	103	104.47	0.089	0.091	-0.00128
Eric Hinske	4121	321	333.49	0.078	0.081	-0.00303
Desi Relaford	1036	94	98.16	0.091	0.095	-0.00402
Wes Helms	1696	141	152.49	0.083	0.090	-0.00677
Mike Cuddyer	1057	76	86.95	0.072	0.082	-0.01036

The Greek God of Walks might also be "death to flying things" at third base. Kevin Youkilis did a great job filling in at third base for the Red Sox this season. I'm not surprised to see Scott Rolen as the top everyday third baseman, but I am surprised to see Chipper Jones rate that highly. And A-Rod aquitted himself well in the move to a new position.

Overall, you'll notice that the third basmen are as positive as the shortstops are negative. I wonder if shifts have become so prevalent that third basemen are picking up a lot of balls that shortstops usually field. I've certainly scored games this season where the third baseman caught the ball at the bag at 2nd base. If the shift was being use a lot more than in 2002 and 2003, that might account for us seeing third basemen positive and shortstops negative.

Posted by David Pinto at 07:25 PM | Defense | TrackBack (2)

Comments

It's probably premature to ask, but I'll do so anyway: do you have any idea how PMR might help us understand how a player will fare upon switching positions? You mention A-Rod, but can we figure out yet to what extent he's either the exception or the rule?

Posted by: Robert Tagorda at February 1, 2005 09:33 PM

Any chance of a breakdown on those Euclis numbers? I don't think any of the season ticket holders in Pawtucket would accept that at face value.

Posted by: Danil at February 1, 2005 09:45 PM

It was the Year of the Third Baseman on offense, so why not on defense too?

Posted by: SirKayGee at February 1, 2005 10:03 PM

If 80% of 3rd basemen are "above average" and 80% of Short Stops are "below average", then maybe the average is off. Seems an obvious wrinkle to examine in your model.

Posted by: killabmc at February 2, 2005 10:16 AM

Let's remember one thing: catching a foul ball for an out is less valuable than catching a fair ball. A dropped or missed foul ball simply means the batter gets another chance to hit, with around a 65-70% chance of making an out some other way. The consequences of a dropped or missed ball in fair territory are much greater, as the batter will almost certainly reach base.

Posted by: Matt Davis at February 2, 2005 10:18 AM

Its any easy step to add +X to SS and subtract X from 3B. What's important is how the players compare to each other.

Melvin Mora's rating surprises me.

Posted by: rallymonkey at February 2, 2005 10:53 AM

Range factors in the National League were in line with past two years' data. If fielders were taking more balls from shortstops, wouldn't that be reflected in RF?

Posted by: rich a at February 2, 2005 11:10 AM

Matt,

I'm not so sure that's a realistic way to look at things. All you're doing is comparing what you can expect if you succeed with what could potentially happen if you fail in the most dismal way possible (i.e. an out vs. a runner reaching base...possibly even a run scoring).

Something to keep in mind is that the vast majority of foul outs are pop-ups. The ones that do land in "catchable" territory are generally, well, "catchable."

What might be a better way to look at it would be to get the usual probability that a "catchable" foul out is turned into an out, use that to determine the total benefit given to a team for making those outs, then compare that to the detriment caused to a team by all the "catchable" outs *not* turned into outs (this would include balls that simply "fell," balls that were turned into live balls and thus allowed a runner to get on base, balls that allowed runners to advance, etc.). This analysis would basically turn into a "runs prevented vs. runs allowed," argument (most accurately done via derivatives).

Granted, catching a foul ball is *probably* less valuable than turning a foul ball into a live ball (I say probably because everything is context sensitive), I wouldn't hesitate to bet that over the total course of a season, and indeed for the majority of situations in a game, going after the foul ball is worth more to a team than simply ignoring them.

Posted by: Inquisitor at February 2, 2005 05:42 PM

Chipper only had to play a little over half the season at 3B. That's got to be the only explanation for his good play last year.

I find it hard to believe that he's suddenly become above-average at 32-33, especially after two years in the OF.

I think he'll be back to his normal self this year, and by June, most of us will wonder why in the heck he's blocking a top hitting prospect who also happens to be excellent defensively...

Posted by: mchenrmd at February 2, 2005 06:16 PM

Archives

By Category:
Advertising (10)
Agents (12)
All-Star Game (173)
All-Time Greats (239)
Army Strong (8)
Attendance (174)
Authors (3)
Awards (169)
Base Running (78)
Baseball (1581)
Baseball Jerks (219)
Blogs (759)
Books (129)
Broadcasts (568)
Charity (49)
Cheating (665)
Collectibles (15)
College (1)
Colleges (3)
Commissioner (40)
Conditioning (1)
Contests (10)
Crime (100)
Cuba (1)
Deaths (169)
Defense (372)
Demographics (8)
Discipline (12)
Division Races (724)
Draft (63)
Equipment (25)
Fan Rant (46)
Fan Violence (10)
Fans (58)
Fantasy Baseball (38)
Feats (3)
Films (3)
Free Agents (782)
Games (5549)
History (102)
Hit Streaks (22)
Humor (64)
Ice Cream (4)
Illnesses (135)
Independent Leagues (16)
Infrastructure (3)
Injuries (1122)
International (76)
Interviews (168)
League Championship Series (1170)
League Division Series (923)
Little League (2)
Management (1281)
Mascots (4)
Matchups (698)
Mechandising (46)
Minor Leagues (12)
Movies (9)
News Media (96)
Oddities (1)
Offense (216)
Old Timers (4)
On Base (18)
Opening Day (210)
Opening Day Impressions (19)
Other (321)
Owners (73)
Pennant Races (32)
Pitchers (2911)
Players (1524)
Podcasts (185)
Post Season (59)
Power Hitting (5)
Pranks (1)
Predictions (145)
Probabilistic Model of Range (108)
Public Relations (8)
Records (153)
Rivals (2)
Rookies (44)
Rules (25)
Salaries (12)
Scheduling (22)
Science (1)
Scoring (5)
Series (61)
Simulations (5)
Sluggers (752)
Spring Training (117)
Stadiums (279)
Standings (25)
Statistics (996)
steroids (1)
Strategy (171)
Streaks (14)
Superstitions (16)
Team Evaluation (937)
Team Movements (58)
Tickets (56)
Trades (700)
Transactions (321)
Umpires (53)
Uniforms (17)
Union (22)
Welcome! (3)
women (4)
World Cup (170)
World Series (657)

By Month:
March 2009
February 2009
January 2009
December 2008
November 2008
October 2008
September 2008
August 2008
July 2008
June 2008
May 2008
April 2008
March 2008
February 2008
January 2008
December 2007
November 2007
October 2007
September 2007
August 2007
July 2007
June 2007
May 2007
April 2007
March 2007
February 2007
January 2007
December 2006
November 2006
October 2006
September 2006
August 2006
July 2006
June 2006
May 2006
April 2006
March 2006
February 2006
January 2006
December 2005
November 2005
October 2005
September 2005
August 2005
July 2005
June 2005
May 2005
April 2005
March 2005
February 2005
January 2005
December 2004
November 2004
October 2004
September 2004
August 2004
July 2004
June 2004
May 2004
April 2004
March 2004
February 2004
January 2004
December 2003
November 2003
October 2003
September 2003
August 2003
July 2003
June 2003
May 2003
April 2003
March 2003
February 2003
January 2003
December 2002
November 2002
October 2002
September 2002
August 2002
July 2002
June 2002
May 2002
April 2002
March 2002

Credits

Partners

Baseball Musings Ticket Store
Advertise on the Baseball Blogosphere!
Baseball Musings Fantasy Games
Sports Books
Fan Store

Patrons

Jan in Wellesley
Jack Spellman
Peter Gammons

Links

Baseball Info Solutions The publisher of the Bill James Handbook and a great source of stats.

ESPN.com's baseball page.

STATS, Inc. You'll find great baseball books and fantasy games here.

Baseball Direct Scoreboard This is powered by STATS, Inc. Good box scores, and good situational stats.

Baseball Reference.com It's like having Total Baseball and the Big Mac online!

Baseball Trade Rumors Thoughts on wheeling and dealing.

Baseball Prospectus.com Wonderful commentary and analysis.

Baseball Primer Baseball for the Thinking Fan.

The Hardball Times Baseball. Insight. Daily.

Minor League Spilts Database Up-to-date minor league statistics, broken down by situation.

Inside The Book A blog by the authors of The Book.

Baseboogle A search engine for baseball research sites.

Win Shares From Major League Baseball Graphs.

The Transaction Guy A baseball transactions blog.

Japan Baseball Daily An English language site for Japanese baseball news and stats.

Doug's Business of Baseball Weblog A blog with a focus on the economics of the game.

Why I Like Baseball A Yankee fan writes about her favorite team.

Skilton's Baseball Links Links to numerous baseball sources.

Dan Lewis A blog about all sports.

Birds in the Belfry A site about the Orioles. Articles and research.

Only Baseball Matters A baseball blog by a John J. Perricone.

Jocksalot Lots of sports links.

Al's Ramblings A Brewer's blog.

Futility Infielder Jay Jaffe's baseball site. More than just a blog.

Mike's Baseball Rants Mike Carminati's baseball blog.

Aaron's Baseball Blog A general interest baseball blog.

Boy of Summer Travis Nelson on baseball.

Baseball Crank Dan McLaughlin's blog on baseball, the war and politics.

Bambino's Curse Edward Cossette's blog about the Red Sox.

Oakland Athletics Blog David Levens writes about the A's.

Ducksnorts Articles and Blog by Geoff.

Boston Sports Media Bruce Allen's roundup of the Boston Sports Media.

The Diamond Angle An online baseball magazine.

The Cub Reporter A Chicago Cubs blog.

Bronx Banter A baseball blog by Al Belth.

At Home Plate Articles by Jonathan Leshanski.

Dodger Thoughts Jon Weisman on the Dodgers.

The Clark & Addison Chronicle A Chicago Cubs web log.

Baseball Writing Joe Zibell's essays on baseball.

The Eddie Kranepool Society A Mets blog.

Mariners Weblog The Seattle Post-Intelligencer's weblog written by Shannon Fears

PortlandSoxFan.com A Red Sox blog from Portland, CT.

The Detroit Tigers Weblog Two Tigers fans and their take on the Motor City team.

A Rookie's Life The blog of Cleveland Indians' rookie Jody Gerut.

The Baseball Desert An Englishman living in France writes about the American game.

ChiSox Daily Mike Lubuda writes about the White Sox.

Shallow Center A blog mostly about the Phillies.

The House that Dewey Built Jeff Kuhn writes about the Red Sox.

SethSpeaks.net A blog by a Twins fan.

Frank's Field of Dreams News about Asian players in the United States.

Jay's Giants Blog William Jay blogging about the Giants.

Baseball Savant Cutting edge baseball news and analysis updated everyday from all aspects of the greatest show on dirt!

Athletics Nation Blogging about the A's.

Red Reporter JD Arney writes about the Reds.

Dominican Players Raul Tavares writes about players from his home country.

The Pearly Gates An Anaheim Angels Blog.

Red Sox Haven Randy Booth on baseball.

Tigers Weblog The Detroit News weblog on the Tigers, written by Tom Gage.

Management by Baseball Jeff Angus writes on how business can learn from baseball.

The View From the Bleachers A Chicago Cubs blog.

Cubs Now! Brian Hipp on the Cubs.

Honest Wagner A Pittsburgh Pirates weblog.

All-Baseball.com A collection of excellent baseball weblogs.

Soxaholix A comic strip blog about the Red Sox.

Most Valuable Network Blogging all 30 teams.

Baseball, Etcetera Andrew Godfrey's baseball blog.

Most Valuable Network, Astros Lisa Gray and others write about the Astros.

fenwayfanatics.com A Boston Red Sox blog.

Balls, Sticks & Stuff A sports blog with an emphasis on baseball.

Phillies Nation Brian Michael writes about the Phillies.

Batgirl Less stats, more sass.

Sabernomics Economic thinking about baseball.

Fire Brand of the American League A blog about the Red Sox.

Ivy Chat Chicago Cubs and other rants.

Baseball Evolution A group website writing about baseball.

The Cubdom.com Byron Clarke blogs about the Cubs.

Red Sox Stats Sabermetric numbers for the Red Sox system.

DRays Bay A blog devoted to the Tampa Bay Devil Rays.

Baseball Analysts Rich Lederer and Bryan Smith combine their baseball expertise into a single site.

Over the Monster A Red Sox blog by Randy Booth.

Viva el Birdos Ghosts of the St. Louis Cardinals past, present, and future.

Black Sox Blog A look at the current and historical teams of the South Side of Chicago.

Redleg Nation A group blog about the Cincinnati Reds.

Barry's Journal Barry Bonds' web log.

Hardball Dollars Keeping track of major league salaries.

Clem's Baseball and it's "Green Cathedrals" The resource for baseball stadiums on the web.

The Baseball Zealot Looking at the game of baseball from all sides of the spectrum .

Was Watching Laconic commentary from a Yankeeland zealot.

Bleed Cubbie Blue A Chicago Cubs blog.

Beaneball A's baseball from the heart of New York City.

The Writers A collection of sports writers express their opinions.

Yard Work What the Baseball Tonight crew would write if it could.

United States of Baseball Peter Handrinos' baseball columns.

Beer Leaguer Alternative veiwpoints on the Philadelphia Phillies.

Red Sox Connection Links to everything Red Sox.

Baseball Pilgrimages Stories of visits to baseball parks.

Fangraphs Multi-year charts of player stats.

Roto Authority Unique fantasy baseball information.

Yanksfan vs. Soxfan A Yankees fan and a Red Sox fan battle it out in the blogosphere.

Sawxblog.com A Red Sox fan writes about the home town team.

Oriole Magic An MVN blog about the Orioles.

The Baltimore Chop Joseph Jackson on the Orioles.

Lookout Landing A Seattle Mariners blog.

Sons of Bart Brush A blog about the Harvard baseball team.

Base Blogging A resource for sports and baseball bloggers.

Three True Outcomes A group blog by on major league baseball.

Cardinals Diaspora A blog for Cardinals fans living away from St. Louis.

Where Have You Gone, Andy Van Slyke? A Pittsburgh fan chronicles life in the Grand Canyon.

Brew Crew Ball A blog about the Milwaukee Brewers.

Getting Paid to Watch Posts by a former trainer for the NY Mets.

The Gas House Gang An historical St. Louis Cardinals Blog.

6-4-2 An Angels/Dodgers double play blog.

El Guapo's Ghost Rambles on about the Red Sox Baseball and the Red Sox.

Baseball Etc

Tiger Tales A Detroit Tigers web log.

The Baseball Card Blog A blog about baseball cards.

Sox1Fan A Red Sox blog.

Out of Left Field Another Red Sox blog.

New York Yankees Update A Yankees blog with lots of photos.

Liberty Ball A current and historical Phillies blog.

Crawfish Boxes A Houston Astros blog.

MLB Rumors Clearinghouse News from around the majors.

Roar From 34 A group blog about the Orioles.

Blogging Baseball All-time baseball highlights and real-time commentary.

Rubber Arm A group blog about major league baseball.

Fenway Nation More news about the Red Sox.

Rays of Light A Devil Rays blog.

Fantasy Baseball Chronicle Information for fantasy players.

American Legends A sports blog.

Duffy's Cliff An interactive Red Sox site, featuring a lexicon of the Red Sox.

Oriole Post - The World of Baseball and Beyond An Orioles blog.

DRays Bay A Devil Rays blog.

Mets Heads A blog about the New York Mets.

The Soul of Baseball Joe Posnanski promotes his book on Buck O'Neil and blogs about baseball.

My Baseball Bias A blog about East Coast baseball.

Sports Business Radio Articles and talk about the business of sports.

The Game of Baseball A blog about Major League Baseball.

Baseball Hot Corner Opinionated observations for the thinking fan.

FantasyDope.com Fantasy baseball news.

Peter's Red Sox Forever A Red Sox blog.

Sox Nest Commentary on the Red Sox.

The Big Oz A Florida Marlins blog.

Baseball Reflections Where old school baseball meets sabermetrics.

The Sommer Frieze A Yankees blog.

Fenway Nation A Red Sox fan site.

In-Between Hops A Milwaukee Brewers blog.

Right Field Bleachers Another Milwaukee Brewers blog.

On Baseball and the Reds Another Cincinnati Reds blog.

Crooked Pitch A fantasy baseball blog.

Bless You Boys A Detroit Tigers blog.

Cubs f/x Pitch f/x and the Chicago Cubs.

The Hot Corner

Eephus Pitch Tossing pure junk about New York baseball since 2006.

It Is High, It Is Far, It Is Caught A tribute to John Sterling.

Baseball GB Baseball from a British perspective.

Nick and Nick's Twins Blog A couple of Nicks write on the Twins.

SkyKing162 Baseball with a hint of lime.

Center Field A Red Sox blog.

Empyreal Environs Writing about the Red Sox.

Trophy League Planet Aggregating the baseball blogosphere.

Cardinals Best News Links Aggregating St. Louis Cardinals news.

Zell's Pinstripe Blog A Yankees Blog.

HSAC Blog Official Musings of the Harvard College Sports Analysis Collective.

The Baseball Fix A general baseball blog.

MLB Roundup A baseball video blog.

Fantasy Dope Fantasy Baseball News.

The Cubs Brickyard Hilarious fake news.

Spitting Seeds A blog about Major League baseball.

Infield Chatter A blog covering all aspects of baseball.

The Bronx View A blog and podcast about the Yankees.

Jorge Says No A blog about the Yankees.

Ivy League to MLB Shawn Haviland blogs about his efforts to rise through the Oakland Athletics system.

This Purist Bleeds Pinstripes Blog of a girl who somehow has found a way to balance being a baseball purist with being a New York Yankees fan.

Baseball from Wrigley A Chicago Cubs blog.

Sliding into Home A Yankees blog.

Boras Blog Blogging about Scott Boras.

Injury Tool Fantasy Pitch F/X offers complete information on injuries.

Instapundit Politics and the law. This site inspired me to start blogging.

Rookie Cards Baseball Card grading.

Wild Treasure Treasure hunts through the blogosphere.

San Diego Ticket Finder San Diego Ticket Information.

Prize Sports.net Baseball Collectibles.

Fantasy Sports R Us The #1 Fantasy Baseball Leagues site on the web.

RotoRank - Fantasy Baseball Draft Guides Customized For Any Fantasy Baseball League.