Baseball Musings: Probabilistic Model of Range, Third Basemen, 2007

November 13, 2007

Probabilistic Model of Range, Third Basemen, 2007

The Washington Nationals and Ryan Zimmerman lead the way at third base.

Team Third Basemen PMR, 2007, Visit Smooth Distance Model, 2007 data only
Team	In Play	Actual Outs	Predicted Outs	DER	Predicted DER	Ratio
Nationals	4591	448	403.22	0.098	0.088	111.11
Cubs	4177	433	400.61	0.104	0.096	108.09
Giants	4467	434	404.44	0.097	0.091	107.31
Mets	4362	415	390.52	0.095	0.090	106.27
Red Sox	4226	377	356.44	0.089	0.084	105.77
Tigers	4486	446	426.09	0.099	0.095	104.67
Yankees	4511	370	354.08	0.082	0.078	104.50
Orioles	4403	423	406.97	0.096	0.092	103.94
Mariners	4535	423	407.60	0.093	0.090	103.78
Angels	4325	341	329.04	0.079	0.076	103.64
Cardinals	4587	468	459.66	0.102	0.100	101.81
Rangers	4518	385	378.51	0.085	0.084	101.72
Blue Jays	4349	376	371.58	0.086	0.085	101.19
Dodgers	4310	380	376.79	0.088	0.087	100.85
Braves	4404	364	364.35	0.083	0.083	99.90
Brewers	4392	369	371.77	0.084	0.085	99.26
Athletics	4499	399	405.18	0.089	0.090	98.47
Padres	4476	376	382.21	0.084	0.085	98.37
Astros	4530	401	409.30	0.089	0.090	97.97
Phillies	4505	433	442.07	0.096	0.098	97.95
Reds	4533	398	406.34	0.088	0.090	97.95
Royals	4528	378	387.55	0.083	0.086	97.54
Devil Rays	4378	361	370.39	0.082	0.085	97.46
White Sox	4545	426	438.55	0.094	0.096	97.14
Twins	4384	393	405.89	0.090	0.093	96.82
Pirates	4608	450	470.32	0.098	0.102	95.68
Indians	4548	400	421.84	0.088	0.093	94.82
Diamondbacks	4351	344	363.60	0.079	0.084	94.61
Marlins	4491	359	395.76	0.080	0.088	90.71
Rockies	4599	349	393.86	0.076	0.086	88.61

Given that David Wright scores better than Alex Rodriguez, if the Mets sign A-Rod, they should move him to first.

Individual Third Base PMR, 2007, Visit Smooth Distance Model, 2007 data only (1000 balls in play)
Player	In Play	Actual Outs	Predicted Outs	DER	Predicted DER	Ratio
Ryan Zimmerman	4528	443	398.27	0.098	0.088	111.23
Joe Crede	1184	125	113.00	0.106	0.095	110.62
Pedro Feliz	3718	373	341.20	0.100	0.092	109.32
Aramis Ramirez	3208	329	308.47	0.103	0.096	106.65
David Wright	4260	403	378.91	0.095	0.089	106.36
Mike Lowell	3890	342	321.90	0.088	0.083	106.24
Melvin Mora	3225	318	301.25	0.099	0.093	105.56
Maicer Izturis	1320	101	95.97	0.077	0.073	105.24
Brandon Inge	4062	400	380.28	0.098	0.094	105.18
Adrian Beltre	4036	379	362.12	0.094	0.090	104.66
Alex Rodriguez	4158	342	330.85	0.082	0.080	103.37
Scott Rolen	2983	296	287.61	0.099	0.096	102.92
Troy Glaus	2803	241	234.49	0.086	0.084	102.78
Ramon Vazquez	1671	152	148.03	0.091	0.089	102.68
Chone Figgins	2561	198	192.85	0.077	0.075	102.67
Hank Blalock	1082	83	80.94	0.077	0.075	102.55
Morgan Ensberg	1778	165	162.23	0.093	0.091	101.71
Travis Metcalf	1376	114	113.26	0.083	0.082	100.65
Chipper Jones	3231	278	277.24	0.086	0.086	100.27
Nomar Garciaparra	1103	87	86.81	0.079	0.079	100.21
Eric Chavez	2379	218	218.17	0.092	0.092	99.92
Akinori Iwamura	3174	260	261.21	0.082	0.082	99.54
Abraham Nunez	1792	205	206.06	0.114	0.115	99.49
Alex Gordon	3609	318	321.97	0.088	0.089	98.77
Edwin Encarnacion	3620	308	314.99	0.085	0.087	97.78
Chad Tracy	1152	96	98.41	0.083	0.085	97.55
Wilson Betemit	1235	94	96.37	0.076	0.078	97.54
Nick Punto	2518	239	245.24	0.095	0.097	97.46
Jack Hannahan	1122	93	96.13	0.083	0.086	96.74
Wes Helms	1394	116	120.21	0.083	0.086	96.50
Greg Dobbs	1309	111	115.27	0.085	0.088	96.29
Kevin Kouzmanoff	3415	279	292.44	0.082	0.086	95.40
Ty Wigginton	1995	186	195.65	0.093	0.098	95.07
Mike Lamb	1320	108	113.69	0.082	0.086	95.00
Mark Reynolds	2542	196	208.42	0.077	0.082	94.04
Jose Bautista	3413	317	338.96	0.093	0.099	93.52
Casey Blake	3743	325	351.27	0.087	0.094	92.52
Josh Fields	2234	200	217.44	0.090	0.097	91.98
Miguel Cabrera	4055	330	361.80	0.081	0.089	91.21
Ryan Braun	2886	211	239.01	0.073	0.083	88.28
Garrett Atkins	4136	305	352.46	0.074	0.085	86.53

The bottom three on the list pretty much define all-hit and no-field.

Posted by David Pinto at 06:24 PM | Defense • | Probabilistic Model of Range | TrackBack (0)

Comments

Surprising to see Aramis Ramirez with the fourth best ratio given all the crap about him not caring enough about his defense.

And Cabrera doesn't help himself...

Posted by: Tan The Man at November 14, 2007 02:24 AM

There are some extremely good and extremely poor third basemen. Replacing Crede with Fields killed the White Sox. With Atkins lack of defensive ability and his inflated Coors hitting stats, why the heck have the Rockies stated they refuse to trade him? Ryan Braun was a bad fielder -- who knew?

Posted by: Sky at November 14, 2007 12:03 PM