Baseball Musings
Baseball Musings
November 05, 2003
Ballparks and Defense

The next step I'm taking in my probabilistic model of range is to add in the park as a parameter. Here's the new table of predicted and actual defensive efficiency records:

TeamExpected OutsExpected DERActual OutsActual DERDER Difference
Mariners 3070.9 0.709 3120.0 0.720 0.01135
Twins 3174.3 0.688 3226.0 0.699 0.01121
Braves 3110.2 0.689 3150.0 0.697 0.00881
Devil Rays 3173.8 0.700 3204.0 0.707 0.00665
Giants 3064.9 0.703 3091.0 0.709 0.00599
Astros 2959.2 0.698 2981.0 0.704 0.00514
Angels 3092.1 0.698 3108.0 0.702 0.00360
White Sox 3006.9 0.703 3018.0 0.705 0.00259
Indians 3178.7 0.696 3190.0 0.698 0.00247
Cubs 2749.7 0.688 2759.0 0.691 0.00234
Cardinals 3221.4 0.697 3229.0 0.698 0.00163
Expos 3061.6 0.692 3066.0 0.693 0.00100
Blue Jays 3104.6 0.681 3106.0 0.681 0.00032
Royals 3229.7 0.690 3231.0 0.690 0.00027
Phillies 3074.0 0.702 3073.0 0.701 -0.00022
Marlins 3000.9 0.692 2999.0 0.692 -0.00045
Red Sox 3081.8 0.685 3076.0 0.684 -0.00129
Rangers 3066.9 0.677 3060.0 0.675 -0.00152
Pirates 3203.5 0.693 3196.0 0.691 -0.00163
Reds 3203.9 0.690 3195.0 0.688 -0.00192
Athletics 3123.0 0.714 3112.0 0.712 -0.00250
Rockies 3176.2 0.681 3163.0 0.678 -0.00284
Padres 3023.0 0.698 3009.0 0.695 -0.00323
Diamondbacks 2902.4 0.693 2888.0 0.689 -0.00343
Orioles 3153.3 0.688 3132.0 0.683 -0.00465
Dodgers 2846.9 0.708 2828.0 0.703 -0.00470
Brewers 3146.7 0.688 3123.0 0.683 -0.00519
Mets 3137.5 0.696 3099.0 0.688 -0.00855
Tigers 3331.3 0.693 3283.0 0.683 -0.01006
Yankees 3119.8 0.690 3074.0 0.679 -0.01013

One thing for sure, no matter how you measure it, the Mariners are great and the Yankees are poor. One of the more interesting moves is by the Red Sox. They move up to the middle of the pack from the very bottom when you don't include the park as a parameter. This makes sense, since the green monster makes many balls unfieldable. A very similar move happens with the Twins due to the baggy and the fast artifical turf on which they play.

I think the next step is to compare each field with the overall model for the majors to see where in each stadium the biggest differences are.


Posted by David Pinto at 09:40 PM | Defense | TrackBack (0)